Observing the recent market, the following questions arose.
Why do foreigners continue to suppress the index through selling and short selling in the 270,000-280,000 won range of Samsung Electronics stock price?
Then to what level do foreigners intend to suppress, in other words, to play the role of a market regulator? (Including derivative profits)
Shouldn't we apply Wall Street's 'conservative' perspective to valuation in order to properly reflect the foreign perspective? Such as PBR-based methods.
To what extent is the interest rate FOMC being offset by the Bank of Korea's two preemptive rate hikes?
Have there been changes in Samsung Electronics' fundamentals or valuation assessments by investment banks?
(Items 4 and 5 are future analytical tasks)
Therefore, to more faithfully reflect Wall Street's conservative perspective, I have made the following assumptions.
Assumption 1. The period of extreme volatility from May to July should be considered a period of 'market failure' and trend line reflection should be restricted.
Assumption 2. The time has come to reflect 'premium addition' due to the expansion of shareholder returns.
Assumption 3. The need for inferring foreigners' reactions to the abolition of breach of duty liability and the slowdown in the pace of commercial law amendments by scenario is emerging. The ruling party and government's drive to abolish breach of duty liability is proceeding too quickly.
Assumption 4. I intend to separately analyze the correlation between trading volume and Samsung Electronics/KOSPI. This includes the relationship between trading volume and volatility.
Tools and Limitations: Analysis tool Claude Opus 5.0 figures, minimized inference and text explanations while describing my intentions, and applied Claude output values for graphs and tables. Verification of this was duplicated with Gemini, but there is still a possibility of errors.
I. Corrected Multivariate Regression Analysis of Samsung Electronics/KOSPI
Please refer to the file for the main content.
Premium addition (discount reduction) was reflected based on the expansion execution of shareholder returns and future expansion implications, and scenarios were analyzed for both cases where the abolition of breach of duty liability was well supplemented and cases where the commercial law amendment was regressed.
Summary of Results: A premium was applied due to the execution and expansion implications of shareholder returns, and when the extreme volatility from May to July was removed/excluded through multiple indirect indicators (sidecars, CB's extreme frequency), the explanatory power of statistical regression analysis increased significantly and meaningfully.
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1s4VPAKBBpYiu4Zu3PlUjx1Lgooyou_3O/edit?usp=drive_link&ouid=114517361703957635844&rtpof=true&sd=true
II. Samsung Electronics Fair Stock Price Band Analysis
Through Section I above, Samsung Electronics' price bands for the current time point and positive/negative scenarios were analyzed as best/worst case scenarios.
Summary of Results: The current point in time is positioned within the fair stock price band. In a positive scenario, there is additional upside potential.
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1soj5bn-5MKyDyfDgY68OcK75jNYvyBGC/edit?usp=drive_link&ouid=114517361703957635844&rtpof=true&sd=true
III. Statistical Analysis of Samsung Electronics/KOSPI Stock Price Movement Estimation Based on Trading Volume
This is supplementary-feeling data in addition to the above items to understand the impact of trading volume.
Summary of Results: It appears to have particular significance for individual companies, and in the case of Samsung Electronics, 'concurrent indicators' such as foreign buying/individual selling were confirmed on the day trading volume surged -> there is a clear tendency for reversal to occur at the point of the 2nd business day after trading volume surges. Based on three existing theories published on the web, a brief analysis was conducted focusing on the theory regarding the possibility of reversal after a surge in trading volume (regardless of rise or fall).
However, please note that the theory itself includes content beyond quantitative information, so only an introduction was provided.
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1d0g_RGytNHSTqR5kaNNRcIC3R-xogtq5/edit?usp=drive_link&ouid=114517361703957635844&rtpof=true&sd=true
Limitations.
This is an analysis that makes theoretical assumptions and verifies them. Therefore, the focus is on the logic between assumptions and conclusions, while the issue of whether the assumptions themselves are 'right or wrong' is a different matter. I would appreciate it if you could distinguish these. Also, please note that the limitation of this being a 'post-hoc attempt' to correct the existing regression analysis's failure to properly explain the current stock price is clear.
After all, this is data that raises the question: shouldn't the volatility from May to July be defined as 'market failure'?
I determined that Hynix is not a stock I can handle regarding volatility issues. I would appreciate it if you note that only Samsung Electronics and KOSPI are applicable.
If it is not MS Word, files may be somewhat corrupted.
