Looking at the big picture, it would be upward trending, but
looking at the first quarter, we've come to a crossroads now.
Throughout this year, there has been an incredible uptrend where the 20-day divergence rarely showed two digits.
It means everyone who bought in the last 20 days has made profits.
Although this isn't arithmetically accurate, explaining it the way experts easily interpret it,
currently based on Samsung Electronics, the 20-day divergence is 91.2, meaning people who bought over the last 20 days have lost an average of 8.8%.
The 60-day divergence is 106.3, also the lowest since the beginning of this year. The average profit for those who bought over the last 60 days is 6.3%.
Based on Hynix, the 20-day is 92.8, the 60-day basis is 121.8. Normally the 200-day is often watched, and the 200-day is 224.1. The average profit for those who bought over the last 200 days is 124.1%. Looking at the 200-day divergence, it's still an unreasonable figure.
However, the reason now is a turning point is that Samsung Electronics has been meandering in a box range for 60 days, and the top is gradually lowering in a downward trend.
Today's earnings announcement couldn't ignite that cohesion, ultimately giving foreigners more selling opportunities.
The remaining semiconductor events are Hynix ADR listing and Hynix earnings announcement at the end of July. There's also TSMC announcement, but since it's not DRAM semiconductor, I'll exclude it for now.
If the market doesn't move here either, a correction of about 2-3 months with a maximum decline of -30% from the peak awaits.
If the adjustment prolonged like this, more retail investors will leave the market, and there's an anxiety that it could eventually lead to a larger decline.
However, foreigners have also trimmed through rebalancing, so the lowest line for the domestic market is seen around 6,000. So if it goes below 7,000, foreigners are also expected to accumulate, so I hope there won't be a larger decline, but looking at the current VKOSPI fear index alone, it's the highest on record, and if this fear prevails for a long time, for the time being we may not see the 20-day divergence consistently at three digits.
For the time being, there could be surprising rallies at each event.
If I were in that position, I would reduce positions at each time and hold cash to observe.
Because the market situation is not so bright, US SOX also looks bleak, and additionally the news that Michael Burry even shorted Micron adds to the situation where individual investors feel at a loss.
In times like this, reducing positions to ease worries, or taking a break from stocks and reopening your account around October is also a good approach.
Investing long-term is more advantageous than day-trading, and ultimately you need to prioritize your mental health to make profits. I wish everyone successful investing.
