Gartner, a business and technology insight provider, projected that global PC shipments will decrease by 10.4% and smartphone shipments by 8.4% year-on-year in 2026 due to soaring memory prices.
DRAM and SSD (Solid State Drive) prices are expected to rise by a combined 130% by the end of 2026. As a result, PC prices are projected to increase by 17%, and smartphone prices by 13%, with demand likely to concentrate on premium product lines.
Ranjit Atwal, Gartner Senior Director Analyst, said, “This year, PC and smartphone shipments will reach their lowest levels in the past decade.” He added, "Price increases will narrow consumer choices and extend device lifespans, leading to changes in upgrade cycles."
Due to rising costs, the average lifespan of enterprise PCs is expected to increase by 15% and personal consumer PCs by 20% by the end of 2026. This delayed replacement cycle is likely to raise concerns about increased security vulnerabilities and the complexity of managing aging devices.
Erosion of Entry-Level PC Market Share
The proportion of memory costs in PCs is expected to rise from 16% in 2025 to 23% in 2026. Atwal, Senior Director Analyst, said, "As cost increases become harder for manufacturers to absorb, the profitability of low-margin entry-level notebooks will weaken." He added, "Consequently, the entry-level PC market below $500 (approximately 700,000 won) is expected to disappear by 2028."
The AI PC market penetration rate reaching 50% is also projected to be delayed to 2028 due to rising AI PC prices.
Biggest Impact on Entry-Level Smartphones
The increase in device prices due to rising memory costs is expected to have a particularly significant impact on the entry-level smartphone market. Consumers are more likely to choose refurbished products, used models, or extend the lifespan of their existing smartphones. In contrast, premium smartphones with higher margins are expected to be relatively less affected.
▶ Source: https://m.kbench.com/?q=node/276508
