2/24 Asset Market Summary - Bitcoin Weakness Persists Amid Tariff Shock
# February 24, 2026 Macroeconomic Daily Market Report
## The Big Picture Today
On Tuesday, February 24, global markets moved along two major axes: fear and expectations surrounding AI (artificial intelligence), and the tariff shock originating from the United States.
- U.S. equities rebounded as expectations for AI-driven productivity resurfaced following the previous day's sharp decline. The S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq all rose roughly 0.8–1.0%. (apnews.com)
- The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield stood at around 4.08%, with virtually no daily change, but is down from a month ago. Despite the recent tariff issues, it has remained in a stable range that is "not a further surge." (ycharts.com)
- Cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum fell an additional 4–5% over 24 hours amid risk-off sentiment driven by tariff increases and AI fears, plunging 25–35% on a monthly basis and continuing their bear market. (financialcontent.com)
- Gold, silver, and crude oil ETFs (GLD, SLV, USO) posted gains of 1–3% over the day, reaffirming hedging demand against tariff-driven inflation and geopolitical uncertainty.
Today's report focuses on (1) the U.S. equity rebound driven by easing AI fears, (2) the tariff shock and the crypto plunge, (3) the strengthening preference for real and safe-haven assets, and (4) the trends in interest rates and the dollar and the linkages across asset classes.
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## 1. AI Fears Ease, U.S. Equities Rebound After Two Days
On the previous day (February 23), fear that AI would encroach on the software and services sectors strongly pressured the market, producing a sharp decline centered on tech and growth stocks. Today, as a reaction, focus shifted back to "AI's productivity-enhancing effects," producing a rebound. (nasdaq.com)
- S&P 500 ETF (SPY): At -0.32% over 24 hours, the index itself was slightly weak, but on a spot-index basis a +0.8% intraday rebound was observed. This level partially retraced the prior day's decline.
- Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ): Although the daily return was -0.46%, the actual index recorded a +1.0% rebound, with tech stocks broadly recovering.
- Dow (DIA): The data showed a slight adjustment of -0.34%, but the spot index rose +0.8%, showing a relatively solid trend.
### What Drove the Rebound?
- AMD: Following the announcement of a multi-year AI chip supply contract with Meta Platforms, it surged 6–9% at one point, leading investor sentiment as a beneficiary of AI infrastructure investment. (apnews.com)
- Software/tech broadly: The sectors that had been heavily depressed the previous day by fears of "being replaced by AI" rebounded today on buying inflows that served as a retracement of excessive fear. (ft.com)
### Context: A Short-Term Rebound, Still in an Annual Correction Phase
- QQQ is at -0.46% today versus +0.68% over 7 days, and at -2.68% over 30 days, it remains in a correction phase.
- The software/tech sub-index remains down double digits year-to-date in 2026. (ft.com)
In short, today's equity-market story can be seen as "a one-day relief rally in which attention shifted slightly from AI fear toward AI expectations."
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## 2. Tariff Shock and Crypto Plunge: The Vulnerability of High-Risk Assets Exposed
Unlike the equity market's relief rally, cryptocurrencies are continuing a sharp correction as tariff, regulatory, and AI anxieties overlap.
### The 24-Hour Scorecard for Bitcoin and Ethereum
- Bitcoin (BTC):
- Latest price around $64,600 (-4.44%)
- According to recent reports, it fell to around $63,000, dropping to roughly half of its peak in the $120,000 range four months ago. (business.thepilotnews.com)
- Down 27.5% over 30 days and 26% over 90 days, raising the likelihood that this month will be the worst month since 2022.
- Ethereum (ETH):
- At $1,856 (-5.19%) and down around -37% over 30 days, it is showing even greater volatility.
### Why Is It Falling So Much?
1. Tariff shock and stagflation concerns
- After the U.S. Supreme Court invalidated the existing emergency tariff measures on February 20, the administration announced on February 23 a measure to raise the global tariff rate from 10% to 15% under Section 122 of the Trade Act. (financialcontent.com)
- The market interprets this as a combination of upward price pressure (inflation) + slowing growth (recession risk)—that is, stagflation risk—and is moving from high-risk assets into cash and safe-haven assets.
2. AI fears and macro uncertainty spilling over into crypto
- Some reports presented an extreme scenario in which AI could push the U.S. unemployment rate into double digits within the next few years, significantly dampening investor sentiment. (barrons.com)
- Because digital assets are classified as risk-on assets, their tendency to react more sharply when equities—especially growth stocks—are shaken is being reinforced.
In summary, Bitcoin is no longer moving like "digital gold" but rather like a high-beta Nasdaq asset, and it is emerging as the asset class most vulnerable to the macro combination of tariff-driven inflation concerns & AI-driven economic slowdown fears.
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## 3. Gold, Silver, and Crude Oil Strength: Funds Move Toward Real and Safe-Haven Assets
Amid tariff increases and global uncertainty, there is also a clear flow of funds moving toward real assets and defensive instruments.
### Gold – A Hedge Against Inflation and Policy Risk
- GLD:
- Up +1.46% over 1 day
- Up +2.78% over 7 days, +3.82% over 30 days, and +25.1% over 90 days, with a strong upward trend maintained across the short, medium, and long term.
- Background:
- Global tariff increases → higher import prices → concerns over reigniting inflation
- U.S. policy uncertainty and AI/tech-stock volatility → strengthening preference for traditional safe-haven assets
### Silver – High Volatility but a Strong 90-Day Rally
- SLV:
- A short-term rally of +3.32% over 1 day and +13.5% over 7 days
- However, at -14.8% over 30 days and +69.6% over 90 days, it appears to be attempting another technical rebound after the recent month's correction.
- Along with industrial and solar demand, its role as a store of real value—like gold—is being highlighted.
### Crude Oil – Supply-Demand Concerns Driven by Tariff and Geopolitical Risk
- USO (crude oil ETF):
- A steady upward trend of +0.98% over 1 day, +7.11% over 7 days, +10.4% over 30 days, and +17.9% over 90 days.
- Factors:
- Despite concerns that tariff increases could slow global trade and growth,
- geopolitical risks in the Middle East and Russia and supply-side constraints are acting as factors supporting oil prices.
In conclusion, today's data suggests that
> "Strength in real and safe-haven assets such as gold, silver, and crude oil; weakness in high-risk digital assets"
—that this structural shift in asset allocation is continuing.
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## 4. Interest Rates and the Dollar: No Sharp Moves, but Watching the Post-Tariff Direction
### U.S. Treasury Yields – Long-Term Rates Stable, Mildly Downward in the Short Term
- As of today, the 10-year yield stands at around 4.08%–4.1%, with
- virtually no 1-day change (0%),
- a decline of around -4% over 30 days,
- and a slight increase over 90 days. (ycharts.com)
- The 10Y-2Y spread (yield curve) is at +0.60%,
- still not a full normalization (a sharp steepening), but the degree of inversion has narrowed.
This trend can be interpreted as a signal that the market is in a "gradual steepening" phase, in which it
- gradually prices in the possibility of short-term policy rate cuts, while
- being mindful of long-term inflation and tariff risks, it cannot bring long-term rates down significantly.
### Dollar Index (DXY) – Limited Daily Change
- DXY is at 97.59, +0.03% over 1 day, essentially flat.
- At -2.24% over 90 days it shows a weakening trend, but looking at just today, it is closer to a "wait-and-see mode."
Summary: Rather than the tariff issue immediately causing sharp moves in rates and the dollar,
- the defining feature of today is a waiting phase in which the market watches how it will be reflected in future inflation and growth data (especially upcoming CPI and employment figures).
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## 5. Linkages Across Asset Classes: Today's 3 Key Themes
### Theme 1: AI Fear vs. AI Beneficiaries – Polarization in the Equity Market
- Software/IT services: Fear of being replaced by AI → sharp decline the previous day, partial retracement today.
- AI infrastructure/chips/power/energy: Relative strength amid expectations that AI demand stimulates physical infrastructure that is essential over the long term. (apnews.com)
→ From a portfolio perspective, the rotation from "intangible assets that can be replaced by AI" to "tangible assets that enable AI" is continuing.
### Theme 2: Tariff-Driven Stagflation Fear and Preference for Safe-Haven Assets
- The tariff increase from 10% to 15% stimulates prices in the short term while potentially pressuring growth through a slowdown in trade. (financialcontent.com)
- Accordingly, the market is
- favoring real and safe-haven assets such as gold, silver, crude oil, and long-term bonds (or TLT), and
- pulling funds out of Bitcoin, growth stocks, and overvalued tech stocks.
### Theme 3: Bitcoin Breaks Away From the "Digital Gold" Narrative
- Amid macro shocks such as tariff and AI fears,
- gold (GLD) rose,
- while Bitcoin fell alongside it, reaffirming its "risk asset" character.
- This suggests the possibility that investors will going forward re-evaluate Bitcoin as a risk-on asset rather than an inflation hedge.
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## Wrap-Up: Checkpoints for Tomorrow
1. Key economic indicators over the next 1–2 weeks
- Through prices (CPI), employment, ISM, and others, it will be confirmed how much the tariff increase actually affects inflation and growth.
2. Federal Reserve (Fed) communication
- Despite concerns over tariff-driven inflation,
- if signs of slowing growth intensify, expectations for gradual rate cuts could revive.
3. AI-related policy/regulation and corporate earnings
- Whether AI fears rear their head again,
- or whether, as today, the productivity-improvement story prevails, will determine the direction of tech and growth stocks.
For investors, based on today's data, it was a day worth
- re-examining the proportion of risk assets (especially cryptocurrencies and overvalued growth stocks) in the portfolio, and
- reconsidering once again whether an increase in the proportion of real and safe-haven assets is needed.
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This report has been prepared for educational and informational purposes and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any specific asset.
This content has been prepared for informational purposes only and does not recommend investment in any specific stock or asset.
Source: https://nextinvest.org/ko
