3/13 Asset Markets — Inflation Reignites, Stocks and Precious Metals Weaken, Crypto Holds On
March 13, 2026 Macroeconomic Daily Market Report
## Today's Market at a Glance
As the fallout from the Iran war pushed oil prices back above $100 per barrel, today's (March 13) U.S. market can be summed up in one line: "renewed inflation fears → rising rates → weakness in stocks and precious metals."
- Oil surge: Driven by war-related supply concerns, WTI crude prices climbed back above $100, resuming their upward trend.(apnews.com)
- U.S. Treasury yields rise: The 10-year yield rose to 4.27%, up 1.43% in a single day (on a yield basis), continuing its upward trend on both a one-month and three-month basis.
- Stocks weaken across the board: The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow ETFs all declined (SPY -0.67%, QQQ -0.70%, DIA -0.23%). This broadly aligns with the declines in the actual indices tallied by AP.(apnews.com)
- Dollar, commodities, and bonds mixed: The dollar index strengthened (DXY +0.54%), while the long-term Treasury ETF (TLT) fell due to rising rates (-0.49%). Gold (-1.29%) and silver (-4.90%) were pushed down unusually sharply, while conversely the oil ETF (USO) extended its strength to +1.74%.
- Crypto holds firm: Bitcoin (+1.28%) and Ethereum (+1.84%) maintained a solid trend even amid the broad weakness in risk assets.
Below, we break down the four key themes that moved the market today.
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## 1. War-Driven Oil Surge — Inflation Fears Switched Back On
The single most important thing today is oil prices.
- According to AP, in the aftermath of the Iran war, oil prices — which had calmed at one point during today's session — rose again and broke back above $100 per barrel.(apnews.com)
- Simply put, oil is the economy's fuel cost. Because it is baked into nearly every cost — logistics, aviation, heating, even electricity — when oil prices rise, overall prices (inflation) are likely to stir again after a bit of a lag.
So why does it matter?
- Since the start of the year, the market had already priced in, to some degree, the expectation that "inflation has now been tamed, and rate cuts will come before long."
- But if oil rises above $100, the worry "could prices be going up again?" arises, which in turn leads to anxiety that the timing of rate cuts could be pushed back further.
In terms of today's figures:
- The oil ETF USO is up +1.74% on the day, +10.74% over 7 days, +52.68% over 30 days, and +75.05% over 90 days.
- Looking at the numbers alone, an "energy super rally" has unfolded over the past one to three months, and today can be seen as the day that rally was reignited along with the war news.
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## 2. 10-Year Treasury Yield at 4.27%… "Borrowing Money" Got More Expensive
10-Year Treasury Yield (4.27%)
- The 10-year Treasury yield is the interest rate the U.S. government pays to borrow money for 10 years.
- Today, with this yield rising to 4.27%, it was up +1.43% on a one-day (1D) basis, showing an upward trend across the 7-day, 30-day, and 90-day periods as well.
Why is it rising?
- A rise in rates means bond prices are falling.
- From an investor's standpoint, it's easy to think, "Inflation could last longer than expected going forward, so rather than buying bonds expensively now, I'll wait until higher rates come along."
- When many people wait like that, current demand for bonds falls and prices drop, and as a result yields rise.
In terms of today's data:
- 10-year yield: 4.2700 (1D +1.43%, 30D +2.64%, 90D +1.91%)
- 10-year real yield (TIPS real yield): 1.89% (1D +2.16%)
- The real yield is "the return you actually get in hand, excluding inflation."
- The fact that not only nominal yields are rising but real yields are climbing too means the market expects a fairly decent return from bonds even after accounting for inflation.
So what about bond ETFs?
- The long-term Treasury ETF TLT fell -0.49% today.
- Simply put, this is the classic pattern: when rates rise, the value of existing bonds falls → the price of long-term bond ETFs like TLT goes down.
Why does this matter to me?
- The 10-year yield serves as the "benchmark interest rate" for the broader economy — affecting mortgages, corporate loans, and even growth-stock valuations.
- When rates rise as they did today,
- buying a home,
- a company making investments, or
- investing in growth stocks in the market that bank on far-future profits
all become a somewhat more burdensome environment.
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## 3. Stocks Pressed Down by "Fuel Costs and Rates": Growth and Large-Cap Stocks Weaken Together
Of today's U.S. stock market, AP assessed that "the rise in oil prices stemming from the Iran war heightened inflationary pressure and deepened Wall Street's losses."(apnews.com)
Major ETF Movements
- S&P 500 ETF (SPY): 661.60, 1D -0.67%, 7D -1.60%, 30D -4.39%
- Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ): 593.05, 1D -0.70%, 7D -1.12%, 30D -3.27%
- Dow ETF (DIA): 466.41, 1D -0.23%, 7D -1.86%, 30D -6.85%
Interpretation Points
1. Looking at today alone:
- All three indices declined, but the magnitude was a "calm correction" of about 0.2–0.7%.
- However, considering the direction of oil and rates, the market leans closer to "not a panic right now, but the mood keeps getting worse."
2. Looking at the 7-day and 30-day together:
- On a 7-day basis, all three ETFs are also down roughly -1 to -2%, and on a 30-day basis they're off about -3 to -7%.
- Today's decline is less the start of a new crash and more an extension of the downward trend that has continued over the past month.
Why did this trend emerge? (Cause-and-effect breakdown)
- Cause 1: Rising oil prices → renewed inflation concerns
- Cause 2: Inflation concerns → dreams of rate cuts pushed back → long-term rates rise
- Result: Greater valuation burden on growth and large-cap stocks → SPY/QQQ/DIA decline together
Simply put, it's a picture where "with fuel costs jumping, the central bank seems unable to cut rates with peace of mind, and as a result the 'era of cheap money' that the stock market had been hoping for grows even more distant."
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## 4. Dollar Strength, Gold and Silver Weakness… The Crossroads of "Cash-Like Safe Assets vs. Precious Metals"
DXY (Dollar Index)
- Today at 99.65, 1D +0.54%, 30D +3.06%, showing a steady strengthening trend over the past month.
- The dollar index (DXY) is an indicator like "the dollar's fitness-test score," showing the strength of the dollar against major currencies such as the euro, yen, and pound.
Why is it strengthening?
- Rising oil prices and war news are classic factors that amplify uncertainty.
- In such situations, global capital tends to flock to "the most trustworthy place," and that No. 1 choice is still the U.S. dollar.
Precious metals ETFs went the exact opposite way
- Gold ETF (GLD): 460.84, 1D -1.29%, 7D -2.68%, but on a 90D basis +16.54%
- Silver ETF (SLV): 72.73, 1D -4.90%, 30D -5.00%, but on a 90D basis +29.65%
This can be interpreted as follows:
1. Over the past three months (90D), gold and silver had already enjoyed a strong "safe-asset rally" once, reflecting inflation and war risks.
2. Today is closer to a day when, as the dollar moved sharply, profit-taking poured out of gold and silver, which had risen a lot in the meantime.
Why does this matter to me?
- Gold and silver, traditionally regarded as "crisis-hedge assets," have already risen considerably over the past three months,
- so if you're considering further diversification going forward, you need to compare them alongside
- your dollar/cash allocation,
- bonds (especially short-term vs. long-term), and
- energy/commodity exposure.
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## 5. Is Crypto Marching to Its Own Beat? Bitcoin and Ethereum Close Higher
An interesting point is crypto (digital assets).
- Bitcoin (BTC): $71,433, 1D +1.28%, 7D +4.88%, 30D +6.55%
- Ethereum (ETH): $2,112, 1D +1.84%, 7D +6.75%, 30D +8.88%
Looking at the background:
- On a 90-day basis, Bitcoin is down -20.86% and Ethereum -32.20%, coming after a major correction over the past three months.
- Today's gains, separate from the war and inflation news, appear to have a strong character of "technical rebound and bargain-hunting after a steep drop."
Why did it rise, unlike stocks?
- On days when traditional assets (stocks, bonds, precious metals) all move in one direction (stocks, bonds, gold/silver weak; dollar, oil strong), some funds may diversify into crypto, which is relatively less correlated.
- Also, as discussions of regulation and institutional adoption continue, more people are viewing crypto as a hybrid of "digital gold + high-risk growth asset," so
- short-term inflation concerns,
- dollar strength, and
- the price correction already in place —
these three overlapping can be interpreted not as a pure risk-off (flight from risk) but as a reallocation of capital across sectors.
Why does this matter to me?
- Looking at today alone, the important point is that crypto did not move in exactly the same direction as traditional assets.
- From a portfolio perspective,
- how much crypto to hold over the long term, and at what allocation,
- and how to manage risk (volatility, leverage) in a war-and-inflation environment are becoming more important.
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## Wrap-Up: Today in One Sentence
It was "a day when a war-driven oil surge revived the embers of inflation, pulling up rates and the dollar while pressing down stocks and precious metals."
No one can know whether the market will rebound tomorrow or continue to correct, but
- oil prices and long-term rates (especially the 10-year),
- the dollar index (DXY), and
- the magnitude of the correction in gold and silver
are likely to serve as a "thermometer" for gauging the Fed's stance and global investor sentiment going forward.
From an individual investor's standpoint,
- rather than getting swept up in short-term price movements,
- it would be good to make today a day to check, "How much is my portfolio exposed to oil, rate, and war risks?"
This content is created for informational purposes only and does not recommend investment in any particular security or asset.
Source: https://nextinvest.org/ko
