4/1 Asset Markets - Hope for End of War, Inflation/Energy Anxiety
April 01, 2026 Macroeconomic Daily Market Report
## Today at a Glance
Today (April 1st, as of 6:31 PM Eastern Time) the market reflected a day where hope that "the war might end soon" and anxiety that "inflation and energy concerns remain" were simultaneously in play.
- The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell slightly to 4.30% for the day (-1.15%), taking a breather from the steep rate surge over the past month (+8.31% over 30 days).
- U.S. equity ETFs (SPY, QQQ, DIA) continued their rally with gains of 0.5-1.2%, extending the strong bounce from the previous day. Political remarks about the possibility of a ceasefire and peace regarding Iran war boosted investor sentiment. (money.mymotherlode.com)
- The crude oil ETF (USO) saw a -2.33% adjustment for the day, but remains in a high oil price phase with +42.5% over the past 30 days and +79.7% over 90 days. This is driven by concerns about unprecedented supply disruptions from the Iran war and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. (markets.financialcontent.com)
- Gold (GLD) surged +1.75% today, +5.17% over 7 days, and +10.47% over 90 days, playing its typical role as a "safe haven when anxiety rises."
- Bitcoin (BTC) showed minimal daily movement at -0.28%, but is down -23.3% over 90 days from its peak.
Why does this matter to me?
- Stocks are smiling at war relief expectations, while energy, commodities, and gold continue to signal high geopolitical and inflation risks.
- In other words, the market is sending a message that "it's too early to be completely at ease."
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## 1. Treasury Yields: 10-Year Taking a Breather
- 10-Year Treasury Yield: 4.30% (1 day -1.15%, 30 days +8.31%)
- 10-Year Real Yield (TIPS): 2.00% (1 day -1.96%, 30 days +16.28%)
- TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities): Bonds that automatically increase principal and interest by the inflation rate. Simply put, they show "how much you actually earn after accounting for inflation."
- Real Yield: The nominal rate minus inflation, or "the actual return after accounting for inflation."
Why did rates fall slightly today?
- Expectations for peace negotiations and ceasefire related to the Iran war increased, providing some reassurance to investors who had been worried about "a bigger shock." (money.mymotherlode.com)
- The sharp rate spike through yesterday had already priced in much of the bad news (war, oil prices, inflation concerns), and today's decline can be seen as a correction.
Why does this matter?
- The 10-year yield is the benchmark for mortgage and long-term loan rates.
- After rising more than 8% over the past 30 days and falling slightly today, borrowing rates haven't become significantly cheaper and remain at elevated levels.
- The fact that real yields jumped more than 16% in a month means the appeal of safe assets is rising, which could be a headwind for risky assets like stocks.
Another indicator worth monitoring is the term spread (10-year minus 2-year).
- Today it stands at 0.51%, declining -3.77% for the day (spread compression).
- Term Spread: The difference between short-term (2-year) and long-term (10-year) Treasury yields, where
- A positive value typically signals normal or expanding economic growth,
- A negative or very small value signals concerns about economic slowdown or recession.
- It hasn't normalized significantly, meaning economic uncertainty remains.
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## 2. Oil Prices and Energy: Short-Term Correction, but Still at "Record Highs"
- USO (Crude Oil ETF): $124.28 (1 day -2.33%, 30 days +42.54%, 90 days +79.70%)
- Over the past month and quarter, oil prices surged due to war-related Middle East supply disruptions.
- War with Iran, blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, and attacks on major export terminals in Saudi Arabia and Qatar have reduced supply by millions of barrels per day. (markets.financialcontent.com)
Why did it fall 2% today?
- The U.S. and its allies have momentum in diplomatic and ceasefire efforts, somewhat easing anxiety about the worst-case scenario (prolonged full Middle East blockade).
- The market's sentiment is "the war hasn't completely ended, but we've come down a bit from the peak." (money.mymotherlode.com)
Why does this matter to me?
- Oil prices directly connect to gas prices, airfare, logistics costs, and heating bills.
- Looking at 30-day and 90-day returns, even though it fell slightly today, the likelihood of fuel prices becoming cheaper anytime soon is low.
- For individuals, especially those who drive frequently or have high heating and electricity costs, wallet pressure is likely to persist.
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## 3. Gold and Silver: "Insurance Assets" That Shine in Uncertainty
- GLD (Gold ETF): 437.82 (1 day +1.75%, 7 days +5.17%, 90 days +10.47%)
- SLV (Silver ETF): 68.03 (1 day -0.16%, 7 days +4.32%, 90 days +5.60%)
Gold was strong today as well.
- In a word, gold's price increase reflects the psychology: "The more uncertain the world becomes, the more people prefer gold bars to paper."
- In an environment mixing war, oil shock, inflation concerns, and economic slowdown worries,
- Gold is "insurance that rises when risks grow,"
- Treasuries are "safe assets that pay interest" — and both are being sought simultaneously.
Why does this matter?
- If your stock allocation is too high, this environment signals portfolio volatility could increase.
- Gold and silver ETFs let you take out insurance through your brokerage account without physically buying gold,
- But after short-term surges, there's also price volatility (pullback) risk.
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## 4. U.S. Stocks: Extending "Relief Rally" as War Tension Eases
- SPY (S&P 500 ETF): 655.10 (1 day +0.73%, 7 days -0.26%, 30 days -4.30%)
- QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF): 583.90 (1 day +1.16%, 7 days -0.67%, 30 days -3.86%)
- DIA (Dow ETF): 465.65 (1 day +0.53%, 7 days +0.33%, 30 days -4.61%)
The U.S. stock market continues its "relief rally" following yesterday's pattern.
- Yesterday (March 31st), the Dow index surged over 1,100 points, posting its largest gain since last spring, and today is extending that momentum. (apnews.com)
- The catalyst is political statements and peace signals regarding the possibility of an early end to the Iran war. The market is betting slightly more on the side of "we've avoided the worst." (money.mymotherlode.com)
However, looking at 30-day returns,
- All major indices are bouncing back after suffering roughly -4% corrections.
- This is less "a completely new bull market" and more
- A pullback following
- Early-to-mid March adjustments from war, surging oil, and rising rates,
- As tension eases.
Why does this matter to me?
- In the short term, your account returns can swing wildly on a single headline about war.
- After taking a hard hit in March, a rally like today's is "disappointing for those who cut losses, a breath of relief for those who held on" — a typical pattern.
- For long-term investors,
- Keep in mind that risk factors like war, oil, rates, and inflation haven't been fully resolved,
- And it's worth checking the balance between cash, bonds, and defensive sectors rather than being too aggressive.
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## 5. Dollar, Global Stocks, Crypto: Risk-On Bias, but Not Complete "Risk Appetite"
### Dollar Index (DXY)
- DXY: 100.18 (1 day -0.28%, 30 days +2.29%, 90 days +1.81%)
- The DXY is like a comprehensive strength index of the dollar against six major currencies (euro, yen, pound, etc.).
Today the dollar showed weakness (-0.28%).
- When war and safe-asset preferences were maximized, the dollar was strong,
- But today, with stocks rising and war/oil fears easing, some funds have left the dollar.
### Global ETFs: Europe, Japan, Emerging Markets
- VGK (Europe): 83.62 (1 day +1.44%, 7 days +2.27%)
- EWJ (Japan): 86.48 (1 day +2.42%, 7 days +2.04%)
- VWO (Emerging Markets): 54.21 (1 day +0.30%, 7 days -0.24%)
The pattern is:
- Europe and Japan: Like the U.S., experiencing a relief rally on expectations for war easing and energy/commodity peaks.
- Emerging Markets: Up slightly today, but down -5% over 30 days, showing the lingering impact of dollar strength and high oil prices.
### Crypto: Bitcoin and Ethereum
- BTC: $68,032 (1 day -0.28%, 7 days -4.59%, 90 days -23.34%)
- ETH: $2,135 (1 day +1.51%, 7 days -1.51%, 90 days -28.84%)
Looking at the past 90 days,
- Both Bitcoin and Ethereum have undergone significant corrections from their highs.
- Today
- Bitcoin was flat,
- Ethereum bounced +1.5%, showing
- A modest revival of risk appetite similar to stocks.
Why does this matter?
- The dollar hasn't weakened dramatically, and crypto hasn't fully recovered.
- The market hasn't yet shouted "All in on risk assets!"
- Instead, it looks like investors are holding safe assets (gold, bonds) in one hand
- While cautiously reaching for stocks and crypto in the other.
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## Today's 3 Key Takeaways
1. War Risk Peak Out vs. Still-High Oil Prices
- While stocks and Treasuries continue their relief rally on peace expectations,
- Energy and oil prices remain at levels that pressure household and business costs.
2. Interest Rates, "Catching Breath at the Summit"
- While 10-year and real yields fell slightly today,
- Considering the surge over the past 30 days, borrowing and discount rates remain elevated.
3. Dollar and Global Assets: Cautious Risk-On
- The dollar weakening slightly and stocks in Europe, Japan, and the U.S. rising together signal a revival of risk appetite,
- But gold, Treasuries, and oil prices suggest we're far from a complete relief phase.
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## What Today Means for Individual Investors
- For those with large debt or mortgages:
- Even though rates fell slightly today, considering the surge over the past month, "felt interest rate burden" is still significant.
- If you have a high proportion of variable-rate debt, it's worth reviewing repayment plans for possible further increases.
- For stock-focused investors:
- With the market moving 1,000 points on a single war headline, excessive leverage or all-in short-term strategies are risky.
- The March correction plus recent relief rally are "typical patterns of volatile markets," so be cautious about emotion-driven trading unrelated to your long-term plan.
- For those with high cash positions:
- Given rate, oil, and war risks, a staged entry spread over multiple purchases might be more rational than jumping in all at once.
- For those worried about inflation:
- Combining oil, gold, and real yield data, the market clearly views inflation (or re-inflation) risk as quite serious.
- Take today to review your total picture—living costs, debt, and investment portfolio—and ask, "Where does it hurt most if prices keep rising?"
This content is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or recommendations for any specific securities or assets.
Source: https://nextinvest.org/ko
