4/17 Asset Markets – Oil Price Plunge, Stock Market Rally, and Bitcoin Surge

# April 17, 2026 Macroeconomic Daily Market Report

## 1. Today's Market at a Glance

Key One-Line Summary:

After Iran announced the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices plunged nearly 10% in a single day, sending U.S. stocks to yet another all-time high. Risk appetite returned in full force, with Bitcoin and Ethereum surging alongside equities. (apnews.com)

- S&P 500 ETF (SPY): 710.27, +1.23% (1D) – A further rally atop a strong uptrend, with positive returns across the 7-day, 30-day, and 90-day periods

- Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ): 648.78, +1.30% (1D) – Tech-heavy growth stocks also joined the rally strongly

- Oil ETF (USO): 116.04, -7.79% (1D) – Still up +61.95% on a 90-day basis, but today was a sharp decline day

- Bitcoin (BTC): $77,482, +3.09% (1D)

- Ethereum (ETH): $2,432, +3.53% (1D) (coinshares.com)

So why does this matter?

> Oil price plunge → expectation of easing inflation pressure → expectation of easing interest rate burden → a day when risk assets such as stocks and crypto all smiled together.

## 2. Theme ① Oil Price Plunge: The 'Policy Gift' Created by the Reopening of the Strait of Hormuz

### 2-1. What Happened?

- Iran announced it would reopen the Strait of Hormuz to commercial oil tankers, rapidly cooling fears of supply disruptions. (apnews.com)

- U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) spot prices plunged approximately 9–10% in a single day, retreating to levels seen at the start of the Iran war. (apnews.com)

- In ETF terms, USO also recorded a significant decline of -7.79% (1D).

The Strait of Hormuz: This is a critical sea lane — essentially the "inlet of an oil pipeline" — through which Gulf oil-producing nations ship their crude. When it is blocked, global oil prices spike; when it opens, they can plummet.

### 2-2. Why Did the Market React So Sensitively?

- Over the past several months, Iran-Middle East tensions had driven oil prices up +61.95% on a 90-day basis, meaning the market had been carrying a heavy fear of "what if prices rise even further?"

- Today's announcement spread the perception that "the worst has been avoided," releasing all the accumulated anxiety in one go.

Simply put,

> Households and businesses alike had been worried that an "oil bomb" might drop, given the relentlessly rising fuel prices,

> and today, it was as if the "defuse" button was pressed.

### 2-3. Why Does This Matter to Me?

- Falling oil prices → expectations of lower gasoline and logistics costs, helping to ease pressure on consumer prices and shipping fees. (wcbe.org)

- If inflation (rising prices) is brought under control, credit card interest rates and mortgage rates may rise less, or there could even be room for them to fall later.

- Gas station prices won't drop sharply right away, but forecasts suggest gasoline prices could come down within a few weeks. (wcbe.org)

## 3. Theme ② Stocks: All-Time High Rally Triggered by Oil Price Plunge

### 3-1. How Did the Indices Move?

- S&P 500 ETF (SPY): 710.27, +1.23% (1D)

- Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ): 648.78, +1.30% (1D)

- Dow ETF (DIA): 494.22, +1.77% (1D)

On a spot index basis, both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq set new all-time highs once again, having broken records multiple times just this week. (apnews.com)

S&P 500: A benchmark index comprising 500 large-cap U.S.-listed companies — think of it as the "average score" of the U.S. stock market.

### 3-2. Why Did It Rise So Much? (Cause and Effect First)

1. Oil price plunge → expectation of easing inflation pressure

- Expectations that energy, transportation, and raw material costs could fall

- acted to simultaneously improve both corporate future earnings and consumer spending capacity.

2. Expectation of easing interest rate burden

- Today's 10-year Treasury yield rose slightly to 4.32%, +0.70% (1D), but

- the medium-term expectation that "if oil falls this much, the central bank (the Fed) probably won't keep rates high for too long" underpinned bullish sentiment in the stock market.

3. 'Relief rally' sentiment

- With war, oil, and inflation all weighing on the market simultaneously,

- today's news that at least the oil and logistics risk had eased

- prompted investors to switch into "let's go ahead and buy more stocks" mode. (apnews.com)

### 3-3. What Was the Flow Within Sectors?

Looking at detailed sector data, (monexa.ai)

- Tech/growth stocks: Still strong. The Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) rise of 1.30% was because

- expectations of easing rate pressure

- worked in favor of growth stocks valued on the premise of "making a lot of money in the future."

- Utilities and defensive stocks also rose in tandem

- Power and utility companies such as XEL and CEG also gained 1–3%, showing that this was not solely a day driven by fears of an economic slowdown.

### 3-4. Why Does This Matter to Me?

- If you are invested in U.S. stocks or global ETFs,

- a strong rally like today's translates directly into a plus for your account.

- In any market — domestic or international — an all-time high rally in U.S. indices acts as a psychological "prime pump" for risk assets broadly.

- Today serves as a vivid reminder that your account can swing dramatically whenever oil prices or war-related news shifts sharply.

## 4. Theme ③ Interest Rates & Bonds: Long-Term Rates Rise Slightly, 'Inverted' Yield Curve Moves Toward Normalization

### 4-1. Today's Rate Numbers at a Glance

- 10-year U.S. Treasury yield: 4.32%, +0.70% (1D)

- 10-year real yield (TIPS-based): 1.93%, +1.58% (1D)

- Yield curve (10Y – 2Y spread): 0.54%, +1.89% (1D)

Yield curve (10Y–2Y spread): The value obtained by subtracting the 2-year Treasury yield from the 10-year yield.

- Positive means "long-term rates are higher" = a normal structure,

- Negative means "short-term rates are higher" = frequently cited as a leading indicator of recession.

Over the past several months, short- and long-term rates had remained inverted,

- but today the spread rose to +0.54%, showing another step toward normalization.

### 4-2. Why Did Stocks Rise Even as Long-Term Rates Climbed?

The usual formula — "rising rates = falling stocks" — comes to mind, but today both rose simultaneously, as an exception.

To simplify the reason,

> It was because rates rose "not for bad reasons, but out of expectations for a less bad world."

- Oil price plunge → easing fears of economic recession → "the U.S. economy might not be as bad as thought" → recovery of long-term growth expectations

- At the same time, with the risk of runaway inflation reduced, expectations held that "the Fed won't keep raising rates indefinitely"

In other words, the combination of long-term growth and medium-term price stability explains today's simultaneous rise in both rates and stocks.

### 4-3. Why Does This Matter to Me?

- Long-term rates (10-year) are

- closely tied to mortgage rates, long-term student loan rates, and corporate bond rates.

- The normalization of the yield curve

- can be interpreted as a signal that "immediate recession fears have eased somewhat."

- However, absolute rate levels are still in the 4% range, meaning

- interest income from deposits and bonds remains higher than in the past

- while the cost of leverage (investing with borrowed money) is also high — worth keeping in mind.

## 5. Theme ④ Safe Haven vs. Risk Assets: Diverging Moves in Gold, Silver, Bonds, and Crypto

### 5-1. Gold, Silver, and Bond ETF Summary

- Gold ETF (GLD): 445.93, +1.33% (1D), 90-day +5.85%

- Silver ETF (SLV): 73.55, +3.24% (1D), 90-day -9.22%

- 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT): 87.07, +0.92% (1D)

Today's notable feature was,

> It was a day when "risk assets (stocks and crypto) rose, and safe havens (gold and long-term Treasuries) also rose together."

Generally,

- When markets are nervous: gold and bonds↑, stocks and crypto↓

- When markets are optimistic: gold and bonds↓, stocks and crypto↑ — these patterns tend to emerge,

but today both sides showed strength simultaneously.

This can be interpreted as a signal that investors are

- rather than "going all in" on one side,

- choosing "balanced risk-taking" — maintaining a safety net (gold/bonds) while gradually increasing exposure to risk assets.

### 5-2. Why Does This Matter to Me?

- When thinking about how to mix stocks, bonds, commodities (gold/silver), and crypto in your portfolio,

- a day like today when everything rises simultaneously shows the possibility of "a structure where you can pursue returns while keeping hedges (risk diversification) in place."

- In particular, gold (GLD) had been nearly flat over the past 30 days (+0.27%), but

- today it rose alongside stocks, revealing the market's underlying belief that inflation and geopolitical risks have not fully disappeared.

## 6. Theme ⑤ Crypto: Bitcoin and Ethereum Surge Together on 'Risk Asset Warmth'

### 6-1. The Numbers First

- Bitcoin (BTC): $77,482, +3.09% (1D), 7-day +6.15%, 30-day +8.75%, 90-day -18.53%

- Ethereum (ETH): $2,432, +3.53% (1D), 7-day +8.28%, 30-day +10.38%, 90-day -26.50% (coinshares.com)

Looking at the past 90 days, both are still deep in correction territory (-18% to -26%), but

- over the past 1–4 weeks, a clear rebound trend has emerged (positive 7-day and 30-day returns),

- with today's additional jump added on top.

### 6-2. Why Did It Rise So Much Today?

Summarizing today's crypto market news and flow, (coinshares.com)

1. 'Relief rally' spreading across risk assets broadly

- With news of the oil price plunge and stock market all-time highs coinciding,

- crypto also saw buying momentum flow in as part of the "risk asset basket."

2. Improvement in on-chain and fund flows

- Some research identified fresh capital inflows into Bitcoin and Ethereum,

- with signs of capital reallocation toward Ethereum in particular.

3. Psychological factors

- Recent analysis has included optimistic forecasts suggesting "Bitcoin could reach $85,000 by end of April,"

- stimulating the expectation sentiment of retail investors. (crypto-economy.com)

In a single line,

> "When war and oil fears eased, the first things to jump were those in the corner already known for the most volatility — crypto."

### 6-3. Why Does This Matter to Me?

- Even if you don't invest directly in crypto,

- the direction of Bitcoin and Ethereum serves as a thermometer showing "how much risk the market is prepared to take on."

- A combination like today's —

- stocks↑, crypto↑, oil↓ —

- signals that "in the short term, fears about the economy and inflation have diminished."

- However, looking at 90-day volatility (rebounding from -20% range back to +10% range),

- it serves as a reminder that crypto remains an asset that can swing wildly in a single day.

## 7. Today's Wrap-Up: What Points Should We Watch Going Forward?

1. Whether oil prices stay suppressed

- The key question is whether today's plunge was a temporary 'news shock,'

- or whether actual supply disruptions have been resolved, leading to a medium-to-long-term downtrend.

2. Changes in the Fed's (U.S. central bank's) tone

- If falling oil prices ease the inflation trajectory,

- upcoming Fed officials' remarks and meeting minutes may subtly shift in how they reference "rate cuts."

3. Whether stocks and crypto are 'overheating'

- With the S&P 500 and Nasdaq consecutively setting all-time highs,

- it is worth checking whether a rally like today's is leaning more on "relief sentiment" than on fundamentals (earnings and economic conditions).

> In summary, today was a day of "relief rally gifted by the oil price plunge."

> The key question for tomorrow and next week is whether this relief turns into a credible, sustained trend,

> or ends as a temporary event easily reversed by the next headline.

This content is written for informational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation to invest in any specific stock or asset.

Source: https://nextinvest.org/ko