5/13 Asset Market – Tech Stock Rally Despite Wholesale Price Shock
# May 13, 2026 Macroeconomic Daily Market Report
## 1. Today's Market at a Glance
Key One-Line Summary:
- Wholesale Price (PPI) Shock → Interest Rate & Oil Price Rise → Most Sectors Decline, However
- AI Tech Stock Rally → S&P 500 & Nasdaq Close at All-Time Highs Again. (apnews.com)
Index Performance (Local Close, May 13, 2026):
- S&P 500 ETF (SPY): +0.56% (742.31, All-Time High Range) (apnews.com)
- Nasdaq-100 ETF (QQQ): +0.96% (714.05, All-Time High Range) (apnews.com)
- Dow ETF (DIA): -0.15% (497.14) – Relatively Weak Due to High Weight of Cyclical and Value Stocks (apnews.com)
Interest Rates, Dollar, and Commodities:
- 10-Year Treasury Yield: 4.46% (+0.90% 1 day) – Rose Again to Near 10-Month Highs (finance.yahoo.com)
- 10-Year Real Rate (TIPS): 1.99% (+2.05% 1 day)
- U.S. Dollar Index (DXY): 98.35 (+0.46% 1 day)
- Oil Price ETF (USO): -1.57% 1 day, +10.56% 30 days, +85.96% 90 days – Taking a Breath After Recent 3-Month Surge
- Gold (GLD): -0.56% 1 day, -4.63% 90 days – Pressure from Rising Real Rates
What Does This Mean for Investors?
Today was a day when "bad inflation, good tech stocks" appeared simultaneously. As inflation indicators came in hotter than expected, bond and mortgage rates and oil prices rose, which is negative for economic growth and consumption in the medium to long term. However, in the short term, growth expectations centered on AI and semiconductors overshadowed this, and the rally continued to be led by tech leaders. In other words,
> "The indices look good on the surface, but underneath many stocks are struggling"
is a point to keep in mind. (apnews.com)
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## 2. Interest Rates: 10-Year Yield Retesting 4.5%, Real Rates Rising in Tandem
### 2-1. What Happened Today?
- The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to 4.46%, up 0.90% in one day. (reddit.com)
- During intraday trading, it rose to around 4.48%, retesting 10-month highs. (finance.yahoo.com)
- The 10-year real rate (TIPS) also rose to 1.99%, up +2.05% in one day.
- The yield curve (10-year–2-year spread) narrowed slightly in the short term (-2.13% 1 day), but on a monthly basis since April, it continues to maintain normalization (turning positive).
### 2-2. Why Did It Rise? (Key Reasons)
1. Wholesale Prices (PPI) Were 'Hotter Than Expected'
- April's Producer Price Index (PPI), announced this morning, came in higher than market expectations, signaling that 'price pressures at the corporate level remain strong.' (xtb.com)
- Since PPI represents prices paid by businesses, these costs can later be passed on to consumer prices (CPI). With CPI already coming in higher than expected yesterday (May 12), the perception that 'inflation is heating up again' has been reinforced. (bls.gov)
2. Hawkish Statements from Fed Officials
- Boston Federal Reserve President Susan Collins said today, "Additional rate increases may be necessary if inflation pressures do not subside." (investing.com)
- The market is shifting from expecting 'rates to be cut soon' to wondering 'could they be raised again?'
3. Investors Demanding 'Higher Yields' in Recent 10-Year Auctions
- In yesterday's (May 12) 10-year Treasury auction, the final yield was 4.468%, higher than the coupon (4.375%). This means investors are saying, 'We'll buy Treasuries, but we want higher yields to compensate.' (dukascopy.com)
### 2-3. Connection to Long-Term Structural Trends
- The Fed's benchmark rate has declined from 5.33% in early 2024 to 3.64% in April 2026, showing a gradual easing trend over more than 2 years. (bls.gov)
- The 10-year nominal interest rate showed a slight downward trend (-10%) from its peak in October 2023 (4.8%) to 4.32% in April 2026, but in recent days it has approached 4.5% again, putting us at a turning point where this downward trend could reverse.
- The 10-year real interest rate also fell slightly from 2.2% in November 2023 to 1.94%, but has now risen back toward 2%, solidifying an environment where "borrowing money is genuinely becoming expensive."
### 2-4. What Does This Mean for Investors?
- Bond investors: Having already experienced significant price declines from the sharp rate hikes of 2022-23, this is a period when sensitivity to additional interest rate increases (price declines) is rising again. This is why long-term bonds (TLT) are down 0.19% today and -3.88% over 90 days.
- Stock investors: When interest rates rise, it means:
- Future profits of growth stocks must be calculated at a higher discount rate → theoretically negative for stock prices
- Companies with high debt face increased interest expense burden → pressure on financially vulnerable companies
- Individuals/real economy: When 10-year interest rates rise, mortgage rates follow suit. Today's mortgage market report revealed that 30-year refinance rates surged 0.16 percentage points (16 basis points) in a single day. (themortgagereports.com)
- For those who already own a home, this can be a factor supporting housing prices, but for those buying their first home, it's bad news making homeownership further out of reach.
For now, the balance is "interest rates are inconvenient, but AI expectations are stronger," but if rates continue to rise, it could ultimately become a burden for both stocks and the real economy. Remember that.
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## 3. Inflation: Both CPI and PPI Are 'Hotter Than Expected'
### 3-1. Data Summary
- Consumer prices (CPI): The April CPI announced yesterday (May 12) maintained core inflation (excluding food and energy) at levels higher than expected. (bls.gov)
- Producer prices (PPI): The April PPI announced today (May 13) also exceeded expectations and was characterized as a "wholesale price shock." Immediately after this news, stock index futures and the market wavered after the opening, with most sectors except technology stocks showing weakness. (apnews.com)
### 3-2. Structural Trends
- The CPI index has continued to trend upward since May 2021, and while the pace of increase slowed during 2023-25, we've entered a period in 2026 where the upward slope is slightly steepening again. (Up 1.51% over 2 months from February to April 2026)
- Core PCE (the inflation metric most closely watched by the Federal Reserve) has also shifted to a mild upward phase (+1.42%) since the end of 2025.
In other words, rather than "inflation is under control,"
> "The peak seems to be behind us, but it's stubbornly holding at elevated levels, and recently it's been warming up again"
is closer to the mark.
### 3-3. What Does This Mean for Investors?
- Fading expectations for rate cuts: If inflation remains elevated, the Fed will struggle to lower its benchmark rate quickly. The market has already failed to see rate cuts at the pace expected during 2024-25, and now discussions of "additional rate increases" are coming back into play. (investing.com)
- Real income pressure: If prices rise but wage growth doesn't keep pace, households see their real purchasing power decline.
- Growth stocks vs. defensive stocks: In a high-inflation environment, competitive companies that can easily pass increased raw materials and labor costs to prices have a relative advantage. Conversely, companies with high cost pressures but weak pricing power see profitability easily eroded.
---
## 4. Stocks: AI and Semiconductors Pull Up the Index, Everything Else Lags
### 4-1. Strong Index but Weak Breadth
Today's U.S. stock market is characterized by "a strong index, but broad weakness."
- S&P 500: +0.6%, hitting an all-time high (apnews.com)
- Nasdaq: +1.2%, also hitting an all-time high (apnews.com)
- Dow: -0.1%, declining (apnews.com)
- According to reports, about two-thirds of stocks within the S&P 500 declined, yet a handful of large-cap tech stocks lifted the index. (reddit.com)
Looking at ETFs:
- SPY: +0.56% (1 day), +8.19% (30 days), +9.26% (90 days)
- QQQ: +0.96% (1 day), +15.66% (30 days), +19.03% (90 days)
- DIA: -0.15% (1 day), +3.16% (30 days), +0.88% (90 days)
In other words, over the past 1-3 months, much of the market's gains have come from "a small number of large-cap tech stocks," and the Dow, which has a large weighting in traditional cyclical and value stocks, is essentially flat.
### 4-2. Why Are Tech Stocks So Strong?
1. AI (artificial intelligence) expectations have reignited
- Semiconductor and AI-related stocks that experienced a brief correction yesterday rebounded significantly today.
- Nvidia, Micron, ON Semiconductor and others showed gains in the 2-11% range, lifting the index. (apnews.com)
- In particular, Nvidia again reached an all-time high today and strongly pushed up the S&P 500 and Nasdaq through its market cap effect. (fool.com)
2. Political/Diplomatic Events (Expectations for Trump-Xi Jinping Talks)
- Reports of President Trump inviting Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang to his China visit itinerary emerged, highlighting expectations for easing export restrictions on AI chips to China. (apnews.com)
- The expectation that "we can again sell more high-performance chips to China" is being linked to a re-evaluation across the semiconductor and AI value chain.
3. Persistent 'Big Tech Concentration' Structure
- Investors
- The greater the uncertainty—such as inflation, high interest rates, and geopolitical risks—
- tend to concentrate more in "a handful of large-cap stocks that still generate good profits and have clear competitive advantages."
### 4-3. What Does This Mean for Investors?
- Index Investors:
- If you hold S&P 500 or Nasdaq ETFs, your account is in a happy situation for now.
- However, since the majority of gains are concentrated in a few stocks, the structural risk that the entire index could be shaken simultaneously if these stocks falter is growing.
- Individual Stock Investors:
- Trends remain strong in AI, semiconductors, and mega-cap Big Tech, but this is a period where volatility (downside during corrections) is also increasing.
- Traditional manufacturing, consumer, and financial stocks are under a triple burden of inflation, interest rates, and commodity costs, making it a period where "you can't feel reassured just by looking at the index."
- The Need for Sector Diversification:
- If you don't hold any AI-related stocks in this cycle, it will be difficult to keep up with market returns, but
- at the same time, if you're excessively all-in only on AI-related stocks, you could become very vulnerable to future policy, regulation, and economic cycles.
---
## 5. Currencies and Commodities: Dollar Shows Modest Strength, Oil Adjusts After 3-Month Surge
### 5-1. Dollar (DXY)
- Today, the dollar index (DXY) showed modest strength at 98.35, up 0.46% for the day.
- On a 30-day basis it's down 0.71%, but on a 90-day basis it's up 1.40%, showing that after short-term weakness it has recently turned back toward strength.
- Looking at the long term, there's a gradual dollar weakness trend, having declined from around 108.5 in December 2024 to 98.3 levels in May 2026.
Meaning:
- Dollar strength → can lead to emerging market currency weakness and increased foreign debt burdens.
- However, today's movement is more of a fine adjustment based on interest rates and prices rather than a "flight to safety."
### 5-2. Commodities: Gold, Silver, and Oil
- Gold (GLD): -0.56% (1 day), -4.63% (90 days)
- While known as an "inflation hedge asset," it's actually more sensitive to real interest rates and the dollar. As real rates approach 2%, gold faces headwinds.
- Silver (SLV): +0.78% (1 day), +12.88% (7 days), +15.93% (30 days)
- Given that industrial demand (solar panels, electronic components, etc.) accounts for a larger share than gold, it can show stronger resilience when economic and manufacturing expectations revive.
- Oil (USO): down 1.57% (1 day), but up 10.56% (30 days) and up 85.96% (90 days)—it's taking a breather after a near-surge over the past 3 months.
- Oil price increases directly stimulate inflation (especially transportation and energy costs), and combined with PPI and CPI reheating like today, they amplify medium-term inflation risks.
Meaning for Investors:
- The combination of rising real rates and gold price adjustment is a period where, if your portfolio has become overweight in gold, you might consider taking some profits and rebalancing.
- Since oil prices have already risen significantly, energy stock investment requires asking yourself whether "this is lagging entry, or a structure you can hold through the next cycle."
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## 6. Crypto: Bitcoin and Ethereum Taking a Breather Near Highs
- Bitcoin (BTC): $79,653, down 1.03% (1 day), down 2.18% (7 days), up 7.00% (30 days), up 20.28% (90 days)
- Ethereum (ETH): $2,259, down 0.66% (1 day), down 3.88% (7 days), down 4.67% (30 days), up 16.09% (90 days)
Interpretation:
- This is a typical pattern of short-term adjustment near highs.
- In an environment where interest rates and the dollar are rising, crypto as a risk asset can also face short-term pressure.
Meaning for Investors:
- For investors already heavy in crypto, this is a time when spreading entries and exits across multiple phases is more favorable for risk management than "betting big all at once."
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## 7. Today in the Long-Term Context
1. Inflation:
- After high inflation in 2021-23, the rate of increase slowed, but since entering 2026, CPI, PPI, and core PCE have all been stubbornly rising again.
2. Interest Rates and Bonds:
- While benchmark rates have come down since 2024, 10-year Treasury yields and real rates appear stuck at elevated levels.
- Today's re-test of 10-year yields at 4.5% and real rates approaching 2% signal the question "Is tightening really over?" being asked again.
3. Stocks:
- While the index looks impressive due to AI, semiconductors, and Big Tech, underneath it most stocks are facing the reality of rising inflation, interest rates, and oil prices.
4. Dollar and Commodities:
- The dollar has returned to short-term strength, and oil prices have already risen significantly over 3 months. This is a negative combination for future prices and growth.
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## 8. Preparing for Tomorrow – Key Checkpoints for Individual Investors
1) Check if Your Portfolio is 'Overweight in AI and Big Tech'
- If most of your gains are coming from a handful of stocks, when these stocks falter, your entire portfolio shakes along with them.
- Even with the same index ETF, just taking a look at sector and individual stock weightings can help you better understand the risk.
2) Check Your Exposure to Interest-Rate Sensitive Assets
- Exposure to long-term bonds (TLT), high dividend stocks, REITs, and highly leveraged companies will suffer greatly if rates rise further.
3) Risk Management from a Living Expenses and Borrowing Perspective
- Rising 10-year and mortgage rates are a direct variable for anyone planning to buy a home or refinance in the future.
- If possible, it's good to calculate interest burden scenarios in advance (for example, rates rising an additional 0.5-1 percentage point).
4) Investment Strategies by Inflation Scenario
- When inflation raises its head again,
- high-quality companies with pricing power,
- Productivity-enhancing digital and AI infrastructure,
- And assets that do not rely on excessive leverage (debt) are likely to attract attention.
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Today's report highlights the fact that "the AI rally is casting a shadow over the uncomfortable truth of wholesale price shocks and rising interest rates."
Rather than being reassured by the index's brilliance, I hope you will spend today reflecting on how prices, interest rates, and oil prices will affect your assets and life in the long term.
This content is written for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice for any particular security or asset.
Source: https://nextinvest.org/ko
