It feels a bit like pouring cold water on the mood ahead of the 60-day negotiation agreement, but I brought it because there's an interesting view. Just take a look and see that you can see it like this.
The key points are as follows:
1. Due to the chaos in SoH (Strait of Hormuz), demand for trade finance related to oil purchases has collapsed.
2. As a result, dollars that were tied up are flowing into risky assets.
3. The time lag and market response will be delayed by 30~60 days.
4. This coincides with the timing of the rally in April, about a month after the start of the war.
5. Conversely, if 1) demand suppression occurs as the real economy begins to feel the shortage of oil or 2) SoH resumes and oil trade becomes active again, dollars will flow back into trade finance and payment flows (again with a time lag of 30~60 days), causing dollars to outflow from risky assets.
* The key point is that it seems like we should start preparing for adjustments. It seems reasonable enough. If this perspective is correct, I think we won't start making serious adjustments until around the end of the World Cup.
