The 10-year Treasury yield is on track to hit 4.9%.
Although the Fed announced it would start buybacks today, the scale was smaller than market expectations, ultimately driving up interest rates.
Bassett had been boasting confidently, but when he finally opened the lid, he only said he'd spent $6 billion. The market responded with "At least $10 billion needs to be spent."
After a lukewarm market reaction, Bassett hastily declared that he would "expand" the buybacks, but the market didn't seem to react much.
Meanwhile, Trump continues to post delusional messages like "The war will end after the November midterm elections ㅋ Oil prices will fall ㅋ," seemingly out of touch with reality. It's unclear whether he's expressing his own hopes or simply saying things that his supporters want to hear.
Amidst these headwinds, the US stock market saw semiconductors rise steadily,
leaving the Korean market feeling like it had been hit directly. While today's futures and options expiration may play a role, foreign investors are selling both futures and spot contracts.
Institutions have announced a rebalancing of Samsung/Hynix semiconductor weights today. It is rumored that Samsung will increase its weight while Hynix will decrease slightly. However, looking at gold futures, selling continues, and institutions are absorbing all the futures contracts being dumped by foreign investors.
While it wouldn't be unusual for foreign investors to switch positions and start buying if the overall mood were to improve somewhat, with all indicators pointing downwards, it's unclear whether the rise in semiconductors is due to favorable price-to-fundamentals ratios or excessive market optimism. It's difficult to determine a clear direction.
With rising oil prices and high Treasury bond yields, the VIX should be around 30, but it remains below 20. The market is strangely calm and optimistic.
In this environment, there's sometimes a strange pattern where the market drops somewhat before suddenly switching to buying in the afternoon and pulling prices up. I've experienced something similar before, and it was confusing.
In such situations, if you are already making a profit, it seems right to "cut your profits" (sell).
Yesterday felt like the US market was having its last big party before a storm. The current mood in the Korean market feels like a major storm is brewing...
The CPI announcement on Friday at 9:30 am will likely determine the short-term direction of the market. It seems prudent to observe the market somewhat cautiously for a while depending on the CPI results.
