지난 주 수요일 하이닉스가 나스닥 ADR 상장 공시를 냈습니다. 그 다음날 주가는 300만원 가까이 상승했습니다.
시장의 분위기는 7월 10일 상장 개시일 전까지,
1) 2분기 삼성전자 서프라이즈 실적발표(잠정치) 기대심리
2) ADR 공모가(잠정) 255만원/10 = 255,000원 = 하방지지선
3) 상장 후 마이크론과 키맞추기 시작하면 고질적인 저평가가 어느 정도 해소될 것으로 기대. 이를 선반영해서 상장일까지 우상향 예상
이였습니다.
그런데 오늘까지 주가는 고점 대비 약 25% 넘게 하락하였습니다.
그 원인이 무엇일까 ADR관련해서 찾아보다보니, ADR 일정이 짜여있는 이 상황 자체는 우리같은 개인투자자들에게는 호재가 아닙니다. 가장 큰 이유는 이 공모에 참여하는 해외기관투자자들 때문입니다.
이들은,
1) 공모 후 ADR 가격이 상승/하락 어느 쪽이든 확정된 수익을 보호하고 손실 리스크를 제로로 만들어야 합니다.
2) 수요예측에 참가한 기관투자자들은 결정된 공모가에서 3~5% 할인가로 배정받습니다(확정수익).
3) 본주의 주가를 최대한 떨어뜨릴수록 이득입니다(동일 예산으로 더 많은 주식수 확보 = 숏친 물량 상환 + 알파수량)
즉, 상장 후 공모가에서 상승해서 숏 마진이 줄거나 급등으로 손실액이 커진다 해도 ADR 배정물량으로 이를 메울 수 있습니다.
뭐 저도 100% 이해는 안 되는데 델타헤징 전문가들한테는 당연한 소리처럼 들릴 겁니다.
대다수 일반인들에게는 먼나라 소리이고요.
아무튼, 어제 메타발 노이즈는 이들에게 좋은 구실거리가 됐습니다.
+삼전닉스의 향후 대규모 투자소식도 이들에게는 써먹기 좋은 악재입니다.
그러면 상장일까지 우리는 죽으라는 얘기냐...면, 그거는 아닐겁니다.
1) 실적을 이기는 악재는 없습니다.
2) ADR이 상승해도 본주가 같이 안 오를 걱정은 할 필요가 없습니다. 차이가 커진다면 시장은 차익거래를 기계적으로 수행할 것이기 때문입니다.
3) 오늘같은 폭락으로 숏 마진이 충분히 커졌기 때문에 상장일 전이라도 대규모 커버링 물량이 들어올 확률이 높고 국내 기관만 헛짓거리 안 한다면 급등으로 반전할 가능성이 높습니다.
개인적인 바램이라면 7월7일로 예정된 삼성전자 잠정실적발표가 하루만 빨리 진행되면 좋겠습니다(+성과급 충당금은 다음 분기 이후로 넘기면 좋겠음).
Minggu lalu Rabu, Hynix mengumumkan penawaran umum saham di Nasdaq ADR. Keesokan harinya, harga saham naik hampir 3 juta won.
Suasana pasar sebelum tanggal listing awal, 10 Juli, adalah,
1) Ekspektasi kinerja mengejutkan kuartal ke-2 Samsung Electronics (nilai sementara)
2) Harga penawaran umum ADR (sementara) 2.55 juta won/10 = 255.000 won = garis dukungan bawah
3) Jika Micron dan Hynix mulai selaras setelah listing, diharapkan undervaluation kronis akan teratasi sebagian. Ini diantisipasi sebelumnya, sehingga harga diperkirakan akan naik sebelum tanggal listing.
Itulah yang terjadi.
Namun, hingga hari ini, harga saham telah turun lebih dari 25% dari titik tertinggi.
Apa penyebabnya? Setelah mencari informasi terkait ADR, situasi di mana jadwal ADR sudah ditetapkan sebenarnya tidak menguntungkan bagi investor individu seperti kita. Alasan utamanya adalah investor institusi asing yang berpartisipasi dalam penawaran umum ini.
Mereka,
1) Harus melindungi keuntungan yang dipastikan dan menghilangkan risiko kerugian terlepas dari apakah harga ADR naik atau turun setelah penawaran umum.
2) Investor institusi yang berpartisipasi dalam perkiraan permintaan menerima alokasi dengan diskon 3-5% dari harga penawaran umum yang ditentukan (keuntungan pasti).
3) Semakin turun harga saham utama, semakin menguntungkan (dengan anggaran yang sama, mereka dapat memperoleh lebih banyak saham = pengembalian posisi short + alpha).
Dengan kata lain, bahkan jika margin short berkurang atau kerugian meningkat karena kenaikan harga setelah listing, mereka dapat menutupinya dengan jumlah saham ADR yang dialokasikan.
Saya tidak sepenuhnya mengerti, tetapi bagi para ahli hedging delta, ini mungkin terdengar seperti hal yang wajar.
Bagi kebanyakan orang awam, ini adalah bahasa asing.
Bagaimanapun, kebisingan Metaverse kemarin memberikan alasan yang bagus bagi mereka.
+ Berita investasi besar-besaran Samsung Electronics di masa mendatang juga merupakan faktor negatif yang dapat dimanfaatkan oleh mereka.
Jadi, apakah ini berarti kita akan mati sebelum tanggal listing? ...Tentu saja tidak.
1) Tidak ada faktor negatif yang mengalahkan kinerja.
2) Anda tidak perlu khawatir jika harga ADR naik tetapi harga saham utama tidak ikut naik. Jika selisihnya melebar, pasar akan secara mekanis melakukan arbitrage.
3) Karena penurunan tajam hari ini, margin short sudah cukup besar, jadi kemungkinan besar akan ada aliran penutup posisi yang besar sebelum tanggal listing, dan jika institusi domestik tidak hanya diam saja, ada kemungkinan besar harga akan melonjak balik.
Harapan pribadi saya adalah bahwa pengumuman kinerja sementara Samsung Electronics yang dijadwalkan pada 7 Juli dapat dilakukan lebih cepat (+ bonus kinerja dapat ditunda ke kuartal berikutnya).
Last Wednesday, Hynix announced the Nasdaq ADR listing. The next day, the stock price rose by almost 3 million won.
The market sentiment was until July 10th, the listing start date,
1) Expectation of Samsung Electronics' surprise earnings announcement (tentative)
2) ADR offering price (tentative) 2.55 million won/10 = 255,000 won = lower support line
3) If Micron starts matching after the listing, it is expected that chronic undervaluation will be resolved to some extent. This is expected to be reflected in advance, and an upward trend is expected until the listing date.
It was.
However, as of today, the stock price has fallen by more than 25% from its high.
What is the reason? I looked into ADR related matters, and the fact that the ADR schedule is set up is not good news for individual investors like us. The biggest reason is the overseas institutional investors who participate in this offering.
They,
1) Need to protect confirmed profits and eliminate downside risk regardless of whether the ADR price rises or falls after the offering.
2) Institutional investors who participated in demand forecasting are allocated at a 3~5% discount from the determined offering price (confirmed profit).
3) The lower the main stock price, the more profitable it is (securing more shares with the same budget = short covering + alpha quantity)
In other words, even if the margin for shorts decreases or losses increase due to a surge after the listing, they can offset this with the ADR allocation.
I don't understand it 100%, but I guess it sounds natural to delta hedging experts.
It's a foreign language to most ordinary people.
Anyway, yesterday's Metaball noise gave them a good excuse.
+ News of Samsung Nix's large-scale investment in the future is also bad news for them.
So, are we saying that we will die until the listing date... No, that's not it.
1) There is no adversity that overcomes performance.
2) Even if ADR rises, there is no need to worry that the main stock price will not rise together. If the difference widens, the market will mechanically perform arbitrage.
3) With today's plunge, short margins have become sufficiently large, so there is a high probability that a large-scale covering volume will come in before the listing date, and if domestic institutions don't just do nothing, there is a high possibility of a sharp rebound.
Personally, I hope that Samsung Electronics' tentative earnings announcement scheduled for July 7th will be advanced by just one day (+ it would be nice to carry over the bonus payment to the next quarter).
