This paragraph below is a translation of an X (formerly Twitter) post using Gemini 3.5 Flash.
The memory supply gap will continue to widen until 2027. This is the real reason why Apple is lobbying the White House to remove CXMT from the Entity List.
Let me start with recent industry research results: The pressure Apple is facing has shifted from soaring memory costs to an increasingly widening supply gap.
1. It is estimated that about 15~20% of the memory production capacity allocated for consumer electronics in 2026 will be converted to data centers by 2027, and this proportion could increase further.
2. Due to tight LPDDR memory supply, Apple's actual A20 chip procurement volume from the second half of 2026 to the first quarter of 2027 may be 10~20% lower than the original target (although some of this may reflect Apple's own overbooking).
CXMT states in its IPO prospectus that its production capacity falls far short of domestic demand in China. Considering the ongoing global memory imbalance, even if Apple's lobbying succeeds and it can purchase DRAM from CXMT, it is unlikely to significantly reduce costs or bridge the supply gap. Nevertheless, it is perfectly understandable why Apple is seeking additional suppliers in this increasingly imbalanced situation.
This explains well why Apple is moving more aggressively this time than when it considered YMTC in 2022. While YMTC was primarily aimed at reducing NAND costs, CXMT is about managing DRAM supply risks.
Tim Cook is one of the few tech leaders who can still effectively navigate both Washington and Beijing. Therefore, it would be better for him to resolve this issue before he steps down as CEO. Even if these efforts prove fruitless, Apple can create the impression in the market that "Apple tried but was blocked by US policy." This could help ease dissatisfaction with price increases and shipping delays.
https://x.com/mingchikuo/status/2071286087759393104
