This is my first post ㅠㅠ;;
I don't usually post... but today I talked with some people I know and showed them a chart, so I brought it here.
It would be good if those still in the market could refer to this.
I was going to write at length, but with presbyopia and frozen shoulder (ㅠㅠ;;) it's difficult so I'm giving up and
I'll organize it simply with 2 pictures.
The chart I'll show you below is about the relative performance and chart of 2 indices.
It's a weekly chart for a 10-year period.
In the 2 charts... the front item is changed and inserted, the back item is the Nasdaq index.
If it's a downward trend, it means the back item, Nasdaq, has better relative performance
If it's an upward trend, it means the front item has better relative performance.
Then first, it's a comparison of the Emerging Market index and Nasdaq.
The front item is iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF,
The back item is Nasdaq
The period when the moving average was coming down meant Nasdaq had better relative performance
As you can see, it's been serious from mid-2019 to 2025, roughly 6 years... it's enormous.
The problem is that it's trying to turn from early last year.
Yes... after Trump's election was confirmed.
Dollar weakness -> Emerging Market go go... the movement has started.
It's a rally trend with higher lows on the right. In professional slang, it's sometimes called a 'double-bottom'.
There's a chart where double-bottom is more clearly visible (you can see it better when looking at relative performance with Vanguard all world ex-US etf)
I'll skip it since I'm only uploading 2 ㅎ
Then we should compare it with our market, right?
The front item is probably something many of you have heard of
EWY... iShares MSCI Korea ETF.
Yes... this has clearly broken through the long-term moving average resistance line.
It's a strong signal that the trend will change to upward from now on.
I won't explain further and will wrap up.
Additionally... if the dollar continues to weaken (was it yesterday? Anyway, it was a 52-week low?) additional losses due to exchange rates will occur.
(Not a recommendation, but just for reference)
In trend-following trading, when you see a new high? Buy! (I don't recommend it because not just any new high should be bought indiscriminately)
Conversely, when you see a new low, you should either go short or not even look at it.
Remember the fact that the dollar was at a 52-week low.
Um... how do I wrap this up?
Have a peaceful evening and good luck with your investments~
