2/26 Asset Markets - Bitcoin Silver Strong Rebound
# February 26, 2026 Macroeconomic Daily Market Report
## 1. Today's Market at a Glance
- US 10-Year Treasury Yield: 4.04% (1-day +0.25%) – Declined sharply over the past month (-4.7%), maintaining a 3-month low with a slight rebound today.
- Real 10-Year Yield (TIPS): 1.78% (1-day +0.56%) – Down nearly 7% over 30 days, showing gradually easing financial conditions on a real basis.
- Yield Curve (10Y–2Y): 0.60% – Spread slightly narrowed over the day, but widened significantly over 90 days, moving from inversion toward gradual normalization.
- Dollar Index (DXY): 97.86 (1-day -0.06%) – Essentially flat, with limited directional clarity.
- Bitcoin: $68,013 (1-day +6.14%) – Strong technical rebound after 3 consecutive down days, with volatility expansion ahead of options expiration.
- S&P 500 ETF (SPY): 692.47 (1-day +0.74%) – Nearly flat over 30 days but maintaining a gradual uptrend over 90 days.
- Nasdaq 100 (QQQ): 615.81 (1-day +1.31%) – Limited gains despite Nvidia's strong results yesterday, amid technology stock volatility.
- Long-Term Treasuries (TLT): 89.94 (1-day +0.04%) – Up over 2% in the past month, with long-term rate declines largely reflected.
- Gold (GLD): 477.14 (1-day +0.53%), Silver (SLV): 82.29 (1-day +4.06%) – Silver surged over 70% in the past 90 days.
- Oil (USO): 79.65 (1-day -1.37%) – Adjusting some recent 30-day gains amid rising US crude inventories.
- Global Equities: Europe (VGK), Japan (EWJ), and Emerging Markets (VWO) all up on a 1-day basis, with broad strength over 90 days.
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## 2. Theme 1 – Long-Term Rates Near 3-Month Lows, 'Safe Asset Preference + Growth Expectations' Mixed with Tech Adjustments
Over the past month, US 10-year Treasury yields have fallen to early 4% levels, reaching 3-month lows. Today saw only a slight rebound of about 0.25 percentage points, with real rates showing similar movement.(marketwatch.com)
This backdrop combines the following factors:
- AI-related growth expectations + soft landing hopes
- Recent employment indicators like ADP have come in stronger than expected, reducing recession concerns while lessening the need to rush rate cuts.(markets.financialcontent.com)
- Simultaneously, the AI investment boom continues to increase long-term growth expectations, increasing demand for long-duration bonds and pressuring yields.(marketwatch.com)
- Simultaneous occurrence of technology stock volatility and safe asset demand
- Nvidia's earnings announced after market close yesterday significantly exceeded revenue and guidance, reinforcing the AI theme, but today during trading profit-taking pressured the stock sharply.(riotimesonline.com)
- Nasdaq volatility increased, and as a result, some capital flowed toward US Treasuries and safe assets like gold and silver.(bloomberg.com)
In summary:
- The downtrend in long-term rates over the past 30 days continued through today, and the yield curve is steepening versus 90 days ago, with recession signals moderating.
- Alongside technology stock adjustments, safe asset preference appears, while simultaneously AI-driven growth expectations are maintained, reflecting expectations for a 'good growth + gradual rates' combination.
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## 3. Theme 2 – Bitcoin and Ethereum Strong Daily Rebound, Volatility Expansion Ahead of Options Expiration
Today's cryptocurrency market's biggest characteristic is a strong rebound with typical 'short covering + options expiration' dynamics.
- Price movements
- Bitcoin: $68,013 (1-day +6.14%, 7-day +2.36%)
- Ethereum: $2,058 (1-day +11.09%, 7-day +5.23%)
- However, on 30-day and 90-day bases they are down approximately -23% to -30%, making it important to note that while today's rebound is strong, it remains a recovery within an adjustment phase.
- Direct catalysts for today's rebound
- Following Nvidia's announcement of 'AI mega results' yesterday, expectations for the technology sector broadly recovered, improving risk appetite sentiment.(riotimesonline.com)
- Bitcoin recovered the $68,000 level with 3-5% gains this morning, with trading volumes up 20-30% from the previous day.(livemint.com)
- Options expiration and derivatives positioning
- Ahead of the scheduled $10.5 billion in bitcoin options expiration on February 27 (Friday), short covering and delta hedge adjustments appear to have pushed prices higher.(newsbytesapp.com)
- News of spot and ETF outflows over the past 5 weeks switching to net inflows as of late February also contributed to sentiment improvement.(newsbytesapp.com)
Implications for investors
- Given that 30 and 90-day returns remain in the -20% range, today's sharp rally is more characteristic of a 'oversold technical rebound' rather than a trend reversal.
- In a period where long-term rate declines and technology stock reassessments are occurring simultaneously, bitcoin is again drawing attention as a hybrid asset of 'high-risk growth + digital gold,' but attention must be paid to the possibility of volatility expansion after options expiration.
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## 4. Theme 3 – Gold, Silver, Oil: Inflation Hedges and Economic/Supply Factors Diverge in Performance
### 4-1. Gold and Silver: Safe Assets + Inflation Hedging Regains Focus
- Gold (GLD): 1-day +0.53%, 90-day +24.5%
- Silver (SLV): 1-day +4.06%, 7-day +17.4%, 90-day +70.0%
Over the past three months, silver prices have significantly outperformed gold.(fortune.com)
Background to today's strength:
- Long-term and real rate declines have created a favorable environment for gold and silver by reducing rate burdens.
- Alongside soft landing expectations, silver with high industrial demand shows higher beta (sensitivity) than gold.
- Some investors are increasing portfolio hedge allocations in response to the steep 90-day rally, amid concerns about potential inflation re-acceleration and geopolitical risks.
### 4-2. Oil (USO): 1% Adjustment on Heavy Inventory News
- USO: 79.65, 1-day -1.37%, 30-day +8.40%, 90-day +13.72%
The US Energy Information Administration's weekly statistics showed a sharp 16 million barrel increase in crude inventories, the largest increase this year, causing oil to adjust over the day.(riotimesonline.com)
However, the 30 and 90-day performance shows it continues to maintain a gradual uptrend, with Iran and Middle East-related geopolitical risks providing downside support.
Summary:
- Gold and silver continue their strength from a combination of rate declines, safe asset preference, and industrial demand.
- Oil took a near-term adjustment from inventory shock, but the picture is one where structural supply risks and soft landing expectations maintain upside in the medium term.
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## 5. Theme 4 – US, European, and Japanese Equities: Broad Global Risk Assets Remain Resilient Despite Tech-AI Volatility
### 5-1. United States: Large-Cap Tech Shaken, but Indices Resilient
- SPY: 1-day +0.74%, 7-day +0.90%, 30-day -0.04%, 90-day +2.18%
- QQQ: 1-day +1.31%, 7-day +1.65%, 30-day -1.54%, 90-day +0.38%
- DIA: 1-day +0.56%, 7-day -0.37%, 30-day +0.22%, 90-day +4.65%
Yesterday's Nvidia results confirmed that the AI boom continues to translate into earnings and cash flows, but today during trading, profit-taking and valuation concerns shook technology stocks sharply.(riotimesonline.com)
Nevertheless:
- The S&P 500 and Dow continue slight gains, suggesting the market is absorbing AI volatility.
- The Dow (DIA) with its higher weighting of value stocks, defensive stocks, and traditional industries shows the strongest 90-day performance, hinting at some rotation from growth to value stocks.
### 5-2. Europe, Japan, and Emerging Markets: Broad-Based Strength
- Europe (VGK): 90-day +12.8%
- Japan (EWJ): 90-day +15.2%
- Emerging Markets (VWO): 90-day +11.2%
On a single day basis, all three indices recorded gains of 0.5-1.4%, with global risk assets continuing their rally in an environment of somewhat easing dollar strength.
In Europe, with inflation falling below the 2% target, expectations that the ECB will focus more on supporting growth are acting favorably on the stock market.(riotimesonline.com)
Japan continues to see inflows of foreign capital as yen weakness, moderate inflation, and improving corporate governance expectations converge.
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## 6. Investor Checkpoints
1. Rate Levels and Momentum
- The 10-year rate is near 3-month lows, but continued small rebounds like today could put the bond price rally in a consolidation phase.
- With the yield curve gradually normalizing, recession signals weakening is creating a favorable environment for equities.
2. AI and Technology Stock Volatility Management
- While AI flagship stocks like Nvidia show solid results, valuation concerns are increasing near-term volatility.
- Investors with high technology exposure could consider diversifying with indices (e.g., SPY) or value stock ETFs (e.g., DIA).
3. Cryptocurrencies: Near-term Options Events vs. Medium-term Cycles
- Near-term event-driven volatility could be significant ahead of tomorrow's (February 27) major options expiration.
- Following a -20% adjustment over 1-3 months, today is the first strong rebound, making volatility risk management essential for both buyers and sellers.
4. Commodities and Precious Metals Portfolio Role
- Gold and silver serve as instruments to hedge and bet on growth (industrial demand), and could be considered for some allocation in portfolios heavy in equities and bonds.
- Oil's medium-term upside remains open even after inventory shock, warranting attention as a hedge against inflation re-acceleration risks.
> Disclaimer: This report is for informational purposes and is not a recommendation to buy or sell specific assets. Investors bear full responsibility for investment decisions and their outcomes.
This content is written for informational purposes only and does not recommend investment in any specific security or asset.
Source: https://nextinvest.org/ko
