When I think about the last Q1 earnings announcement
I already knew it would come out well, but because there was no excitement, it fell.
Micron stock rose quite a bit the day before the earnings announcement, but fell after the announcement.
Along with that, SK Hynix and Samsung also fell together.
If my plan had gone through, I should have taken profits today with 30% remaining.
I was planning to sell 20% on Monday, 20% on Tuesday, and finally 30% today,
I sold 20% on Monday, but I couldn't predict the institutional rebalancing on Tuesday and still hold it.
I heard that foreign institutions raised their short positions in Micron. It seems they also raised short positions to reduce risk because they couldn't predict the results.
I'm really waiting for tomorrow at 5 AM to see if this will fall due to lack of excitement or rise instead.
Speaking of semiconductor prices...
Compared to 3 months ago, DDR5 16GB prices have risen about 24.5%.
This means that when announcing Q2 earnings this time, the increased prices can be reflected in the announcement,
Because existing forecasts already reflect the risen prices when released, I have many doubts about whether this earnings can be exciting.
Before Micron has time to catch its breath after the earnings announcement, Samsung will announce on July 7th. This week and next week will likely be a very confusing market.
As a side note, TLC (flash memory) prices have fallen 10% compared to 3 months ago. The downward trend continues now. Last March was the peak, and June prices equal January 2026 prices.
I once saw a report saying that Kioxia is in a significantly overvalued range and NAND flash will be the first to have excess inventory. (Though looking at NVMe 1TB prices, I don't really agree with the report.)
In the case of Kioxia or SanDisk, it seems we need to be a bit careful. I only hold foreign stocks through ETFs so I don't pay much attention to the weight, but you should watch NAND flash prices carefully for some time.
