3/25 US Stock Market - ARM Surges, Energy and Raw Materials Rise Together
March 25, 2026 Market Analysis
## Today's Market at a Glance
Today (March 25, US Eastern Time), the US stock market closed with all three major indices rising. While Middle East tensions and interest rate uncertainty continue to make headlines, investors have shifted from "sell everything" to "let's pick what to hold." (reddit.com)
- S&P 500: +0.54%
- Dow: +0.66%
- Nasdaq: +0.77% (reddit.com)
In simple terms, the market has shifted slightly from complete risk avoidance mode to a mode of reinvesting in stocks and sectors that look promising.
Three major trends converged in the background.
1. AI and Semiconductor Expectations Reignited – Tech stocks showed strong performance alongside ARM's major announcement.
2. Energy and Raw Materials Demand Expectations – Energy and basic materials continue to show steady strength amid Middle East risks and supply variables.
3. "Bargain Hunting" After Recent Corrections – Among sectors that lagged over the past 10 and 30 days, buying pressure entered areas with clear fundamentals.
## Sector Performance: 9 Out of 11 Rise
Today, 9 out of 11 sectors rose, with only 2 declining.
- Leaders: Basic Materials (+1.91%), Healthcare (+0.85%), Consumer Discretionary (+0.63%), Technology (+0.60%)
- Slight Weakness: Real Estate including REITs (-0.07%), Financials (-0.10%)
### 1) Technology: AI and Semiconductor Expectations Shot Up by ARM
Today technology stocks rose +0.60%, with ARM's sharp gains (+16%) at the center. (reddit.com)
- Arm Holdings (ARM): +16.38%
→ ARM had been a "design company" that only designed chips and received licensing and royalty fees, but today announced it would make and sell its own chips directly for the first time. Investor expectations exploded when the company forecast this new business could generate approximately $15 billion in annual revenue. (reddit.com)
→ To use an analogy, a company that had only operated as a franchise headquarters (chip design) is now opening its own stores (chip production and sales) to significantly increase revenue sources.
- Related semiconductor and server companies like AMD (+7.59%), Intel (+7.08%), and Super Micro (+7%) also showed strong gains.
→ The expectation that demand for components and chips going into AI servers could increase has spread like a "ripple effect."
- HPE (+7.87%) also surged on expectations related to data centers and servers.
> So why does this matter?
> As AI infrastructure investment continues to grow, earnings, employment, and capital investment of related companies expand together. This signals that there is significant room for profit growth among US companies despite concerns about economic slowdown.
However, 10-day (+−1.28%) and 30-day (−3.31%) performance is still weak, so we need to observe a few more days to confirm whether today's rebound marks the beginning of a genuine trend reversal or just a short-term technical bounce.
### 2) Basic Materials and Energy: Where Real Economy Meets Geopolitics
The Basic Materials (raw materials-related) sector was today's top gainer at +1.91%.
- Dow (+3.50%), Mosaic (+3.93%), and IFF (+4.14%) showed strength.
→ This is because when real economic activities like construction, industrial production, and agriculture revive, demand grows first in these areas.
The Energy sector also continued its strong trend at +0.31%.
- Energy and energy service companies like EQT (+3.98%) and SLB (+3.02%) rose.
- Energy ranks first in returns over 10-day (+7.59%), 30-day (+17.82%), and 120-day (+38.01%) periods, continuing an "energy bull market" across short, medium, and long-term timeframes.
> One-line Summary
> Energy and raw materials are like a "thermometer reflecting global economy and geopolitics." Recent months of strength can be seen as a result of mixed factors: supply anxiety (Middle East, weather, etc.) + expectations for economic soft landing + concerns about inflation re-stimulation.
What's important from individual investors' perspective is that when oil and commodity prices rise, living costs and prices can come under pressure. In other words, even if your stock portfolio profits improve, oil prices and food costs could rise simultaneously in this environment.
### 3) Healthcare and Consumer Discretionary: The Middle Ground of Defense and Growth
Healthcare (+0.85%) and Consumer Discretionary (+0.63%) also supported market gains.
- Healthcare is a sector that combines defensive characteristics (people need treatment even in downturns) with expectations for new drugs and biotech advances.
→ Today, biotech stocks like Alnylam (+6.70%), Insmed (+6.59%), and Moderna (+4.29%) surged, lifting the sector.
- In Consumer Discretionary, PDD (+4.32%) and Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH +2.85%) rose.
→ This signals that online consumption and travel/leisure demand are more resilient than expected.
> So why does this matter?
> The joint strength of Healthcare and Consumer Discretionary signals "a phase where rankings differentiate among stocks and sectors within moderate growth, rather than directly worrying about recession."
### 4) Financials and Real Estate: "Weak Zone" Sensitive to Interest Rates
Financials (-0.10%) and Real Estate (-0.07%) declined slightly.
- Financial stocks are sensitive to short and long-term interest rates, loan demand, and credit risk.
→ As uncertainty increases about the interest rate path (when and how much the Fed will cut rates), investor sentiment toward banks, insurers, and asset managers has become more cautious.
- Real Estate (including REITs) is the sector that most directly experiences "damage when rates rise, benefits when rates fall."
→ Although the overall market rose today, doubts about the future pace of rate cuts prevented strong buying pressure.
> What's the impact on my wallet?
> As interest rate uncertainty persists, loan rates (mortgage, student loans, credit cards) and savings and bond rates could fluctuate more. If you're planning to buy or refinance a home, this is a period where you should carefully monitor interest rate forecasts for the next 6-12 months.
## Short-term vs. Medium-to-Long-term Trends: Today Was "Catching Breath" Rebound
While today was a pretty good day with 9 sectors rising, the 10-day and 30-day performance tells a very different story.
- 10-day basis: Only 2 out of 11 sectors positive (Energy, Basic Materials)
- 30-day basis: Again, only 2 positive (Energy, Utilities)
In other words, the past month was generally a correction period, with only Energy and Basic Materials continuing their strength alone.
- Technology is up +2.64% on a 120-day basis but has been negative over recent 10 and 30 days.
→ Today's ARM and semiconductor rally is a mix of "rebounds after recent corrections + reconfirmation of AI expectations."
- Consumer, Healthcare, and Industrials show similar patterns of partial recovery after short-term corrections.
> Summing up from an investment perspective in one line,
> "Within an overall correction period, Energy and Raw Materials are already in long-term strength, while Technology and Growth stocks show signs of potential revival starting today."
## How to Interpret Today's Movements?
1. AI and Semiconductors: The Story Remains Powerful
ARM's new business announcement and stock surge send a strong signal that AI infrastructure investment is far from over. However, with stock prices already rising significantly, volatility (sharp price swings) could increase in this period.
2. Energy and Raw Materials: The Intersection of Inflation and Growth
The long-term strength of these sectors stems from intertwined risks of price increases and expectations for global demand recovery.
→ From an investor's perspective, this suggests it remains meaningful to maintain some inflation hedges in your portfolio.
3. Financials and Real Estate: A Cautious Period Until the Interest Rate Direction Becomes Clear
Until the interest rate path becomes clear, the market's approach to economically sensitive sectors and highly leveraged sectors is likely to remain conservative.
4. What It Means for Individual Investors
- Short-term surging stocks (especially AI and semiconductors) are both opportunities and risks.
- If you have no exposure to Energy and Raw Materials, this is a good time to review your inflation and growth scenarios.
- If you hold significant real estate and financial assets (home, REITs, financial stocks), this is a period to pay closer attention to interest rate and policy news.
Finally, today's rally is not a signal that "everything is fine." Rather, it was a day that demonstrated money continues to flow into companies and sectors with good stories and performance.
This content is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or recommendations for specific stocks or assets.
Source: https://nextinvest.org/ko
