4/11 Weekly Summary - Risk Assets Rally as War Fears Ease

April 10, 2026 Macroeconomic Weekly Market Report

## This Week's Core Theme: "Risk Assets Rally as War Fears Ease"

This week's global market keyword was the US-Iran ceasefire and the sharp drop in oil prices. As the United States and Iran entered negotiations for a two-week ceasefire and partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the worst-case scenario of "full-scale war → soaring oil prices → global economic recession" took a step back. As a result:

- US stock ETFs (SPY +3.55%, QQQ +4.46%) and emerging markets (VWO +5.44%), Europe (VGK +4.61%), and others rose broadly together,

- Bitcoin (+9.38%) and Ethereum (+9.77%), which had been under significant correction pressure for some time, also rebounded strongly,

- Conversely, oil prices (USO -9.72%) and gold prices (GLD 7D +1.67% but 30D -8.32%), which had been carrying a "war premium," showed signs of stabilization. (lpl.com)

However, the 10-year Treasury yield remains up +4.13% over one month and +2.39% over three months, so this week's relief rally is more realistically viewed as a breathing spell from eased tensions rather than a "complete happy ending."

---

## Interest Rates and Bonds: First Breath After Sharp Rise

- 10-Year Treasury Yield: 4.29% (7D -0.92%, 30D +4.13%, 90D +2.39%)

- Explanation: The 10-year Treasury yield is a number that compresses "inflation and economic growth outlook for the next 10 years." When rates rise, bond prices fall; when rates fall, bond prices rise.

- This week, thanks to the sharp drop in oil prices and ceasefire expectations, fears of "inflation surging further" subsided, causing yields to decline slightly (7D -0.92%). (ts2.tech)

- However, looking at one month (+4.13%) and three months (+2.39%), they remain elevated, so in the big picture, it's closer to "market rates rose significantly and took a brief rest."

- 10-Year Real Yield (TIPS Real Yield: 1.96%, 7D -2.97%, 30D +10.11%)

- Explanation: Real yield is "the true interest rate accounting for inflation." If a deposit rate is 5% but inflation rises 3%, you can think of the real yield as around 2%.

- After surging +10.11% over the past month, this week saw some pullback of -2.97%.

- This means that while the perception that "bond returns are decent even accounting for inflation" has strengthened, this week's slight moderation is just a minor relief, and the big trend is still closer to rising real yields (=monetary policy is less accommodative than expected).

- Yield Curve (10Y-2Y Spread: 0.51%, 7D -1.92%, 30D -12.07%)

- Explanation: The yield curve spread is the "difference between 10-year Treasury yield minus 2-year Treasury yield." When long-term rates become much lower than short-term rates, historically that has frequently appeared as a precursor to recession.

- Currently, the spread is at +0.51%, in a slightly upward (normalization) zone, but looking at one-month and three-month changes, it has actually contracted (-12.07%, -20.31%).

- In simple terms, rather than "recession risk has completely disappeared," the Treasury market can be interpreted as remaining cautious.

- Federal Reserve Comments:

- Early this week, Cleveland Federal Reserve President Beth Hammack mentioned "if inflation remains persistently high, we may need to raise rates further," putting the brakes on market expectations for significant rate cuts within the year. (apnews.com)

- However, with ceasefire news and sharp oil price declines coinciding, this week's rates reflected a hawkish (tightening) commentary and "inflation relief expectations" canceling each other out, resulting in a modest decline.

So why does this matter?

Most long-term loan rates—mortgages, corporate bonds, student loans—are affected by 10-year Treasury yields and real yields. This week, the surge subsided and took a breath, but accumulated over one and three months, they remain at elevated levels. This signals that a "complete easing phase" with significantly lower loan rates may not yet be at hand.

---

## Dollar and Foreign Exchange: Partial War Premium Resolution, DXY Adjusts

- Dollar Index (DXY: 98.95, 7D -0.96%, 30D +0.35%, 90D -0.16%)

- Explanation: The Dollar Index (DXY) is a composite score comparing the dollar against a basket of major currencies including the euro, yen, and pound. When the number rises, it's closer to "dollar strength"; when it falls, it's closer to "dollar weakness."

- This week, the dollar declined about 1% (7D -0.96%). With reduced concerns about a full-scale US-Iran conflict, demand for safe assets in the style of "grab dollar cash and flee" has partially withdrawn. (lpl.com)

- However, over 30 days it remains in slight strength (+0.35%), and over 90 days it's nearly flat (-0.16%), so this week's movement is roughly a partial unwind of the war premium.

So why does this matter?

When the dollar weakens, it becomes less burdensome to invest in foreign assets (emerging market stocks, EM bonds, etc.), and overseas travel and education costs may relatively decline. Looking at this week's DXY decline alongside the strong performance of emerging market ETF (VWO +5.44%), it was a week where the classic pattern of "dollar weakness → capital flows to emerging markets" resumed operation. (lpl.com)

---

## Stock Market: Global Synchronized Rally on Ceasefire + Sharp Oil Drop

### US Stocks: "Risk Asset Return" Led by Tech and Large Cap

- S&P 500 ETF (SPY): 679.10, 7D +3.55%, 30D +0.68%, 90D -1.89%

- Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ): 611.07, 7D +4.46%, 30D +0.68%, 90D -2.36%

- Dow ETF (DIA): 479.25, 7D +3.05%, 30D +1.15%, 90D -2.82%

This week, US stocks recorded strong gains in the 3-4% range, boosted by "easing war fears + sharp oil drop." (watrust.com)

- War-related news:

- Reports emerged that the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire and tension easing,

- The stock market, which had priced in full-scale war risk in advance, bounced significantly amid relief that "the worst-case scenario was avoided." (lpl.com)

- Effect of oil price collapse:

- International oil prices, which had surged on concerns of Strait of Hormuz blockade, plummeted more than 15% with ceasefire news, significantly alleviating inflation concerns. (ts2.tech)

- It's worth keeping in mind that if oil price adjustments continue, the market's view on inflation trajectory after year-end could tilt toward a more accommodative direction. (dol.gov)

3. Additional Comments from Fed Officials

- A key question is whether remarks like Hammack's this week—suggesting "rate increases are possible if necessary"—will repeat, or whether the tone will settle into "extended hold at current levels."

- The market is currently beginning to place slightly more weight on the "higher for longer" scenario over significant rate cuts.

4. Bitcoin ETF Capital Flows and Contest Around $70,000 Level

- If capital flows into ETFs continue as they did this week, Bitcoin may attempt to break through the upper resistance in the $70,000-$75,000 range. (theblock.co)

- Conversely, if ceasefire-related news deteriorates or rates spike again, adjustments back to the mid-to-high $60,000 range are possible.

To summarize, this week was a textbook picture of "war fears easing → risk assets relief rally," but neither war, rates, nor oil prices have been "completely resolved." From an investor's perspective, this week's rebound should be leveraged as an opportunity for portfolio rebalancing (position adjustment), while carefully monitoring ceasefire news, inflation, and Fed messaging to plan the next steps.

This content is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation to invest in any specific securities or assets.

Source: https://nextinvest.org/ko