I fine-tuned a stock market model by selecting 14b and 30b models with different parameters from the same company and same model

I spent about a month struggling and rebuilding it several times because I didn't know how to fine-tune or what data to use, but this time it seems to have come out a bit better, so I'm posting a review of it

14b model basic fine-tuning, fine-tuning + chain-of-thought

30b basic, basic + chain-of-thought

I compared them this way, and while the 14b model basic version wasn't bad, when I compared it using the same data with the fine-tuned model, it only took 2/3 of the speed compared to the basic model, and when summarizing the content to 1/2, quick summarization with the fine-tuned 14b model also seemed reasonable. And when I looked into whether local models could do chain-of-thought, I found that you can ask the model to think once more through a prompt and create a report, so when I tried it that way, it seemed to reach a similar level as the 30b model. Now with the 30b model chain-of-thought prompt, the speed takes longer, but when I see the output doesn't differ that much, it seems fine-tuning is effective

Speed is

| Item | 14b Fine-tuned+CoT | 30b CoT |

| ------ | ------------ | ----------- |

| Time | 271 seconds | 430 seconds |

| Speed | 13.7 t/s | 6.8 t/s |

| Crash Risk | 7/10 | 7/10, 6/10 |

| Action | wait | reduce |

| Features | Structured, fact-focused | Narrative, bold formatting |

Much reduced

I was told that my agent + Claude + GPT are at similar levels

Market Situation Report — 2026-06-10 (Based on 114 News Articles)

Model: phi4-stock:14b (fine-tuned + CoT) via Ollama
News: 114 articles, Batch: 2
Total time: 271.3 seconds, Total tokens: 3729

---

## Part 1

# Market Situation Report — 2026-06-10 (Batch 1)

## 1. Key Summary
Today's major trends include TSMC's CFO not ruling out semiconductor price increases, Micron appointing an AI and semiconductor expert as director, and Samsung and SK considering a new packaging plant in Honam. Looking at the numbers, Micron has a 2026 revenue projection of $110.3 billion and EPS of $58.93.

## 2. Key Facts
- TSMC CFO does not rule out the possibility of semiconductor price increases.
- Micron projects 2026 revenue of $110.3 billion and EPS of $58.93.
- Samsung and SK are considering building a semiconductor packaging plant in the Honam region.

## 3. Sector Impact
| Sector | Impact | Basis |
|------|------|------|
| Semiconductors/AI | Positive | TSMC's possible price increase and Samsung and SK's Honam packaging plant plan can have a positive impact on the market. |
| Finance | Volatile | NVIDIA, Meta, Broadcom and other outlooks can affect financial markets. |
| Energy | Positive | Showcase of capabilities in robots, healthcare, drones in Wonju, New Zealand LNG terminal construction and other can have a positive impact on the market. |
| Defense | Positive | Convergence of defense and robotics technology, opening of Defense Industry Expo in Daejeon has a positive impact on the market. |

## 4. Crash Risk
- downside-risk severity: 7/10
- Maximum 1-day decline: 5%
- Maximum 5-day decline: 15%
- Risk factors:
1. TSMC's possible semiconductor price increases
2. AI semiconductor stock price volatility
3. Supply chain issues and cost increases

## 5. Invalidation Conditions
- If TSMC clearly rules out semiconductor price increases or AI semiconductor stock price volatility recovers stably, the crash prediction may be wrong.

## 6. Recommended Action
- Action: wait
- Basis: Considering the downside-risk from TSMC's possible price increases and AI semiconductor stock price volatility, waiting is currently the safest approach.

---

## Part 2

# Market Situation Report — 2026-06-10 (Batch 2)

## 1. Key Summary
Today the market recovered the KOSPI index due to strength in AI and semiconductor-related stocks. Samsung Electronics maintains a 38.6% D-RAM market share and is showing an upward trend, and SK Hynix's stock price surged 14%, pulling up the KOSPI index. Hanmi Semiconductor and Gaon Electronics respectively signed supply contracts with SK Hynix for HBM4 equipment and AI datacenter power infrastructure.

## 2. Key Facts
- Samsung Electronics maintains the number one position with 38.6% D-RAM market share and is the only company among the three memory manufacturers showing an upward trend.
- SK Hynix's stock price surged 14%, pulling up the KOSPI index.
- Hanmi Semiconductor won an order from SK Hynix for $44.2 billion TC bonder equipment for HBM4.
- Gaon Electronics signed a supply contract worth 60 billion won for bus duct supply to U.S. generative AI datacenters.

## 3. Sector Impact
| Sector | Impact | Basis |
|------|------|------|
| Semiconductors/AI | Positive | Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are showing strength, and AI-related equipment orders are active. |
| Finance | Positive | SK Hynix's stock price rise is pulling up the KOSPI index. |
| Energy | Negative | Increased power consumption of AI datacenters may create a burden on the energy sector. |
| Defense | Positive | Advances in defense-related robotics technology have a positive impact. |

## 4. Crash Risk
- downside-risk severity: 4/10
- Maximum 1-day decline: 8%
- Maximum 5-day decline: 15%
- Risk factors:
1. Excessive increase possibility of AI-related stocks.
2. Data center operational issues due to energy shortages.
3. Intensified competition in the semiconductor market.

## 5. Invalidation Conditions
- If AI-related stocks decline sharply.
- If data center operational problems due to energy shortages become severe.
- If new competitors emerge in the semiconductor market.

## 6. Recommended Action
- Action: hold
- Basis: Currently the AI and semiconductor sector is showing strength, and there are many positive facts. However, we need to keep in mind the risk of excessive increases and energy shortages.

---

Market Situation Report — 2026-06-10 (114 articles, 30b CoT)

Model: granite4.1:30b (CoT)
News: 114 articles, Batch: 2
Total time: 430.0 seconds, Total tokens: 2913

---

## Part 1

Comprehensive Market Situation Report

1. Key Summary:
- TSMC is not ruling out semiconductor price increases due to cost pressure from inflation, and strategic cooperation and investment in AI and semiconductor fields are actively underway. Micron aims for 2026 revenue of $110.3 billion, and Korea-Japan cooperation in AI and semiconductors is emerging as a strategic weapon. On the other hand, global stock markets are experiencing increased volatility due to sharp fluctuations in AI semiconductor stock prices, and in the energy sector, hydrogen power generation and heat pump technology dissemination are emerging as important issues. (Figures: TSMC's possible semiconductor price increases, Micron's 2026 revenue target of $110.3 billion)

2. Key Facts:
- TSMC CFO does not rule out the possibility of semiconductor price increases (inflation pressure)
- Micron projects 2026 revenue of $110.3 billion and EPS of $58.93
- Korea-Japan AI and semiconductor cooperation emphasized (SK Chairman announcement)
- Global stock market AI semiconductor price volatility increased (NASDAQ down 1% etc.)
- Energy sector: 1,430GWh hydrogen power generation opened, heat pump dissemination barriers remain

3. Sector Impact:
- Semiconductors/AI: Market volatility increases due to TSMC's possible price increases, Micron's growth prospects, and expanded Korea-Japan cooperation. AI-related technology investment and cooperation are actively underway.
- Finance: Increased uncertainty among investors due to sharp fluctuations in AI semiconductor stock prices in stock markets. Continued global market volatility such as NASDAQ decline is possible.
- Energy: Hydrogen power generation and heat pump technology dissemination are emerging as important issues, with economic and structural barriers remaining.
- Defense/Robotics: Defense Industry Expo is being held and robotics technology applications are increasing, particularly notable is the entry of large companies like Hyundai Motor into the robotics business.

4. Crash Risk: 7
- Crash risk is rated high due to increased market volatility from semiconductor price increase possibilities, AI-related investment fluctuations, and global economic conditions.

5. Recommended Action: reduce
- Considering current market uncertainty and volatility, position reduction is recommended, while seeking opportunities from a long-term perspective and focusing on short-term risk management.

---

## Part 2

Comprehensive Market Situation Report

1. Key Summary:
- Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are driving AI memory demand surge with 38.6% market share in the global D-RAM and HBM markets and V-shaped recovery (13-15% stock price increase), respectively.
- Energy infrastructure companies like Gaon Electronics are securing power supply contracts for U.S. generative AI datacenters (60 billion won scale) to respond to surging datacenter power demand.
- Meanwhile, Wall Street is issuing warnings about concentrated investment centered on NVIDIA and raising concerns about AI bubbles.

2. Key Facts:
- Samsung Electronics D-RAM market share 38.6%, SK Hynix stock price increase 13-15%.
- Gaon Electronics signed a 60 billion won power supply contract for U.S. generative AI datacenters.
- Intel Foundry is emerging as an alternative supplier to TSMC by securing Google AI chip production.
- Wall Street issues warnings on concentrated NVIDIA-centered investment and raising AI bubble concerns.

3. Sector Impact:
- Semiconductors/AI: Semiconductor sub-market growth from Samsung and SK Hynix D-RAM and HBM demand surge, Intel Foundry AI chip production, etc.
- Energy/Power Infrastructure: Increased investment and supply expansion from companies like Gaon Electronics due to surging datacenter power demand.
- Finance: Wall Street's AI bubble warnings and concentrated NVIDIA investment concerns amplify stock price volatility.
- Other (Robotics): High volatility in robotics-related stock returns.

4. Crash Risk: 6/10
- High short-term stability due to surging semiconductor and AI server demand, but volatility risk exists from power infrastructure supply shortages and Wall Street warnings (concentrated NVIDIA investment).

5. Recommended Action:
- Hold: Major semiconductors (AI memory, packaging) and AI server-related companies (hold).
- Reduce: Diversify high-beta AI stock portfolio following Wall Street warnings (reduce).
- Wait: After confirming power infrastructure supply constraints and policy volatility expansion (wait).
- Exit: Consider exit if specific robotics stock performance continues to decline.

Conclusion: Currently, AI and semiconductor sub-markets are acting as growth drivers, but careful portfolio management is necessary due to higher volatility risk from power infrastructure supply shortages and bubble warnings from Wall Street.

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Since this is my first time today, there will be proper comparison later as it accumulates, but for now this is my first attempt and it seems to have come out reasonably well

As I'm a layperson, I don't know much about this, so it just looks okay to my eyes

My future goal is to increase fine-tuning data from 40,000 to 100,000 pieces and train it, that's my short-term goal. Can I do it by September????