6/9 Asset Market - US 10-Year Yield Rises to 4.56%, AI Stocks Adjust, Bitcoin Weakness Deepens

June 09, 2026 Macroeconomic Daily Market Report

## 1. A Glance at Today's Market

Today (June 9th, Eastern US Time) the US market saw "interest rates rising again slightly, AI tech stocks taking a breather, and Bitcoin weakening further."

- 10-Year US Treasury Yield: Rose to around 4.56% (1-day +0.22%, 90-day +9.88%)

- US Stock ETFs:

  - S&P 500 ETF(SPY) -0.20%

  - Nasdaq 100 ETF(QQQ) -0.88% (Weakness centered on AI and growth stocks)

  - Dow(DIA) +0.10%, relatively defensive

- Dollar Index(DXY): -0.07% slight weakness, +2.18% over the past 30 days

- Bitcoin(BTC): $61,985 (-1.72%), 30 days -24.58%

- Ethereum(ETH): $1,657 (-1.92%), 30 days -30.09%

Ahead of tomorrow's US Consumer Price Index (CPI) release, bonds, stocks, and cryptocurrencies are all "adjusting prices" in response to the question, "What if the Fed stays hawkish longer than expected?" (riotimesonline.com)

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## 2. Bonds & Interest Rates: 10-Year Yield at 4.56%, "Era of Lower Interest Rates" Still Distant

### 2-1. What Happened?

- The 10-year Treasury yield rose again today to around 4.56% (1-day +0.22%).

- Over the past 90 days, the 10-year yield has risen by approximately 9.9%. In other words, interest rate levels have generally moved up a notch since spring.

- Some reports interpret this as "the market still pricing in the possibility of further rate hikes or prolonged high interest rates."

- However, as of this morning, there was also a "breathing room" pattern observed in the bond market, with yields temporarily dropping by 1bp (0.01%p) ahead of tomorrow's CPI release.

### 2-2. Simplifying the Terminology

- Treasury Yield (Interest Rate): The interest rate promised by the US government when it borrows money. An increase means "the market is demanding a higher interest rate = borrowing money becomes more expensive."

- 10-Year Treasury: A bond with a maturity of 10 years. It's often seen as a "benchmark interest rate" in the market and serves as a reference point for valuing almost all assets, including stocks, real estate, and corporate loans.

### 2-3. Why is it Rising? (Causes)

1. Strong Employment Data

   - Last week's US employment data (Nonfarm Payrolls) came in stronger than expected, leading the market to believe "the Fed may not lower interest rates quickly."

2. 'Caution Mode' Ahead of Tomorrow's CPI

   - The consensus forecast for May CPI, to be released tomorrow (June 10th), is +0.5% m/m for the headline figure and +0.3% m/m for core inflation.

   - If the figures exceed expectations, concerns may rise again that "the Fed could maintain higher interest rates for longer."

3. Long-Term Structure: While a downward trend in interest rates has been observed since late 2023, recent upward pressure has resurfaced.

- Over the past 5 years, looking at monthly data, the 10-year Treasury yield reached a peak of 4.8% in October 2023, followed by a gradual decline of -6.67%.

- However, as evidenced by the recent 90-day +9.88% surge, the trend is "a gradual decline, but a short-term (last few months) rebound."

### 2-4. What does this mean for investors?

- Conservative investors (those with a high proportion of bonds and cash)

  - The fact that the 10-year yield is around 4.5~4.6% means it's providing a relatively decent "risk-free rate of return."

  - This allows investors to secure an annual return in the 4% range without taking on significant stock market risk, making it a good time to consider "realizing some profits from stocks and moving them into bonds."

- Growth stock and technology stock investors

  - As interest rates rise, the future earnings of growth stocks are discounted at a higher rate, leading to a larger reduction in their value.

  - Today's relatively larger decline in the Nasdaq is partly due to this "interest rate level rebound."

- Real estate and leverage investors

  - If the 10-year yield remains high, mortgage rates and corporate loan rates will also remain at elevated levels.

  - Depending on tomorrow's CPI results, expectations for a significant drop in mortgage rates this year could be adjusted again.

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## 3. Stocks: AI high-growth stocks adjust, Dow rises slightly

### 3-1. ETF performance today

- S&P 500 ETF (SPY): -0.20% (1 day), 90 days +9.38%

- Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ): -0.88% (1 day), 90 days +16.95%

- Dow ETF (DIA): +0.10% (1 day), 90 days +7.62%

In other words, QQQ (technology and AI focused) which has risen the most over the past 3 months, fell the most today, while the Dow, which has a higher proportion of value stocks and cyclical stocks, actually rose.

According to AP News, the New York Stock Exchange "was swayed again by the volatility of AI-related stocks," with AI semiconductor, memory, and related infrastructure companies rising in early trading but falling sharply in the afternoon. This led the S&P 500 to close down -0.3% and the Nasdaq down -1%. The Dow rose +0.2%, showing a defensive trend. (apnews.com)

### 3-2. Why are AI and tech stocks particularly volatile?

1. Entering a zone where they have risen too much, too quickly

   - The Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) has risen +16.95% in the past 90 days. During the same period, the S&P 500 rose +9.38%, indicating that AI and big tech have been leading the rally.

   - In this situation, a combination of rising interest rates and tomorrow's CPI release is likely to signal to investors "it's time to realize some profits."

2. Competition for funds with the AI theme – money flowing out of crypto and other growth sectors

- Today's report suggests that one of the main reasons why inflows into Bitcoin ETFs have weakened since 2026 is "individual investors switching to AI-related stocks." (coindesk.com)

   - In other words, while AI is still "a theme attracting investment," there is increasing volatility and adjustment within the sector.

### 3-3. What does this mean for investors?

- Portfolios with a high proportion of AI and big tech

  - Today's adjustment is more likely "a period to reassess interest rates and valuations" rather than the end of the trend.

  - A short-term 5~10% correction is possible for assets that have risen 15~17% over the past 3 months. Tomorrow's CPI and subsequent Fed statements are likely to determine whether there will be further adjustments or a rally.

- Investors focused on defensive stocks and dividend stocks

  - As evidenced by the Dow's positive performance today, companies with stable cash flows, dividend payers, and value stocks are showing relative resilience.

  - In a high interest rate environment, "companies that are currently making money" may be more favored by the market than "companies that will grow significantly in the future."

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## 4. Crypto: Bitcoin Over $60,000, 'AI Hype + ETF Outflow' Double Pressure

### 4-1. Price and Short-Term Trends

- Bitcoin (BTC): $61,985 (-1.72% 1 day)

  - 7 days -7.02%, 30 days -24.58%, 90 days -11.71%

- Ethereum (ETH): $1,657 (-1.92% 1 day)

  - 7 days -10.72%, 30 days -30.09%, 90 days -19.24%

Today is closer to a "weak rebound/sideways trading" phase after the sharp decline that continued from last week. According to various on-chain and derivatives data, Bitcoin temporarily dropped below $60,000 before currently settling in the low $60,000s, with some analysis suggesting it's "finding a bottom." (tradingnews.com)

### 4-2. Reasons for the Decline: AI Money Flow, ETF Outflows, Worsening Macro Environment

1. AI Theme Money Flow

   - Major research indicates that inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs have significantly slowed down since 2026.

   - The analysis suggests that "individual investors and some institutional funds have moved to AI-related stocks." (coindesk.com)

2. ETF Outflows and Deleveraging (Reducing Leverage)

   - It is estimated that approximately $4 billion has been withdrawn from US Bitcoin spot ETFs in the past three weeks. (coinstats.app)

   - In the derivatives market, open interest futures contracts have also decreased significantly, leading to a "forced liquidation phase" where leverage is reduced. This has created a vicious cycle of price decline → leverage liquidation → further decline. (interactivecrypto.com)

3. Macro Variables: Employment Shock and Interest Rate Hike

   - The strong employment data and the rise in 10-year Treasury yields have acted as a signal for "risk asset reduction" in the crypto market.

   - Notably, Bitcoin's RSI (price momentum indicator) has dropped to the mid-20s, suggesting it has entered an oversold zone. (interactivecrypto.com)

### 4-3. What Does This Mean for Investors?

- Short-Term Traders

  - Many analyses suggest that Bitcoin is technically close to an "oversold zone."

  - However, with ETF outflows not completely stopping, the view prevails that "while a short-term rebound may occur, the direction is not yet clearly reversed."

- Long-Term Holders (Investors Holding for 3 Years or More)

  - Due to macro variables like employment and inflation, it is important to acknowledge that a "limitless liquidity" bull market like 2024-2025 may not be imminent.

  - However, structurally,

    - the institutionalization of Bitcoin spot ETFs,

    - the decrease in supply growth rate (halving effect),

    - and demand from some countries and institutions

    are reasons why many advocate for a "long-term divided buying/selling strategy."

- Investors Watching Both AI and Crypto Themes

  - Today's message is clear: "AI and crypto are in a relationship where they compete for capital."

  - As the AI theme heats up, profit-taking funds may flow back into crypto. Conversely, during periods when AI attracts significant capital, crypto volatility could increase.

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## 5. Dollar and Commodities: Dollar Takes a Breather, Gold, Silver, Oil Continue to Adjust

### 5-1. Dollar Index (DXY)

- DXY: Today 99.94 (-0.07%)

  - 7 days +0.64%, 30 days +2.18%, 90 days +1.35%

- A 5-year structural trend shows a slight decline (-5.57%) since November 2022, but looking at the last 1-3 months, it's closer to a "rebound (rally) within a downtrend."

Meaning: With the dollar neither strongly bullish nor bearish, staying in a neutral zone, today's market protagonist wasn't the "dollar" but rather "interest rates and themes (especially AI·crypto)."

### 5-2. Gold·Silver·Crude Oil ETFs

- Gold (GLD): 1 day -1.63%, 30 days -9.91%, 90 days -17.94%

- Silver (SLV): 1 day -3.95%, 30 days -18.98%, 90 days -24.08%

- Crude Oil (USO): 1 day -2.86%, 7 days -4.36%, 90 days +21.51%

Summary:

- Gold and silver have risen significantly over the past three months, but are currently experiencing a fairly deep correction alongside the recent rise in interest rates.

- Crude oil is undergoing short-term adjustments (-1~4%) but remains up over +21% on a 90-day basis, making it a strong asset.

Investor Perspective:

- Gold and silver are often used as "inflation·risk aversion hedges," but in a high interest rate environment, they tend to lose popularity because they don't pay interest.

- Crude oil is influenced by geopolitical risks in the Middle East and expectations of global demand recovery. Short-term news (truce negotiations, supply adjustments) can lead to significant volatility. (stonex.com)

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## 6. Seeing Today in the Context of a 5-Year Picture

Finally, summarizing today's movements within the larger 5-year picture:

1. Policy Interest Rate (Fed Funds)

   - After November 2024, the Fed funds rate entered a gradual downward trend (-21.77%).

   - However, the current level (3.63%) is still historically high compared to pre-pandemic levels.

2. Inflation (CPI·Core PCE)

   - Both CPI and Core PCE show a significant slowdown in the rate of increase after 2024, with recent months experiencing a slight upward trend.

   - Tomorrow's CPI results could determine whether this "gradual increase" will continue or if concerns about "entrenched inflation" will resurface.

3. Unemployment Rate·Industrial Production

   - The unemployment rate has risen slightly from the 4.3% level for several months and is now declining slightly.

   - Industrial production is expected to see a gradual recovery (+2.43%) starting in 2025.

Summary:

- The Fed has already shifted from "ultra-high interest rates" to a mode of "still high, but gradually decreasing interest rates."

- However, since inflation and employment haven't fully cooled down yet, the market anticipates that "interest rates won't quickly return to the 0%~1% range."

- Today's rise in 10-year Treasury yields and adjustments in AI·crypto can be understood as natural breathing room within this "high for longer" interest rate environment.

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## 7. Points to Watch Tomorrow (June 10th) and Beyond

1. CPI Release (June 10th)

   - Consensus is for a headline rate of 0.5% and a core rate of 0.3%.

   - Higher than expected:

     - Further increase in 10-year Treasury yields → potential for additional pressure on growth stocks·crypto

   - Lower than expected:

     - Expectations that the Fed may ease sooner than anticipated → possibility of a short-term rally in growth stocks·high-risk assets

2. Fed Member Statements and FOMC Minutes

   - Pay attention to any hints the Fed provides about the timing and pace of interest rate cuts after reviewing employment and inflation data.

3. Capital Flows in AI Themes and Crypto

   - It's crucial to observe whether AI-related stocks continue to attract capital or if some profit-taking flows back into crypto and other risk assets.

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## 8. Today's One-Line Summary

“The Fed's 'high interest rates for a long time' picture is coming back to mind, and the 10-year Treasury yield has exceeded 4.5%, while AI tech stocks and Bitcoin are paying the price for overheating and leverage. Whether tomorrow's CPI will make this an 'interim break' or the beginning of greater volatility is crucial.”

This content is written for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice for any particular security or asset.

Source: https://nextinvest.org/ko

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