Today's Nvidia earnings announcement was quite moving, so the mood is good,
but the team leader's atmosphere is strange...
Of course, we have to consider that Hynix and Samsung are buying back their own shares.
Usually, one side buys a lot more than the other, or both sides share it,
but now it feels like they're pushing each other away.
Looking at today's supply and demand, foreigners didn't buy 50 billion won on the buying side, institutions bought 800 billion won hesitantly, and individuals have been selling.
Looking at the differential supply and demand graph, it seems that foreigners and institutions are very unhappy with the fact that individuals are selling.
Foreigners sold a bit before the interest rate announcement this morning, but started buying again when they reached 6850 won. As the index rose, they sold continuously from 1 pm to 2 pm, and started buying again little by little when it reached 6880 won.
It felt like they were buying at 1080 based on futures, and institutions didn't seem to want to raise it quickly. They bought a little bit of what foreigners were throwing away, but from 2 pm onwards, pension funds and investment trusts started selling, and ended up with a buying line of 1.8 trillion won.
Of course, looking at the current index status, it seems to be drawing a triangle convergence or double bottom neckline breakout at 6900 won,
but when it recently dropped to 6400 won, financial investments suddenly started buying mechanically. They bought 1 trillion won that day and closed at 6742.
As soon as the index touched the lower end of the uptrend channel, financial investments started buying,
they were deliberately making a chart that hit the channel bottom and rose. Today, they adjusted the top to prevent a breakout above 6900 won and closed at 6912.
So here are some possible scenarios:
Draw a resistance line at the short-term high of 6954 and sideways for a few more days
Gap up strongly above 6954 within two days and secure 7000 won
Drop back to the channel bottom to strengthen the triangle convergence pattern
I think these scenarios will happen.
First of all, creating an upward triangle convergence means that there are a lot of stocks at that index level (Samsung around 26~270,000 won, Hynix around 170~1750,000 won). If you buy them all from above, it's a loss. So they pull them down to make people sell and create downward pressure.
Here, the upward triangle convergence means that there was a lot of selling pressure due to fear at first, but as time goes by, the corresponding stock level is digested, the downward pressure weakens, and eventually, towards the end of the triangle convergence, a sudden surge appears.
This is technical analysis, but looking at why it happens, my personal opinion is that if there are no bad factors related to Iran or Chinese semiconductors, the probability of going up to the next stage channel is higher.
To go up, a certain buying force needs to be concentrated on one side,
but foreigners and institutions are very ambiguous. The only hope for going to the next stage is the futures buying of foreigners.
Foreigners bought a lot of futures last night, and they continued to buy futures during the day. Looking at the September expiry, it seems that the upward trend is expected.
Of course, there are too many variables to say for sure that it will go up. But looking at the decrease in futures buying and stock futures open interest, it seems like short covering is driving the price up.
@Ilsan Tteuneunso 's data made this explanation possible, and it's a regression analysis.
The upper side is dominant, and the first target is 7367 (about 6.5% higher than the current price), which is the point of return to the basic trend line. The graph direction is not as steep as in May, but it is heading upwards.
AI analyzes that there is a high possibility of rebounding while returning to the trend. Please note that this analysis does not include information on self-share purchases by Hynix and Samsung Electronics, and only looks at the chart, so the explanation may be slightly inaccurate.
Looking at today's supply and demand data, I couldn't help but feel uneasy.
For a few days, there has been a strange standoff between foreign investors and institutions who are expecting self-share purchases by our two major companies. In the meantime, such a technical graph was created, and now we are in a situation where we have to decide which direction to turn.
Perhaps deciding this direction is today's Jackson Hole meeting and Nvidia's earnings. Nvidia's earnings were impressive, and now it seems that whether bad news comes out at today's Jackson Hole meeting will determine the short-term direction.
When you look closely at stocks, there are so many variables that it's a headache. Right now, I feel relieved but uncomfortable because I can't go up.
In such a complex market with many calculations, index investors are very envious.
September: FOMC interest rate announcement and Micron's third-quarter earnings report on September 30th
October: Entropic IPO, Samsung's third-quarter earnings report, Hynix's third-quarter earnings report
November: US midterm elections
Every month, there are a lot of events without any breaks, so I think the market will be difficult until the second half of this year.
