Hello, this is Pazz.
It's been a long time since I've written on Stock Han-dang.
I've been quite busy writing a book(?) recently ^^ I'll share news about this book as soon as it comes out~
First, there's news that the listing process related to Fadu, which I criticized(?) around the end of 2024, has begun
Here is the related news
https://n.news.naver.com/mnews/article/629/0000468367
Please refer to the article I wrote in 2024...
https://damoang.net/stock/2710?sfl=wr_subject&stx=%ED%8C%8C%EB%91%90&sop=and
In the end, I think it was a predetermined game where the outcome was roughly expected by those in the industry.
Regardless, such wrongdoing that exploits retail investors' money should be clearly punished and those responsible should be expelled so that such incidents don't happen again...
And today, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, which had been rising sharply, are finally receiving some correction
I honestly don't know whether they will receive some correction and then surge upward again or consolidate for a considerable period here,
What is certain is that memory semiconductors have always had cycles throughout their 50-year history, and stock prices have led the cycle peak by 6 months to 1 year. Everyone tends to forget, but in the past, when memory semiconductor companies' operating profits peaked, stock prices were already in decline for several months or more. If you don't understand this, you'll only be frustrated wondering why stock prices decline when operating profits are rushing toward their peak.
Therefore, current semiconductor stock prices are already reflecting the memory market conditions of the first half of 2027.
Since stock prices have risen considerably more than in other cycles, I believe it has reflected about a year's difference earlier.
Is now a period of structural change due to the AI revolution? Well... it was the same when smartphones emerged 15 years ago, and the same story was told when the data center boom occurred 8 years ago. Each time, a period of structural change in the memory industry has come where the proportion of memory product categories changed completely. But what was the result..? History repeats itself. I believe this time will be no different.
From that perspective, SK Hynix and Micron, which are all-in on memory, worry me a lot...
The memory boom may continue a bit longer, but it would be good for everyone to manage risks clearly.
Thank you.
