4/6 Asset Markets - Stock Markets and Bitcoin Rise Together Despite Oil Tensions, Long-term Interest Rates Edge Slightly Higher
April 06, 2026 Macroeconomic Daily Market Report
## Today's Market at a Glance
Today in the U.S. market was "cautiously relieved, yet tension remains."
- U.S. Stock ETFs Overall Up: S&P 500 ETF (SPY) +0.44%, Nasdaq QQQ +0.59%, Dow DIA +0.37%
- Long-term Interest Rates Slightly Higher: 10-year Treasury Yield at 4.35%, up +0.93% for the day
- Dollar Essentially Flat: Dollar Index (DXY) 100.2, up +0.02% for the day
- Oil Prices Continue High: Around $110 per barrel on WTI basis, with ongoing Middle East (Iran) war and Strait of Hormuz blockade risks (exchangerates.org.uk)
- Bitcoin and Ethereum Rise Together: BTC +1.22%, ETH +1.83%, with improved investor sentiment amid reports of Iran war ceasefire (finance.yahoo.com)
Key Message: "Oil prices and geopolitical risks remain in the red zone, but the market is in a mood of 'we seem to have avoided the worst for now.'"
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## 1. Bond Market: 10-year Treasury Yield Edges Slightly Higher to 4.35%
- 10-year Treasury Yield 4.35% (up +0.93% for the day)
- 10-year Treasury Yield is the interest rate the U.S. government promises to pay when borrowing money for 10 years. In simple terms, it's the number showing "what annual percentage interest you receive when investing in 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds."
- Today's rate fluctuated within approximately 4.26-4.42%, and in the morning, it rose another 1-2 basis points (0.01-0.02 percentage points) as markets digested President Trump's comments about plans to strike Iranian power facilities (with a Tuesday evening deadline). (greystone.com)
- On a 30-day basis it's up +6.36% and on a 90-day basis up +3.82%, so today's rise can be seen as a continuation of the "rising rate trend" that has been underway for the past 1-3 months.
> Why Does This Matter?
> The 10-year rate serves as a benchmark for long-term loan rates like mortgages, corporate bonds, and student loans.
> Higher rates mean the "interest cost" of buying a house, growing a company, or investing in a startup is more expensive, which ultimately becomes a burden on growth stocks, real estate, and leveraged companies.
### Real Rates (TIPS) Also Edge Slightly Higher
- 10-year TIPS Real Yield 1.99% (up +1.02% for the day)
- TIPS Real Yield is bond returns adjusted for inflation. In short, it's "the real interest that remains in my hands after subtracting inflation."
- Looking at the 7-day (-6.57%) and 90-day (+2.58%) trends, the recent one week is a breather, and three months show a slow upward bias.
> So Why Is This Important for Me?
> High real rates mean "even holding just cash or safe bonds provides quite decent real interest income."
> In this case, there's no need to take risks on growth stocks, emerging markets, or cryptocurrencies—"bonds alone provide sufficient returns," which can be long-term headwinds for risky assets.
### Yield Curve: Gradually Normalizing from Inversion
- 10-year minus 2-year Spread (Yield Curve): +0.51% (down -1.92% for the day)
- Yield Curve is the difference between short-term rates (2-year) and long-term rates (10-year).
- Typically when the economy is healthy, long-term rates are higher. When the economy is very uncertain, short-term rates become abnormally high, showing an "inversion."
- This spread has moved -29.17% over 90 days, showing significant volatility, indicating that the market has continued changing scenarios between "recession" and "possible mild recovery."
> One-Line Summary:
> With 10-year Treasury yields edging higher again today, it was a day that reconfirmed the message: "interest rate cuts won't come anytime soon."
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## 2. Oil and Commodities: High Oil Prices Locked in Amid Strait of Hormuz Risks
- WTI Oil Price Trading Around $110 per Barrel Today
- According to multiple sources, WTI is trading around $110, with Brent crude also holding in the $107-110 range. (fortune.com)
- WTI is U.S. crude oil prices, Brent is European and Middle Eastern crude oil prices.
- USO (U.S. Oil ETF) 138.71, up +0.57% for the day
- On a 30-day basis +27.53%, on a 90-day basis +102.47%, meaning it has essentially doubled over the past three months.
- Behind this trend are supply shocks stemming from the Iran war, Strait of Hormuz blockade threats, and bombings of Kharg Island. (en.wikipedia.org)
> Technical Terms Explained
> - Strait of Hormuz: A narrow maritime passage that acts like the lifeline for global oil and gas transport. About 20% of the world's oil and gas passes through here.
> - Supply Shock: A situation where the amount of oil being extracted or transported suddenly drops due to war, sanctions, accidents, etc.
> Why Is This Important for Me?
> If oil prices sustain above $100 per barrel for a long time, it affects daily life across the board: gas stations, airline tickets, delivery fees, heating costs, etc.
> At the same time, high oil prices can trigger economic slowdown (people spend less), creating the worst-case combination (stagflation) of "high prices but sluggish growth."
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## 3. U.S. Stocks: "Cautious Gains" - Neither Crash Nor Major Rally
- S&P 500 ETF (SPY) 658.72, up +0.44% for the day
- Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) 588.42, up +0.59% for the day
- Dow ETF (DIA) 466.77, up +0.37% for the day
By actual index measures, the S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq all closed with "modest gains" of around 0.4-0.5%. (apnews.com)
Today, the stock market saw two forces tug-of-war.
1. Negative Factors
- Oil soaring → rising corporate costs, consumer spending concerns
- Rising long-term rates → burden on growth stocks and real estate
2. Positive Factors
- Reports of Iran war ceasefire and diplomatic exploration creating expectations of "maybe we'll avoid the worst" (finance.yahoo.com)
- After some volatility, some investors showed buying psychology of "let me gradually buy again when it's bad"
> By Analogy:
> The market feels like "there are still police cars and ambulances outside the house, but the fire seems to have peaked."
> While investors aren't completely at ease, it's like they're testing the waters by slowly stepping back outside (into the market).
> What Does This Mean for Individual Investors?
> - Today's modest rebound isn't so much a signal that "the crisis is completely over," but rather "based on current information, we don't want to bet purely on fear."
> - In particular, QQQ (big tech/growth stocks) is up +5.40% on a 7-day basis, showing a quite strong tech rebound recently.
> However, at 30-day -1.76% and 90-day -5.50%, from a 1-3 month perspective, it's still in the recovery phase.
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## 4. Dollar and Global Stocks: "Super Strong Dollar" It's Not, But Still Solid
- Dollar Index (DXY) 100.20, up +0.02% for the day
- Dollar Index is a composite score comparing the dollar to a basket of major currencies like the euro, yen, and pound.
- Today it was virtually flat, but on a 30-day basis +0.97% and 90-day basis +1.58%, showing mild dollar strength over recent months.
- Global ETFs also rose together:
- Emerging Markets VWO +0.35%, Europe VGK +0.67%, Japan EWJ +0.33%
> Why Is This Important?
> When the dollar is strong:
> - U.S. residents find overseas travel and foreign assets cheaper, and
> - Emerging countries struggle more with debt repayment (dollar-denominated debt).
>
> Today, with the dollar barely moving, "no additional dollar-related shocks occurred," but on a 1-3 month basis, the dollar is still standing on high ground.
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## 5. Cryptocurrencies: "Risky Asset Mini Rally" Amid War Ceasefire Hopes
- Bitcoin (BTC) $69,846, up +1.22% for the day
- Ethereum (ETH) $2,148, up +1.83% for the day
The crypto market today showed "risky asset slight pullback" patterns similar to stocks, amid reports of possible Iran war ceasefire negotiations. (finance.yahoo.com)
- On a 7-day basis, BTC +4.65%, ETH +6.07%, showing quite meaningful rebounds over the past week.
- However, on a 90-day basis, BTC -25.47%, ETH -34.83%, making this more of a technical rebound after significant correction over the past three months.
> By Analogy:
> - The crypto market is like a roller coaster.
> - Today is like the section where the roller coaster bounces up after plunging, not enough to recover the large decline from the past three months.
> What Does This Mean for Individuals?
> - When even slight signals of geopolitical risk easing (war) emerge, crypto is one of the first to react.
> - However, given high real rates (bond interest), for crypto to keep winning in the "crypto vs. cash/bonds" competition, it needs stronger narratives (regulatory easing, ETF inflows, etc.).
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## 6. Gold and Silver: "Safe Assets" but in Short-term Correction Phase
- Gold ETF (GLD) 427.61, down -0.42% for the day
- 7-day +3.14%, showing recent 1-week recovery, but 30-day -9.69%, down considerably over the month.
- Silver ETF (SLV) 66.09, up +0.46% for the day
- 7-day +4.05%, but 30-day -12.97%, 90-day -10.34%, showing medium-to-long-term correction.
> Term Explanation
> - Safe Assets: Assets people seek during crises thinking "at least this won't fail" (U.S. Treasuries, gold, etc.).
> Why Are They Falling?
> - When real rates rise, "reasons for holding interest-paying gold diminish."
> - In situations like today where war continues but immediate escalation is less discussed than negotiation possibilities, extreme safe-asset preference also eases slightly.
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## Today's Big Picture Summary: How Are They Connected?
1. Oil and Geopolitical Risks
- Iran war and Strait of Hormuz blockade concerns → oil locked above $100 → inflation pressure maintained (especially energy and logistics).
2. Bond Rates
- Oil-driven inflation concerns + Fed additional rate cut delay expectations → 10-year rate maintained at upper level of 4.35%.
3. Stocks and Crypto
- Expectations that "immediate worst-case escalation might not happen after all" → risky asset modest rally (SPY, QQQ, BTC, ETH all up).
4. Dollar and Global Markets
- Dollar virtually flat → relief rally spilling over to emerging markets, Europe, Japan stocks.
> In One Sentence:
> "War, oil, and inflation risks remain switched on, but 'at this moment' investors don't want to view things purely through a bearish lens."
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## Investor Checklist
1) If Considering Loans or Real Estate
- As long as the 10-year rate holds in the mid-4% range, mortgage and long-term fixed-rate loans don't feel cheap.
- Rather than expecting a sharp rate drop, it's realistic to watch "how long rates stay near this level."
2) If Adjusting Stock Allocation
- Today's rebound is less "major uptrend resuming" and more "relief rally within a high-oil, high-rate environment."
- Especially growth stocks like QQQ that surged strongly in recent weeks could be more sensitive to future rate and earnings news.
3) If Interested in Commodities and Energy Stocks
- With USO up over +100% in the past 90 days, it's important to soberly assess "whether it has already risen substantially."
- At the same time, prolonged Strait of Hormuz issues could extend the peak oil price level.
4) For Crypto Investors
- While there was a 7-day rebound (+4-6%), it hasn't recovered the 90-day decline of -25 to -35%.
- In an environment where geopolitical risks and rate levels move together, remember that crypto can be more sensitive to macro variables (oil, rates, dollar).
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## Closing: Today's One Liner
> "Oil is still unsettled, rates are high, but the market is taking a breath of relief for now."
> In the near term, it will be important to watch how war news, oil prices, and the 10-year Treasury rate together impact your investment portfolio.
This content is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations for specific securities or assets.
Source: https://nextinvest.org/ko
