🇰🇷 Market Briefing for September 28, 2026

Benchmark: 2026-09-28 16:30 KST / Regular Cash·KOSPI200 Futures·Options Weekly Market Close

Today's One Sentence

“The KOSPI fell below 7,000 due to selling by foreign investors in large semiconductor stocks and futures, but the decrease in OI (Open Interest) and resilience of the KOSDAQ and non-semiconductor sectors suggest that it is more of a Long liquidation + risk reduction rather than a full-scale new Short position building.”

① Today's Market at a Glance

② ★ Market Quant Score

Market Quant Score: 39 / 100 — Risk Aversion Advantage

Macro Quant Score: 35 / 100

Today's macroeconomic environment was unfavorable for the domestic stock market.

The rise in US interest rates, the burden on global tech stocks, and accumulated uncertainties during the holidays have been reflected in domestic semiconductor large-cap stocks. In public closing data, the sharp decline of Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, and the rise in US Treasury yields were cited as key burdens. NewsPim

③ Foreigners and Institutions' Real-Time Trading

KOSPI

Public closing data also shows foreigners net selling about 3.6 trillion won and institutions net selling about 1.3 trillion won.

★ Key Trading Points

Today's market structure is characterized by individuals buying up shares sold by foreigners and institutions.

In particular, the scale of foreign selling exceeded simple profit-taking levels and can be interpreted as reducing exposure to large-cap stocks.

However, it is important to note that foreigners net bought 34.1 billion won in the KOSDAQ.

In other words:

The selling pressure was more concentrated on KOSPI large-cap stocks and semiconductors rather than a general sell-off of Korean stocks.

④ ★ KOSPI200 Futures Trading + OI + Basis + Program

Futures Final

Futures by Investor Type

★ Today's Most Important Combination

Futures Price↓ + Foreigner Futures Selling + OI↓

This is it.

It is difficult to explain this simply as a typical new short position build (Short Build).

Because the price fell and the OI decreased by -953, there is a high possibility that a significant portion of existing long positions were liquidated (Long Liquidation).

Probabilistic Interpretation

※ OI is the total market OI, so it is not a direct indicator of foreign new Long/Short.

Program Trading

Today, non-arbitrage program selling was overwhelming compared to arbitrage.

In other words, it was a stronger cash flow reducing the spot basket itself rather than a simple derivative basis problem.

Intraday → Closing Changes

Futures continued to decline in the afternoon, and foreign futures cumulative selling also continued.

On the other hand, OI decreased from about 136,000 contracts during the day to 134,000 contracts.

Therefore:

rather than a sudden surge in new shorts as the market fell, it is closer to a structure where existing positions were liquidated and the market was pushed.

⑤ ★ Option Market

Option Supply and Demand by Investor

Foreigners are:

Call selling + Put buying

.

In other words, it is a structure that defends against downside risk even in options along with futures selling.

Key Events

October Call 1050

→ Call price drop + OI decrease.

There is a high possibility that the existing long position liquidation was included.

October Put 1090

→ Put Price↑ + OI↑

This combination can be interpreted as an increase in short-term downside hedging or new Put buying.

PCR

Data Unconfirmed

It is difficult to accurately determine the Put/Call Ratio for the entire market based on today's provided screen, so we will not estimate it.

⑥ Semiconductor and Major Stock Trends

The core of today's KOSPI plunge is semiconductors.

According to publicly available closing data, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix plummeted by over 5%, confirming their role as the center of the index decline. NewsPim

HTS industry standard:

Electrical and Electronics -4.46%

which is significantly weaker than the market average.

Representative Trends

HLB's upper limit price and KOSDAQ relative strength were also confirmed in public data. NewsPim

⑦ ★ Fixed 12 Sectors Quant Score

8 ★ Top 15 Sectors of the Day & Key Stock Signals

Applied in the same format as last Wednesday.

Today, GS Construction's AI data center and nuclear power plant momentum was highlighted, and Hyundai Construction also saw positive reports related to nuclear power plants and data centers. NewsPim

🔥 New Leading Sector Judgment

Confirmation of a new leading sector is still pending.

However, looking at today alone:

The relative strength has clearly expanded from semiconductors to bio, construction, secondary batteries, and automobiles.

This was evident.

⑨ KOSPI / KOSPI200 Technical Structure

Today, KOSPI:

Started at 7,057.86 → Closed at 6,889.74

closed near the low price range. Public data also confirms a trend of widening losses after a weak start this morning. Yonhap News

Technical Significance

Therefore, the current situation is:

“Adjustment within a medium-term upward trend” to “a stage where we need to confirm whether the medium-term trend is damaged”

.

⑩ ★ Elliott/Neely + Wyckoff + Volume Profile + Current/Futures/OI/RS/Regime Comprehensive Analysis

⑩-1. Today's Structure Summary

While spot, futures, and programs clearly showed risk reduction, OI decreased, and KOSDAQ and non-semiconductor RS remained alive. Therefore, it is more reasonable to view the situation as “Large-cap Long liquidation + High volatility sector rotation” rather than “Full-scale downward trend entry”.

⑩-2. Elliott Wave

Priority Structure

Since the recent high:

A decline → B rebound → currently C or composite adjustment

is most likely.

Today's sharp drop centered on large-cap stocks while some sectors are holding up suggests a correction phase rather than an immediate collapse of the overall uptrend.

Confirmation of Strength Recovery

K200 Futures:

1,092 → 1,096 → 1,100

must recover in this order.

KOSPI:

6,950 → 7,000 → 7,080

in this order.

⑩-3. Neely Wave

From a Neely perspective, the speed of today's decline is important.

The decline speed was faster than the rise.

This is not good in the short term.

However, the adjustment time itself is still not long.

Therefore, for now:

“Trend End Confirmation” rather than “Rapid Price Adjustment Composite Adjustment”

is emphasized.

Ideal Stabilization Structure

Sharp Decline → Volatility Reduction → Time Adjustment → Low Point Test Success

is the ideal structure.

In other words, rather than an immediate V-shaped rebound:

stabilizing prices around 1,085~1,100 for several days

is healthier.

⑩-4. Wyckoff

The current question is:

Is it Re-accumulation or Distribution?

Current Judgment

Accumulation 45 : Distribution 55

The possibility of distribution should be increased compared to the previous trading day.

However, it is not yet a complete Distribution confirmation.

Distribution Confirmation Conditions

6,850~6,800 Breakaway + Continued Foreign Selling in Spot and Futures Markets + OI Increase

.

In this case, the interpretation should be raised to New Short Position Establishment rather than simply Long liquidation.

⑩-5. Trading Volume Concentration Zone (Volume Profile)

Today's K200 December contract is based on actual HTS.

★ POC

1,095.96~1,092.40 = 30.53%

Today's highest trading volume concentration range.

However, the closing price is 1,088.90, which is below the **POC**.

This is not good in the short term.

⑩-6. What Trading Volume Concentration Ranges Tell Us About Future Movements

🟢 Stabilization

1,092.5 Recovery

→ POC Entry

🟢 Confirmation of Strength

1,096 Recovery

→ POC Upper Recovery

🟢 Trend Restoration

1,099~1,100 Breakthrough

→ Absorption of a Significant Portion of Today's Buying Orders

🔴 Extension of Weakness

1,088.9 Downward Departure

→ Potential for Finding a New Lower Price Range

⑩-7. Connecting Foreigner Spot ↔ Futures ↔ OI

Today's direction is clear.

Foreigners reduced both spot and futures positions.

However, the decrease in OI is not yet enough to interpret it as a pure new short attack.

⑩-8. New Sell vs. Buy Position Liquidation

Key

Price↓ + OI↓

indicates the traces of existing Long liquidation are strong.

On the next trading day:

Price↓ + OI↑ + Foreigner Futures Selling

If this happens, we should increase the weight of new Short establishment.

⑩-9. Sector Relative Strength (RS)

🟢 Group 1

Bio / Construction / Automobile / Secondary Battery

🟢 Group 2

Korea / Bangsan / Chemical

🟡 Atmosphere

Finance / Cosmetics / Telecommunications

🟠 Weakness

Power Equipment / Robots & Machinery

🔴 Very Weak

Semiconductors & AI

Breadth Interpretation

Today:

KOSPI Large-Cap Plunge ≠ Entire Market Collapse

.

This is the most important defensive argument.

⑩-10. Market Regime

Overall Regime

“High Volatility Risk Reduction + Sector Rotation (High-Volatility Rotation)”

.

It is not yet confirmed as a full-scale risk aversion (Risk-Off).

⑩-11. Comprehensive Scenario

Scenario A — Technical Rebound 40%

The most necessary combination is:

1,088 support
→ Decrease in foreign futures selling
→ OI decrease halt
→ 1,092 recovery
→ 1,096 breakthrough

.

This structure can be seen as a rebound from overselling after Long liquidation today.

Scenario B — Time Adjustment 35%

It is actually more realistic.

1,085~1,100

Staying within the range for several days:

• Semiconductor selling slowdown

• Non-semiconductor RS maintenance

• VKOSPI decline

• Exchange rate stabilization

If this appears, the possibility of forming a bottom increases.

Scenario C — Downward Expansion 25%

The following conditions are key.

**1,085 downward deviation

• Additional foreign selling of over 1 trillion won

• Foreign futures net selling

• OI increase

• Put OI increase**

In this case, it is necessary to greatly increase the possibility of building new short positions (Short Build) and Wyckoff distribution.

⑩-12. ★ ⑩ Final Judgment

Reaccumulation 45 : Distribution 55

Technical Rebound 40% / Time Adjustment 35% / Downward Expansion 25%

The most important thing right now is:

**"The fact that foreigners sold a lot" rather than how OI will change on the next trading day.**

.

Today, since OI decreased, it is still difficult to confirm a surge in new downward bets.

⑪ Key Support·Resistance for the Next Trading Day

KOSPI

K200 Futures

⑫ ★ Most Important Risks to Watch For

Today's public closing data also cites US interest rates and the plunge of semiconductor large-cap stocks as key burdens. NewsPim

⑬ ★ Final Market Dashboard

⑭ ★ Today's Key Conclusion

Today's market is definitely a day with increased warning levels.

Foreigners net sold KOSPI spot by about 3.61 trillion won, KOSPI200 futures by about 596.2 billion won, and programs by about 2.04 trillion won. KOSPI200 fell by -3.27%, and large-cap semiconductor stocks plummeted around 5%. Public closing data also cites foreign and institutional selling together with the plunge of Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix as the core reasons for the index decline. NewsPim

However, I do not yet see today as “confirmation of a mid-term downtrend”.

There are three reasons for this.

① Although the futures price fell by -3.44%, OI decreased by -953, not +.
② KOSDAQ rose by +0.25%.
③ Non-semiconductor RSs such as bio, construction, automobiles, and secondary batteries are alive.

Therefore, I judge that the decline today is due to a larger proportion of existing long liquidation and portfolio risk reduction than new short positions.

★ Most Important Order for the Next Trading Day

1. Whether K200 futures will maintain 1,088.9
2. Whether it will re-enter the POC of 1,092~1,093
3. Reduction in foreign futures selling
4. OI direction
5. Scale of foreign spot selling
6. Recovery of semiconductor RS
7. Continuation of non-semiconductor circulation trading

Especially:

Futures rise + Foreign futures net buying conversion + OI increase

If all three appear simultaneously, the reliability of bottom confirmation will increase rapidly.

Conversely:

Breakthrough of 1,085 + Price decline + OI increase + Foreign spot and futures selling together

If this appears, it will be different from today.

At that time, I will strengthen my judgment towards new short position building (Short Build) + Wyckoff distribution (Distribution) + Elliott downtrend expansion.

★ Final Judgment

Market Quant 39 / Macro Quant 35

Reaccumulation 45 : Distribution 55

Technical rebound 40% · Time adjustment 35% · Downtrend expansion 25%

Regime = High volatility risk reduction + Non-semiconductor circulation trading

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