https://www.hankyung.com/article/202609266118i
The US consumer sentiment index in September is trending downward.
Normally, when consumption dies down, price increases should also slow down or stagnate. However, the current situation is due to rising food and energy prices, so the expected inflation index is also rising. As mentioned in the article, there is also a tendency for pre-consumption in anticipation of further price increases for some consumer goods.
Personally, I think that the Trump administration is trying to create an exit by withdrawing from direct intervention in prices and government bond interest rates, even during the midterm elections, and focusing on armistice negotiations with Iran and trade negotiations with China. However, we also know that this is something that Trump alone cannot push through.
To mitigate these phenomena, negotiations between the US/Iran and Russia/Ukraine are essential, as well as tariff reductions and easing of trade wars. However, since none of these solutions will be apparent in the short term, investors should pay attention to the establishment of relations between the US and China, and the Federal Reserve's future interest rate policy, while observing changes in sectors other than semiconductors - especially consumer goods.
