I have to do this on mobile.
It would be good if we could discuss each other's views and debate. That way, we can reach a better conclusion.
Nasdaq futures, along with other US benchmarks, periodically experience these "puffy" trading volume reversals. Usually, this happens before the market opens or closes. The left blue line marks the point where the Nasdaq futures reversed their sharp decline, and the right blue line shows evidence of long bets that halted the initial drop on Friday morning.
Let's look at this:
All bad news has poured in and is pouring in, yet the Nasdaq is showing a surprisingly shallow correction with strong resilience.
There are two people: Draken Miller and Scott Rubner. Miller came to Korea. This guy is a relentless short seller. Scott works for Citadel (one of the two major pillars of Citadel Securities, a hedge fund and non-hedge fund analysis firm).
Miller: He aggressively pushes shorts in both the stock and bond markets. According to reports, Miller is spreading rumors that "Wall Street institutions are all worried about the AI semiconductor sector." The problem is that while shorting both the stock and bond markets seems like a "bet," it's unclear what the central axis is. It's almost comical that he suddenly came to Korea and met with Samsung.
Rubner: Unfortunately, he works for Citadel Securities. Operational capital is different from hedging, but it still represents the perspective of a giant Wall Street capital like Citadel. He argues that interest rate hikes are a mistake. While a temporary adjustment is possible, he believes that the stock market will be strong after October. Is this a divergence between two hedge funds, or is it a clash between the typical Wall Street perspective and hedging within Citadel?
Almost all bad news has been exposed, yet Nasdaq futures are holding up. Interestingly, this is a leading market trend. Consumer goods, on the other hand, are experiencing temporary weakness, which is a direct negative effect of interest rate hikes.
In essence, it's an AI and infrastructure-driven market. Will Micron's earnings release on the 29th be a turning point? Or will Samsung's forecast release in early October be the catalyst?
The important thing is that Miller himself must know that one of his two positions is a fake. You can't eat both stocks and bonds. It's greed. And Miller wouldn't do that.
Conclusion: All bad news has been exposed, and it's hard to find any more lurking around. Does this mean we're entering a full-fledged bull market? That's unlikely.
We are currently in a confusing market environment. Early bearish sentiment is being fueled, and then longs will step in and push the market up in the middle of the trading session.
Oil and gold prices surge early and then plummet. This has been the pattern for the past two or three days.
The market is a mix of psychology, power dynamics, and fake news. Personally, I believe that the bond market short is genuine. This means that the AI sector among Nasdaq tech stocks will rise again. If I'm wrong, I'll accept it. It will come with some losses.
Will Samsung dividend funds be withdrawn? And if so, where will they go? This seems to be the key factor in determining the short-term trend of the Korean market.
I'm going long. After Samsung's earnings forecast release. Before that, I expect the Korean and Nasdaq futures markets to shake up a bit, maybe by one point.
