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Why are you doing this too~~~~ Seriously

🇰🇷 Korean Stock Market Closing Briefing on September 23, 2026 — HTS Final Data Revision

Reference Time: 2026-09-23 16:30~16:34 KST
This revision uses the September 23rd HTS final screen provided by you as the primary data source. Publicly released closing data was used only for cross-checking, and HTS figures from previous dates were not used.

The most important change in today's new HTS data is that we were able to confirm KOSPI200 futures·open interest (OI)·basis·program·options, which were not previously available in the briefing.

★ Today's Key Structure

KOSPI +0.90% / K200 +1.15% / Futures +1.42% / Foreigners Spot -5,196~-5,624 billion won / Foreigners Futures +387.6 billion won / OI +2,073 contracts / Basis +1.63p / Program Arbitrage -1.135 trillion won / Foreigners Call·Put Simultaneous Net Selling

Therefore, today is neither simply “foreigner risk aversion” nor simply “foreigner new buying position establishment (Long Build).”

They sold in the spot market but actively bought futures, and prices and OI rose together. In particular, futures and OI surged simultaneously in the latter half of the session. As a result, the structure appears to have clearly strengthened compared to the previous day if we only look at the derivatives market, but the large program arbitrage selling is an offsetting factor.

① Today's Market at a Glance

★ More Important Revision Than the Previous Briefing

Futures were not weak.

It closed at 1,127.75, the highest price of the day, and its rise was higher than that of KOSPI200 spot.

Therefore, today is precisely:

Spot index strong then weak + futures strong in the latter half + OI increase

This is a somewhat unusual structure.

② ★ Market Quant Score

Market Quant Score: 68 / 100 → Upside, but weak internal structure of spot

Macro Quant Score: 64 / 100

미국 나스닥의 연속 사상 최고치와 미국 반도체주 강세가 국내 반도체를 지원했고, 중동 긴장 완화 기대와 유가 하락도 긍정적이었습니다. 반면 원/달러가 HTS 기준 1,365.10원까지 재상승한 것은 외국인 현물에는 부담입니다. 연합뉴스

③ 외국인·기관 현물 수급

HTS 화면에서도 집계 화면별 차이가 있습니다. 16:34 시장종합 최종 화면을 우선하면:

선물·옵션 미니종합 화면은 현물 기준 개인 -14,329억, 외국인 -5,196억, 기관 +3,191억으로 표시됩니다.

따라서 화면별 집계 범위/시점 차이가 존재하며 방향성은 동일합니다.

장중 변화가 매우 중요합니다

사용자가 제공한 5분 수급표를 보면 15:30에는:

• 개인 -1,819억

• 외국인 +1,748억

• 기관 +62억

이라는 강한 외국인 매수가 들어왔습니다.

이후 15:40 외국인 +100억 → 15:50 -22억 → 16:00 -51억 → 16:30 +17억 수준으로 급격히 정상화됐습니다.

즉 종가 부근에 일시적인 대규모 매수 체결/리밸런싱성 흐름이 발생했습니다.

④ ★ KOSPI200 선물 + OI + 베이시스 + 프로그램

오늘 분석에서 가장 중요한 부분입니다.

선물 최종

Investor Futures

★ Spot ↔ Futures Divergence

Foreigner:

Spot -5,196~-5,624 Billion
Futures +3,876 Billion

.

This is a significant present-future divergence (Divergence).

Program Trading

HTS KOSPI200 Daily Program Screen:

Therefore, it is important to understand the nature of foreigners' spot selling today.

Arbitrage profit is 29.1 billion won, but non-arbitrage is -1.135 trillion won.

In other words, rather than mechanical arbitrage selling due to deterioration of futures basis, the nature of non-arbitrage basket selling/rebalancing is much stronger.

⑤ ★ Options Market

HTS Value Basis:

Foreigner Options

Foreigners:

Call -5.3 billion + Put -4 billion

sold premiums on both sides.

Simply looking at the direction, Call selling is an upper limit and Put selling is a lower limit.

Therefore, the combination is:

Foreigner Futures Long + Option Selling on Both Sides

closer to.

This is more consistent with a position expecting an increase/sideways movement within a certain range, rather than betting on a crash.

Key Events

October Call 1050

Call price increase + OI decrease.

There is a possibility that some existing Call positions were liquidated.

October Put 1090

This combination is interesting.

Put price↓ + Put OI↑

It is relatively likely that new Put selling was included.

In other words, the price of downside insurance fell while contracts increased.

PCR

The PCR based on total option trading volume/total OI cannot be accurately calculated from the provided screen alone. Therefore, it will remain as data unconfirmed.

⑥ Semiconductors and Major Leading Stocks

Public closing data also confirms Samsung Electronics 285,000 won (+3.07%) and SK Hynix 1,856,000 won (+0.87%). Maeil Business Newspaper

Key Points

Today, semiconductors did not simply follow the index but showed very strong relative strength (RS) compared to the market.

On the other hand, machinery, construction, and automobiles were weak.

⑦ ★ Fixed 12 Sectors Quant Score

Looking at the HTS industry sector, medical precision +3.36%, electrical and electronics +1.95%, chemicals +1.28% were strong, while construction -5.66%, machinery -3.22%, IT services -2.40%, transportation equipment parts -2.35%, electricity and gas -1.73%. The same industry direction is confirmed in public data. Asia Economy

8 ★ Top 15 Sectors of the Day & Key Stock Signals

We will maintain the existing agreed format.

※ The ranking of mid-to-high level sub-themes is a quantitative and qualitative evaluation combining HTS industry indices and representative stock relative strength. Today, the most definite leading axis is semiconductors and medical precision, and the most clear weak axis is construction·machinery·transportation equipment.

New Leading Sector Judgment

There is no new leading sector confirmation yet.

Instead:

🔥 Reinforcement of existing semiconductor·AI leadership

is today's core.

⑨ KOSPI / KOSPI200 Technical Structure

KOSPI:

7,153.99 start → drop to around 7,014.98 → recovery to 7,080.92

. The public closing data also explains that it fell to 7,014.98 during the day and recovered due to institutional buying and a reduction in foreign selling. ShinAilbo

Technical Structure

The important thing is that the futures market closed in a much better form than the spot market.

Futures closed at a daily high of 1,127.75.

⑩ ★ Elliott/Neely + Wyckoff + Volume Profile + Spot/Futures/OI/RS/Regime Comprehensive Analysis

⑩-1. Today's Structure Summary

While the spot market showed weakness after strength, K200 futures closed at a high price and OI increased by +2,073 contracts. Therefore, while Breadth alone in the spot market may indicate a dispersed boundary, combining with the derivative market increases the possibility of 'reaccumulation/position reconstruction within an uptrend' compared to yesterday.

⑩-2. Elliott Wave

The most natural priority count currently is:

Upward 5 wave in progress or 5 wave extension

.

Confirmation Conditions for Rise

KOSPI:

7,154 → 7,171 breakthrough

K200 futures:

1,128 → 1,131 → 1,136

.

First Warning

K200 futures 1,120 deviation

Wave Invalidation Reinforcement

1,115 deviation + OI increase + Foreigner futures net selling conversion

.

⑩-3. Neely Wave

From a Neely perspective, it is necessary to separate spot and futures.

Recently, the spot market has repeatedly created gap rise → return of rise .

However, futures ended today afternoon with:

Price↑ + OI↑

.

This is more consistent with:

Time Correction within the structure of rebuilding derivative positions

rather than simply price adjustment.

Ideal Bullish Structure

1,120~1,128 time consumption → OI maintenance → 1,128 breakthrough

.

⑩-4. Wyckoff

The current core is still:

Re-accumulation vs Distribution

.

★ Revision Judgment

Reaccumulation 60 : Distribution 40

This increases the possibility of reaccumulation compared to 52:48 in the previous briefing.

The reason is that the final futures/OI data has been newly confirmed.

⑩-5. ★ Volume Profile Concentration Zone

Since HTS now has actual trading volume for each price range, it can be reflected accurately.

★ 거래량 중심가격(POC)

가장 큰 거래 집중은:

1,120.90~1,123.38 = 20.99%

입니다.

그런데 종가는:

1,127.75

입니다.

즉 시장이 최대 거래 집중구간 위로 올라와 상단에서 마감했습니다.

이것은 분명히 긍정적입니다.

⑩-6. Volume Profile이 말하는 다음 움직임

🟢 강세

1,125.8 이상 유지

→ 오늘의 거래가치영역 상단 유지
→ 1,128.3 돌파
→ 1,131
→ 1,133~1,136

🟡 중립

1,123~1,128

→ 가치영역 내부 재균형

🔴 약세

1,120.9 이탈

→ POC 아래 이동
→ 1,118
→ 1,115.9

Therefore, the core of the derivatives market on the next trading day is 1,123.

⑩-7. ★ Foreigner Spot ↔ Futures ↔ OI Connection

This combination is the key to today's market.

⑩-8. New Buying vs. Selling Position Liquidation

OI is the total market OI, so it does not directly show new positions by foreigners only.

Assuming that point, a probabilistic interpretation would be:

★ Especially since Price↑ + OI↑ + Foreigner Futures Buying, it is difficult to explain with just selling position liquidation.

Someone actually established a significant new position.

While it is not possible to definitively say that foreigners are the entirety of the new Longs, the directionality of +3,876 billion won in foreign buying serves as a basis for interpreting the strong side.

⑩-9. Sector Relative Strength (RS)

🔥 Tier 1

Semiconductor·AI / Semiconductor Equipment

🟢 Tier 2

Medical Precision / Bio / Some Secondary Batteries

🟡 Neutral

Finance / Securities / Cosmetics

🟠 Relatively Weak

Shipbuilding / Defense / Internet

🔴 Strong Relative Weakness

Automobile / Machinery·Robot / Construction·Nuclear Power

The problem still remains:

Tier 1 is leading the entire market in a Narrow Leadership.

This is the case.

⑩-10. Market Regime

Overall Regime

“Narrow Uptrend (Narrow Risk-On) + Derivative Strength Confirmation + Spot Arbitrage Selling”

.

⑩-11. ★ Comprehensive Scenario

Scenario A — Extension 52%

The most ideal form is:

1,125~1,123 Support
→ OI Maintenance
→ Continued Foreign Futures Net Buying
→ Breakthrough of 1,128
→ 1,131
→ 1,136

.

KOSPI:

7,154 → 7,171 → 7,220

.

Scenario B — Time Adjustment 33%

It's not necessarily bad for the market.

1,120~1,128 where futures consolidate,

and as long as semiconductors don't collapse significantly:

Finance·Bio·Power Equipment·Shipbuilding·Automobile

If relative strength spreads to sectors such as these, we see it as a healthy reaccumulation.

Scenario C — ABC Adjustment 15%

The following combination immediately raises the alert level:

**Breakthrough of 1,120**

• Continued Foreign Stock Selling

• Switch to Net Foreign Futures Selling

• Additional OI Increase

• Put Price/OI Concomitant Rise**

In this case, since price↓ + OI↑, the possibility of establishing a new short position (New Short) increases.

⑩-12. ★ ⑩ Final Judgment

Reaccumulation 60 : Diversification 40

Extension 52% / Time Adjustment 33% / ABC Adjustment 15%

Including the latest HTS data today, the judgment of the derivatives market is significantly improved compared to the previous briefing.

The most important reasons are:

① Futures +1.42%, High Close
② OI +2,073
③ Foreign Futures +387.6 Billion Won

.

However, it is not strong enough to be called strong overall risk appetite (Risk-On) because:

Foreign Stock -5 Trillion Won Range
Square-Off -1.135 Trillion Won
Won/Dollar 1,365 Won
Narrow Breadth**

It is going.

⑫ ★ Next Trading Day Key Support & Resistance

KOSPI

K200 Futures

⑫ Most Important Risks to Watch For

It was also pointed out in public market data that major events such as the US-China summit during the Chuseok holiday and subsequent US PCE and Micron earnings are expected to be key volatility factors. newsis

⑬ ★ Final Market Dashboard

⑭ ★ Today's Key Conclusion

Including new HTS data, today's market has a significantly better derivative structure than when analyzed with only previously released data.

The most important combination is:

Futures Price↑ + OI↑ + Foreigner Futures +3,876 billion + Basis +1.63

.

This suggests that new position building occurred that is difficult to explain solely by short covering (Short Covering) in the derivatives market at least.

Moreover, futures closed at 1,127.75, the highest price of the day, and OI increased sharply from 134,339 → 134,791 in the late trading session.

This part is quite strong.

On the other hand, in the spot market:

Foreigner -5 trillion won range + Programmatic Arbitrage -1.135 trillion + USD/KRW 1,365 won + Narrow market range

appeared.

Therefore, summarizing the entire market in one sentence:

“While profit-taking and rebalancing pressure was strong in the spot market, the derivatives market saw a strengthening of positions in the upward direction.”

Especially because foreigner spot selling and futures buying are in opposite directions, it is difficult to interpret that foreigners strongly view the Korean market as bearish. It is necessary to consider the possibility that they reduced their foreign equity basket while maintaining market beta through futures, or reducing existing hedges and expanding futures exposure.

★ Top Check for the Next Trading Day

K200 Futures 1,123~1,125 defense → Continued net buying of foreigner futures → OI maintenance/increase → Breakthrough of 1,128 is key.

If these four occur simultaneously:

1,131 → 1,136 → 1,141

The possibility of extending the upward trend for five waves will increase.

Conversely:

Breaking below 1,120 + Switching to net selling by foreigners + OI increase

If this appears, the nature of the increased OI today should be considered changed and the possibility of new short position building (New Short) should be significantly increased.

Final Judgment

🟢 Market Quant: 68 / 100

🟢🟡 Macro Quant: 64 / 100

Re-accumulation 60 : Distribution 40

Upward Extension 52% · Time Adjustment 33% · ABC Adjustment 15%

★ The most important data today is not KOSPI +0.90% itself but Foreigner Futures +3,876 billion + OI +2,073 + Futures closing at a high price. However, since Programmatic Arbitrage -1.135 trillion exists simultaneously, it is necessary to confirm whether spot foreign buying joins the next trading day to further increase the upward trend confidence.

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• 네 감사합니다. 제가 발리 종합병원까지 왔는데도 없네요. 세상에 발리 사람들은 이 병에 안걸리나 봅니다 ;;

• 보통 발리... 하루면 갑니다. 쪽지로... 연락처와 주소 알려주시면 택배로 보내드릴께요. 우선 오늘 약국부터 가보겠습니다. 부디 인도네시아에 대한 추억이 아픈 일 때문에 안 좋게 남지 않으시길... ^^

• 안녕하세요. 관심 가져 주셔서 감사합니다. 이유는 모르겠지만 발리에는 그 제품을 찾기가 쉽지 않네요. 병원 옆 약국에도 없었습니다. Gpt 저도 돌려 봤는데 없다고 하니 또 말이 바뀌더군요 ;; 자카르타 에서 발리까지 택배가 몇일 걸릴까요? ㅜㅜ 김 여정으로 발리에 오신분들의 선례가 될것 같습니다. 도움감사 드립니다. 꾸벅 _._

• GPT로 찾아보니 흔하게 구하실 수 있다고 하는데요... 혹시 발리에서 못찾으시면 다시 댓글 남겨주세요. 자카르타 뽄독인다 병원 앞 약국에서 구매해서 보내드리든지 하겠습니다. Canesten Ear Drops - Bayer Klotrimazol Ear Drop - Kimia Farma / Bernofarm 등 Clotrin Ear Drop - Generik 브랜드 Clotrimazole Drop Generic - Apotek (약국 브랜드) 위의 4종류가 인도네시아에서 일반적으로 사용되는 Clotrimazole 1%의 동일 성분의 약이라고 하네요. 인도네시아에서는 “Klotrimazol Ear Drop” 혹은 “Canesten Ear Drop”이라는 이름으로 쉽게 구할 수 있다고 나와 있습니다.

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