In July and August, when the market was down, I did a lot of analysis, but
now that we're in a sideways range like this, trapped in a channel, I don't see anything else to analyze.
As I watch the lows rise every day, I think that if an opportunity arises, it might go up.
Some people say you should increase your cash position from 7500, while others say you should buy back the 9000 belt. My opinion is that if the sideways movement continues between 7200 and 7500, it wouldn't be a bad idea to increase the cash position at 7500.
There are so many sellers between 7800 and 8500 that it's not easy to go up, but seeing foreigners buying futures these days makes me think they might buy a lot macroeconomically and push it up to around 8000.
I thought interest rates wouldn't rise recently, but I was pleasantly wrong. All the data pointed to an interest rate hike. haha
As one expert said,
"The market is more concerned about the loss of trust in the government and the Fed than the tightening."
Even though inflation showed clear signs, the current US government is losing market confidence by trying to create more liquidity instead of building trust. This analysis suggests that the market was shaken because of this.
Of course, if interest rates are raised 2~3 more times, concerns about tightening will begin, but for now, it seems that market confidence comes first.
The current market is characterized by semiconductor sectors rising above the 60-day line and US stocks rising above the 20-day line, drawing an upward curve to some extent. While Nasdaq's spread has increased somewhat, it's important to watch the flow slowly and consider partial profit-taking for some sectors. However, I believe that many people will not be able to take partial profits due to exchange losses.
Although I don't look into details as before, I only watch the big picture,
I suddenly feel like the market is trying to find an excuse to rise again, ignoring all the bad news.
Iran is facing economic difficulties due to a maritime blockade and is negotiating with the US. It's said that transportation costs will increase 4~5 times if they switch to land transportation instead of sea transportation, and there are even reports of goods lined up at border crossings that cannot enter. Most of them are rotting food, so it seems that Iran is quite isolated.
Europe seems to be heading towards an arms race due to the US's withdrawal from NATO,
and while a consensus between the US and China may be reached again, there could be some disadvantages for our country. However, this part is not reflected at all yet. Of course, I don't think it will be easy to reach an agreement, but usually when the market is bad, it tends to be used as good material for a decline.
There are also rumors that CXMT's 8th generation module yield has increased by 50% with quadruple patterning,
and that Samsung is outsourcing all DRAM and going all-in on HBM.
Of course, numbers don't tell the whole story. In September, semiconductor exports were high enough to create a favorable market situation for now.
September was originally expected to decline, but it is unexpectedly in a sideways range,
and with the Democratic Party's landslide victory expected in October and the release of third-quarter earnings, there is a feeling that the market will rise again.
Sometimes, after a sideways movement, the market suddenly surges. If it happens like April or May, there will be a sharp rise. On the other hand, some bad news could lead to a crash like in 2021.
Looking at the news flowing into the market now, it seems that predicting the future direction of semiconductors is not yet unreasonable. Although CXMT's misfortunes are piling up, my personal prediction is that they will be visualized in the first or second quarter earnings report next year. In the third and fourth quarters, the remarkable achievements of the three semiconductor giants will lead everyone to believe that semiconductors will last forever.
This is a direction that most of the market is predicting, and if there is no surprise in the earnings report, stock prices could fall significantly immediately after the announcement.
Of course, another war could cause the market to decline, but as long as liquidity doesn't dry up, it seems that all directions are drawing an upward curve. Now is the time to start planning when and how to adjust my cash position.
