After the FOMC, Nasdaq surged for two consecutive days. It appears concerning enough to worry about overheating. There is no way to know whether this is overheating or a rebound due to relief from a pullback. However, based on the U.S. market's derivative algorithms, there is room to predict that a pullback adjustment will occur within 2-3 business days.
Please refer to the file. Today I included a lot of subjective interpretation at the end. It is just my opinion, so please use it only as reference, but you can also ignore it.
I am confident that Wall Street still does not apply new valuations to the memory sector within the semiconductor sector. Despite the rate increase, the rebound is a market-wide rebound in response to "uncertainty resolution," not a trend increase, so I agree with the view that we need to wait a bit longer until October for a trend rise (refer to Scott Rubner's opinion in the file).
Summary
1. Both Samsung Electronics/KOSPI are within the trend.
2. Nasdaq futures show signs of overheating for 2 days. I believe a pullback adjustment will definitely come within 2-3 business days.
3. In September, due to an increase in puts during the remaining period (based on Nasdaq), the possibility of short-term adjustment remains.
4. Looking at market psychology, Samsung Electronics is at a turning point between breaking through the pullback or being pushed back. It is necessary to consider the possibility of being pushed back once, which is viewed as the period until around the early-October earnings forecast timing after the ex-dividend date.
5. The inflow traces of long-only funds due to Samsung Electronics' shareholder return are very weak. This is a structural risk factor.
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1lz61TbmBL7eJk8gegmUKw_mHzlAZUeaN/edit?usp=sharing&ouid=114517361703957635844&rtpof=true&sd=true
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Tools Used OPUS 5.0 Data Analysis and Graphing
Data: Mirae Asset HTS Extraction
Interpretation: Strong subjective interpretation applied based on personal thoughts. (Especially today)
I hope you always become a profitable investor.
If the structural hedge inverse ETF comes down to around 60 won, I recommend purchasing 1-2% of your minimum investment amount.
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