🇺🇸🇰🇷 US-Korea Stock Market Weekly Briefing

Reference: Saturday, September 19, 2026, 08:00 KST
Korea: Closing price on September 18 / USA: Closing price on September 18

★ Key Market Outlook This Week

This week, the macro environment has become one step more challenging compared to last week. The Federal Reserve (Fed) raised the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.75~4.00% on September 16th and projected an end-of-year policy rate of 4.00~4.25%, suggesting further increases. The US 10-year Treasury yield actually exceeded 5% this week, reaching its highest level since 2007. Reuters

However, the Korean market showed a very interesting reaction on Friday. KOSPI rose by +2.66% to 6,894.23, with Samsung Electronics +3.37%, SK Hynix +6.42%, SK Square +7.04%, and Samsung Electro-Mechanics +4.36%. Semiconductors and AI led the market rebound, and foreign investors returned to net buying for the first time in eight trading days. The Korea Times

Therefore, the key structure of this week's market is:

High interest rates·high oil prices·Fed tightening 🔴 vs AI·semiconductor momentum 🟢

.

My model's Korea Market Quant decreased from 67 to 64 last week, and the Cross-Asset Score decreased from 47 to 43. However, the semiconductor·AI Quant increased from 86 to 88.

1. 🇰🇷 Weekly Analysis of the Korean Stock Market

Last week's KOSPI closing price was 6,909.91, and this Friday's closing price is 6,894.23. Therefore, the weekly change is approximately -0.23%. It is important to note that despite a +2.66% surge on Friday, the market is almost back to where it started for the week. The Korea Times

※ Since the KOSPI200's weekly high, low, and closing prices for this week, as well as the KOSPI/KOSDAQ's overall weekly highs and lows, have not been sufficiently cross-checked based on the same official data, I will refrain from inserting any numbers.

2. Important Changes in Friday's Supply and Demand

KOSPI on September 18th:

Foreigners returned to net buying on the KOSPI for the first time since September 8th. The Korea Times

Importantly, this wasn't just in the cash market. According to available market compilations, foreigners' net buying of KOSPI200 futures on Friday was approximately +1.53 trillion won, while institutions were approximately -1.33 trillion won. KOSPI trading volume was approximately 25.56 trillion won. Snowshagal

In short, Friday was:

Foreigners cash +
Foreigners futures +
Institutions cash +
Semiconductors +

.

This is a higher quality rebound signal than just simple short covering (short covering).

However, since I haven't been able to confirm whether OI (open interest) has also increased, I won't definitively say it was a new long position build.

3. Programs, Options, OI

Therefore, the most important derivative confirmation next week is whether foreigners will continue to buy spot + futures on Friday and increase OI.

4. What Changed → Why It's Important → Next Week Confirmation

The Fed not only raised rates this time but also predicted a policy interest rate of 4.00~4.25% by the end of the year. The interest rate futures market reflects a probability of about 90% for an additional 25bp hike within the year. Reuters

5. 🇰🇷 Korea Market Quant

This week's weighting will be maintained as before.

Trend 20% + Momentum 15% + Foreigners & Institutions Supply and Demand 15% + Market Volatility 10% + Sector RS 10% + Earnings & News 10% + Macro 10% + Cross-Asset 5% + Volatility 5%

Korea Market Quant = 64 / 100

B- / Fundamentals Strong·Macro Risks

Last week 67 → 64.

★ The important point here is that the score dropped not because of a decline in Korean company fundamentals, but due to interest rates, oil prices, and exchange rates.

6. 🇰🇷 Sector Quant Ranking

7. ★ Semiconductor·AI — Quant 88

On Friday, Samsung Electronics +3.37%, SK Hynix +6.42%, SK Square +7.04%, and Samsung Electro-Mechanics +4.36%.

On Friday, the semiconductor rally also lifted Nasdaq and S&P 500.

However, a new risk factor emerged this week.

US AI company executives raised safety concerns about the speed of AI development, leading to a sharp decline in global AI-related stocks, including NVIDIA on Monday. The US 10-year Treasury yield breaking 5% at the time also amplified the decline.

Meanwhile, on the supply chain side, SK Hynix is in discussions with Intel about a collaboration for memory production in the US, and Solidigm is also considering the possibility of a US NAND plant. This has both advantages in terms of tariff risk response and disadvantages in terms of increased US capital expenditures.

Semiconductor Judgment

Demand 🟢🟢
Earnings 🟢🟢
Korea Supply & Demand 🟢
US Semiconductor 🟢
AI Safety Debate 🟠
US10Y 🔴🔴
US Production·Tariff Pressure 🟠

Therefore, it is Long-term bullish / Short-term high volatility.

8. ⚡ Power Equipment

The structural logic of power demand for AI data centers and semiconductor clusters remains the same.

However, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix rejected Korea Electric Power Corporation's proposal for a KRW 25 trillion advance payment for the power grid. This means that the need for power grid investment has not disappeared, but rather that who will bear the investment cost has become a policy issue.

Therefore, power equipment is:

Demand ★★★★★
Policy ★★★★
Earnings ★★★★
Interest Rates ★★
Valuation ★★★

Quant 77

.

9. 🇺🇸 US Stock Market

Friday's closing prices are as follows.

On Friday, tech stocks were the strongest and utilities were the weakest. However, market breadth was not good. The S&P500 had 5 new highs and 30 new lows, while the Nasdaq had 45 new highs and 162 new lows. Reuters

In short:

Indices are holding up, but internal breadth is weak.

This is the biggest weakness in the US market right now.

US Market Quant

58 / 100

Last week 61 → 58

10. Fed — This Week's Biggest Macro Event

The Fed raised the benchmark interest rate on September 16th:

3.50~3.75% → 3.75~4.00%

by 25bp.

The Fed's new outlook is 4.00~4.25% by the end of 2026 and also 4.00~4.25% by the end of 2027. In other words, it has presented at least one more rate hike as its baseline scenario. Reuters

Stock Market Surprise Score

-35 / 100

The hike itself was expected, but the fact that the additional tightening path may last longer than anticipated is negative.

11. 🇺🇸 US Treasuries — 5% Risk Line Actually Broken

Last week, I highlighted the key risk line:

US10Y = 5.0%

This actually broke this week.

The US 10-year yield exceeded 5% during the week and reached its highest level since 2007. On Friday, it was around 5.00% according to a Reuters compilation. Reuters

Friday's separate market tally showed:

• 2Y around 4.72~4.74%

• 10Y around 4.97~5.00%

It was. Barron's

Therefore, the risk line is now replaced in three steps.

12. 💱 Exchange Rate

On Friday, the won/dollar closed at 1,383.3 won. The Korea Times

Compared to the previous week's 1,340 won range, the won has weakened considerably.

The global dollar index (DXY) was around 100.19, the dollar/yen was 156.76, and the euro/dollar was 1.1488. Reuters

Won/Dollar Risk Line

**<1,380 🟢
1,380~1,400 🟡
1,400~1,430 🟠

1,430 🔴**

We are currently back in the 🟡 caution zone.

13. 🇯🇵 BOJ — Yen Carry Trade Variable

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) raised its benchmark interest rate to 1.25%, the highest level in 31 years. However, with two board members opposing the hike, the yen actually weakened. Reuters

Therefore, the immediate risk of yen carry unwinding has decreased slightly, but:

Fed tightening + BOJ tightening

The global liquidity contraction trend remains unchanged.

14. 🛢 Energy — Still the Biggest Tail Risk

On Friday:

Oil prices fell on Friday as China requested that Iran restrain the Houthis from attacking Saudi oil facilities. However, the Strait of Hormuz remains largely blocked, with only 4 tankers passing through on Thursday. Reuters

In essence, oil prices have not fallen but rather stabilized above $100.

Brent Risk

**<$95 🟢
$95~100 🟠
$100~110 🔴

$110 🔴🔴**

Currently 🔴.

15. 🥇 Gold·Silver·Copper

Gold rose to $4,390.11/oz, +1.2% on Friday, marking its first weekly gain in four weeks. Silver also rose by approximately $66.70, +2.3%. Reuters

The fact that gold is holding up even with Fed rate hikes suggests that geopolitical and inflation hedging demand is quite strong.

16. 🌽 Grains

Unable to reliably cross-reference the weekly closing prices and weekly percentage changes for corn, wheat, and soybeans as of September 18th using a single trusted benchmark.

Therefore, arbitrary figures will not be inserted again this time.

However, current agricultural products may face new cost pressures through transportation and production costs due to record US diesel prices. According to Reuters, the average retail diesel price in the United States is about $6.45/gal, an all-time high. Reuters

17. ₿ Bitcoin / Ethereum

We were unable to secure the confirmed weekly closing prices and volatility rates of BTC and ETH at the same time on September 18th for this search as a reliable benchmark.

Therefore, we will not create numbers.

Currently, Crypto is less reliable as an indicator to confirm strong risk appetite (Risk-on) due to Fed additional tightening + long-term interest rates 5%.

18. ★ Cross-Asset Dashboard

Cross-Asset Quant = 43 / 100 🔴

Last week:

47 → 43

worsened further.

19. Macro Surprise Dashboard

Macro Surprise Score = -27 / 100

This is a slight deterioration from last week's -22.

20. US → Korea Transmission Channel

This channel is currently the most important for the Korean market.

Positive Channel

US SOX↑
→ NVIDIA/Memory↑
→ Samsung Electronics/SK Hynix↑
→ Foreign spot+futures buying↑
→ KOSPI↑

This channel actually worked on Friday.

Negative Channel

Fed tightening
→ US10Y >5%
→ DXY↑
→ USD/KRW↑
→ Foreign valuation burden
→ Semiconductor profit-taking
→ KOSPI↓

The two channels are now colliding head-on.

21. Elliott Wave — KOSPI

Last week:

Uptrend 43% / B-X complex correction 42% / Downtrend 15%

This is what it was.

This week, we revise it.

Primary Scenario = B/X 46%

The reason is simple.

We still haven't broken through 7,216.

If it's an uptrend wave 3, as time goes on:

• Decrease in correction range

• Increase in trading volume

• Continued foreign buying

• Breaking previous highs

should appear.

Currently, too many overlappings are occurring between 6,400~7,200.

22. Elliott Uptrend Scenario 39%

The possible structure is still:

5,593 → 7,216 = Wave 1
7,216 → 6,408 = Wave 2
6,408 → Current = Early Wave 3

is.

However, we strengthen the confirmation conditions.

Confirmation Conditions

Recovery to 7,000
→ Breakout above 7,216
→ Simultaneous buying from foreigners in spot and futures
→ US10Y <5%

At least 3 of these four conditions are needed.

Invalidation

Closing price breaks below 6,408

is.

23. NEoWave

From Glenn Neely's (NEoWave) perspective, we remain conservative this week as well.

Recent monowave is:

Price range too wide
Time is short
High frequency of overlapping

is.

Therefore, the possibility of a complex correction is higher than a typical impulse.

Best Uptrend Structure

6,700~7,000 Time Correction → Reduced Volatility → Breakout Above 7,216

It is.

This structure is much healthier than a surge.

24. Next Week's Biggest Events

Next week, the US-China summit, the UN General Assembly, and global PMI are key.

Chinese President Xi Jinping is scheduled to visit the United States for a meeting with Donald Trump. The market will be watching discussions on trade and tariffs, as well as the Iran war and energy supply issues. Reuters

Reuters also cites the Fed rate path, the Middle East, AI development speed debate, and the US-China summit as key factors for the US market next week. Reuters

25. Next Week's KOSPI Quant Scenario

Adjusting probabilities again to reflect Cross-Asset deterioration.

Basic Scenario

Box·Range Trading 45%

.

26. US Stock Market Next Week Scenario

The US sees a higher probability of decline than Korea.

This is because the valuation of US stocks is high, market volatility is weak, and interest rates are at 5%.

27. Next Week Technical / Macro Map

28. Risk Matrix

29. ★ Final Dashboard

There was one very important change this week.

The US 10-year 5% that I had set as the risk line until last week was actually broken. At the same time, the Fed raised interest rates to 3.75~4.00% and suggested additional hikes by the end of the year. Brent is still $104.87. Therefore, the global macro environment has clearly deteriorated compared to last week. Reuters

However, on Friday, KOSPI recorded +2.66%, SK Hynix +6.42%, Samsung Electronics +3.37%, and foreigners bought +438.8 billion won in cash, and KOSPI 200 futures also bought about +1.53 trillion won. The Korea Times

Therefore, the market should not be simply read as “interest rates are high, so stock prices will fall”.

The current accurate structure is:

Korean semiconductor EPS growth rate is still holding a high discount rate, but its safety margin continues to decrease.

.

Next week, it is important to check KOSPI itself before US10Y → Brent → USD/KRW → Foreigners' cash and futures → Samsung Electronics·SK Hynix.

Especially if the foreigner's cash + futures simultaneous buying continues for 2~3 trading days, US10Y falls below 5% again, and KOSPI breaks through 7,000 → 7,216, there will be grounds to raise the Elliott rise 3-wave scenario, which was lowered to 39% this week, to more than 50%.

On the other hand, if US10Y >5.1%, Brent >$110, USD/KRW >1,400, foreigner's cash and futures simultaneous selling occur simultaneously for three or more, there is a high possibility that the discount rate shock will begin to overwhelm EPS even if Korean corporate performance is good.

★ Therefore, the top priority observation target next week is not the stock price itself but 'whether foreigners continue to buy Korean semiconductors even in a 5% interest rate environment.' This is the most important signal for determining the current direction of KOSPI.

봄날은올거다

쪽지보내기

• 작성 글
• 작성 댓글

• NEW[민원실] 2026년 10월 09일(금) 휴무 안내

  1시간 전

• amd ai max 395로 qwen3.8-flash-next 사용해 보고 있슴미다

  9시간 전

• RTX Spark 는 어마어마하군요

  9시간 전

• opencode go 에 클로드 하이쿠5.5 들어왔네요.

  9시간 전

• AI 관련 최상위 도메인 급증….agent, .agi 등

  10시간 전

KR | ID | EN

• Home메인화면
• User회원가입
• Login로그인

• lock

로그인 후 더 많은 기능을 이용하세요!

  로그인

• 뉴스

  한국 핫 뉴스

  인도네시아 핫 뉴스

  기관 / 단체 소식

• 비즈니스

  구인

  구직

  통역/번역

  직접홍보

  부동산

• 커뮤니티

  자유게시판

  소모임

  크롱맵

  멘토링

  중고거래

  오프모임

• 정보안내

  공지사항

  업체 디렉토리

  정보공유

  광고제휴(광고문의)

• 골프장 예약
• 재능커넥트
• 업체 디렉토리

• IDR
• KOR

7.53 =0.00

2026.10.09 KEB 하나은행 고시회차 1026회

• 
• 

이전

다음

• 최신글
• 최신댓글

• ★☆ 한나 선생님의 무료 시범 강의 OPEN! ☆★

• 브로모 화산 & 텡게르 문화체험 1박 2일 투어, 일출부터 산마을의 삶까지

• ✍️ [무료 레벨테스트] SAT 시험, 틀릴 거면 여기서 틀리세요!

• 수라바야 여행 문화·역사 프라이빗 투어｜한국어 가이드와 만나는 영웅의 도시 핵심 시티투어

• 회사 다니면서 인도네시아 창업, 가능할까?

• 족자카르타 여행 보로부두르·프람바난 프라이빗 투어, 정상 입장권과 한국어 가이드로 만나는 고대 자바

• 칼리만탄 여행 탄중푸팅 국립공원 2박 3일 클로톡 보트 투어, 오랑우탄과 강 위에서 보내는 특별한 밤

• 인도네시아에서 NGO 봉사활동 해보고 싶다면!

• 자카르타 천개의섬 빠용섬 2박 3일, 리조트 휴양과 해양 액티비티를 한 번에

• ⭐⭐⭐한국 쇼핑몰 물품 모아서 인도네시아로! 합포장 EMS 배송 가능합니다!!!(한국배대지)⭐⭐⭐

• 2026 해외 원산지 동향 자문위원 모집 공고

• 📢 실력 반전의 기회! 10월 SAT, AP 대개강

• 🚨[월간 SAT MATH] 연습 땐 780, 실제 시험은 710? 시험 전 필요한 딱 하나의 모의고사!

• 현대차 딜러가 사기치는 것을 현대차는 컨트롤 못하는 상황이더군요. 인니 살면서 차를 4번 정도 바꿨는데 도요타 딜러에게는 당해보지 못한 일이라서 당혹스러울 따름입니다. 현대차의 대응이 참 아쉽더라구요.

• 이건 뭐... 그냥 구조적/체계적 사기 수준인데요?

• 답장이 늦어서 죄송합니다. 만나서 반갑습니다. 보내주신 연락처 저장 후 문자 드리도록 하겠습니다.

• ⚾️ 자카르타 캐논즈 야구단 ⚾️ 안녕하세요, 자카르타 캐논즈 야구단입니다. 매주 일요일 14:00~18:00, GBK 야구장(아시안게임 정식 구장) 에서 활동 중입니다. 저희는 IKBO(인도네시아 대한야구협회) 리그에 정식 등록된 팀으로 즐겁게 운동하며 땀 흘리는 사회인 야구팀입니다. 야구를 좋아하시는 분이라면 경험 여부 상관없이 누구나 환영합니다! 함께 뛰고, 웃고, 주말을 활기차게 보내실 분 연락주세요. 📞 감독: 0813-1699-0709 (카톡 ID: yjk8149) 📞 총무: 0811-1830-774(카톡 ID : koremb82)

• 어서오세요. ^^ JKT. CANNOS 팀에서 연락 드릴겁니다.

• 안녕하세요 올해 강원도 원주시에서 5월7일 취업차 입국해서 일을 하게된 변종훈입니다 나이는55세(쥐띠)이구요 동호회 경력은 9년정도 된거 같습니다 유투브를 검색하던중 인도네시아에도 사회인야구 동호회가 잇다는것을 알게되어 참여 해 보고자 이렇게 문의 드립니다 9년차이긴하지만 야구실력은...그럭저럭 하는편입니다..제가 입국하고 주말에 찾아뵙고 인사드려도 될런지요? 지금 현재 제휴대폰번호는 01051787352입니다 현지에가서 번호가 빠뀔 수도 잇어서 문자로 답장 주시면 감사하겟습니다

• 이름바꾸면... 똥이 된장되나...

• 시놀로지 자체 하드웨어는 스펙이 많이 떨어지기도 하죠....저는 1515+ 가지고 있는데 cpu 때문에 돌연사 이슈도 있었던 제품이에요 납땜해서 해결해야하는 어처구니 없는 제품이죠...

• 네 감사합니다. 제가 발리 종합병원까지 왔는데도 없네요. 세상에 발리 사람들은 이 병에 안걸리나 봅니다 ;;

• 보통 발리... 하루면 갑니다. 쪽지로... 연락처와 주소 알려주시면 택배로 보내드릴께요. 우선 오늘 약국부터 가보겠습니다. 부디 인도네시아에 대한 추억이 아픈 일 때문에 안 좋게 남지 않으시길... ^^

• 안녕하세요. 관심 가져 주셔서 감사합니다. 이유는 모르겠지만 발리에는 그 제품을 찾기가 쉽지 않네요. 병원 옆 약국에도 없었습니다. Gpt 저도 돌려 봤는데 없다고 하니 또 말이 바뀌더군요 ;; 자카르타 에서 발리까지 택배가 몇일 걸릴까요? ㅜㅜ 김 여정으로 발리에 오신분들의 선례가 될것 같습니다. 도움감사 드립니다. 꾸벅 _._

• GPT로 찾아보니 흔하게 구하실 수 있다고 하는데요... 혹시 발리에서 못찾으시면 다시 댓글 남겨주세요. 자카르타 뽄독인다 병원 앞 약국에서 구매해서 보내드리든지 하겠습니다. Canesten Ear Drops - Bayer Klotrimazol Ear Drop - Kimia Farma / Bernofarm 등 Clotrin Ear Drop - Generik 브랜드 Clotrimazole Drop Generic - Apotek (약국 브랜드) 위의 4종류가 인도네시아에서 일반적으로 사용되는 Clotrimazole 1%의 동일 성분의 약이라고 하네요. 인도네시아에서는 “Klotrimazol Ear Drop” 혹은 “Canesten Ear Drop”이라는 이름으로 쉽게 구할 수 있다고 나와 있습니다.

• [이미지]

• 
• 

이전

다음

다가오는 한인 행사일정

• 등록 된 일정이 없어요!

• 
• 

이전

다음

• 
• 
•