🇰🇷 Korea Stock Market 4:30 PM Closing Briefing — September 16, 2026

Today's conclusion is more than just a simple technical rebound, but the selling of physical stocks by foreigners has not ended. KOSPI closed at 6,717.97(+1.37%), KOSPI200 at 1,060.05(+1.69%), and KOSDAQ at 815.98(+0.44%). In particular, KOSPI practically closed at the high end with a low of 6,598.87 during trading → a closing price of 6,717.97, and semiconductor buying drove the rebound. Future Vision - Electronic Newspaper

I used the 9/16 HTS data after 3:45 PM you provided today as the highest priority. There may be some differences in the physical supply and demand of publicly released data depending on the collection criteria, so I will use the final HTS value as the basis for the article and indicate any differences separately. The 9/15 HTS figures were not reused in today's analysis.

① Today's Market at a Glance

② Market Quant Score

Market Quant Score: 61 / 100 — Rebound Confirmed, Trend Change Unconfirmed Yet

The market structure improved compared to yesterday, but Macro is still risky.

With the US 10-year yield at around 4.99%, Brent crude oil at around $107, and WTI crude oil at around $104, there is still pressure on growth stocks' discount rates and the won. The market reflecting a roughly 93% probability of a 25bp Fed rate hike according to Reuters data is also a burden factor. Reuters

③ Foreigners & Institutions: Spot Trading

HTS Final Criteria

Although there are differences in the disclosed data depending on the aggregation criteria, such as institutions at +1.21~1.34 trillion won and foreigners at -1.40~-1.68 trillion won, the direction is the same. Buffet Research Institute

Today's key point is:

Foreigners continued to sell KOSPI spot, but institutions bought large-cap semiconductors.

.

There is still no evidence that foreign selling of spot has ended.

④ KOSPI200 Futures + OI + Basis + Program

Futures Trading

This is the most important change today.

The direction of spot and futures has diverged.

Foreigners Spot -1,405.8 billion won

↕

Foreigners Futures +6,732 billion won

Therefore, it should not be simply interpreted as a shift to foreign buying strength.

Possibility is:

★ OI is the key

Final:

132,238

Previous day:

132,022

Therefore:

+216 contracts

.

The price is +2.05%, and OI has also increased slightly.

Typically:

Price↑ + OI↑ = Possibility of new Long inflow

.

However, the intraday situation is more complex.

Intraday OI

High 132,607

→ Low 130,928

→ Close 132,238

In other words, significant position liquidation occurred from morning to mid-afternoon, and OI increased by approximately +1,300 contracts in the late afternoon along with a price increase.

This change in the latter half is important.

If there were only Short Cover, Price↑ + OI↓ would be natural.

However, in the end:

Price↑ + OI↑

It changed to.

Therefore, we see a high possibility that new Longs entered in the late afternoon.

Basis

Spot K200:

1,060.05

Futures:

1,061.15

Basis:

+1.10p

.

Futures have switched to Contango, which is higher than the spot price.

This is a signal that fear in the derivatives market has significantly eased.

Program

On user HTS:

All / Difference / Non-difference are all net selling positions, especially the cumulative selling of non-difference was large.

Since I couldn't cross-check with a reliable publicly available closing value,:

Data Unconfirmed

.

⑤ Options Market

HTS amount based:

Today's options did not show a significant expansion of foreigners' strong downward hedging.

Key Events

October futures confirmed on HTS:

Total OI and trading volume for each stock cannot be confirmed definitively, and PCR is treated as data unconfirmed.

⑥ Semiconductors and Major Leading Stocks

Today's rebound has a clear center.

SK Hynix +4.08% → 1,759,000 won

Samsung Electronics +2.01% → 253,500 won

It is. Window to the Future - Electronic Newspaper

Power equipment was also strong.

Hyosung Heavy Industries +4.35%

LS ELECTRIC +2.41%

On the other hand, shipbuilding saw HD Hyundai Heavy Industries -2.87%, Samsung Heavy Industries -2.42%. Window to the Future - Electronic Newspaper

Therefore, today's Rotation is:

Semiconductors·AI → Power Equipment

centered.

⑦ 12 Fixed Sector Quant

Today, the KOSPI index rose by +1.37%, with 268 advancing stocks and 597 declining stocks.

In other words, Breadth is poor.

Yonhap News also confirms that there were more declining stocks than advancing stocks. Yonhap News

Therefore, today is not a market-wide rally but a concentrated rebound of large-cap stocks centered on semiconductors.

⑧ ★ Top 15 Sectors & Key Stock Signals for the Day

The top 15 is not a buy recommendation ranking, but a market map synthesizing relative strength, supply/demand, trading volume, and catalysts for the day.

The actual leading force confirmed today is semiconductors and power equipment most clearly. The actual closing rise rates of Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and Hyosung Heavy Industries and LS ELECTRIC also support this. A Window to the Future - Electronics Times

⑨ KOSPI / KOSPI200 Technical Structure

Today's KOSPI ending at intraday low 6,598.87 → closing price 6,717.97 near the actual high is positive. News Today

K200 futures were even stronger.

1,034.60 → 1,061.55 → 1,061.15

.

In other words, it strongly recovered from yesterday's downside risk zone.

Short-term structure is:

Downward Impulse

→ Selling Climax

→ Bounce Wave

The possibility has increased.

However, because breadth is poor, it is not yet confirmed as a new upward impulse.

⑩ Elliott/Neely + Wyckoff + Volume Profile + Supply/Demand + OI + RS + Regime

Today's Volume Profile key:

Key Value Area

1,052~1,057

.

🟢 Scenario A — Bounce Wave Continuation

50%

Conditions:

1,052~1,055 Support

• Continued foreign net buying in futures

• OI maintenance/gradual increase

• Semiconductor RS maintenance

Target:

1,065 → 1,075 → 1,085

Invalidation:

1,049 downward break

🟡 Scenario B — Short Cover 후 박스

30%

Conditions:

Decrease in foreign buying

• OI decrease

Range:

1,045~1,065

In this case, today's significant rise is judged to have been largely due to existing Short Cover.

🔴 Scenario C — Bear Market Rally 종료

20%

Conditions:

1,049↓ → 1,044↓

• Resumption of simultaneous selling by foreigners in spot and futures markets

• OI increase

Target:

1,035 → 1,025

Invalidation:

1,065 breakthrough

⑪ Next Trading Day Key Support and Resistance

Most Important Number

1,050

If it stays above 1,050 tomorrow, the quality of today's rebound will be alive.

⑫ Most Important Risks to Watch For

First is the Fed. The market is already reflecting about a 93% probability of a 25bp rate hike, so the dot plot and future rate path are more important than the actual interest rate. Reuters

Second is Oil. While WTI fell slightly today, Brent crude oil at around $107 is still high, and the Saudi supply disruption and Hormuz Strait risks have not disappeared. Reuters

Third is foreign buying in the spot market. Despite a 1.37% rise in the index, foreigners continued large-scale net selling.

Therefore, the combination I am most concerned about is:

US10Y again >5.05% + WTI >$107 + USD/KRW >1,365 + Foreign spot and futures simultaneous selling + OI increase

It is.

⑬ Final Market Dashboard

⑭ Today's Key Conclusions

Today, the rise of +1.37% is less important than the changes in the derivative market.

Today's key connecting link

**K200 Futures +2.05%

• Foreigner Futures +6,732 billion

• OI +216

• Basis +1.10

• Futures high close**

is.

This is too strong to be explained by a typical Short Cover.

Especially, the fact that OI decreased to 130,928 and then increased again to 132,238, leading to futures rising near 1,061, suggests a possibility of some new Longs entering in the latter half.

However, it is too early to judge today's rise as a new upward trend right away.

There are two reasons for this.

① Foreigners still sold KOSPI spot by about 1.4 trillion won.

② There were far more KOSPI declining stocks than rising stocks.

In short, today is:

a Semiconductor-led Index Rally rather than a Broad Market Rally

in nature.

Therefore, the first thing I will check on the next trading day is ① whether K200 maintains 1,050, ② whether foreigners continue to net buy futures, ③ whether OI increases along with price increase, ④ whether the scale of foreigner spot selling decreases, and ⑤ whether breadth expands from semiconductors to power equipment, robots, secondary batteries, etc.

If four or more of these five conditions are met, I can raise Market Quant to 65~70, and conversely, if both 1,050 breakout + foreigner futures re-selling + OI increase occur simultaneously, today's rebound will be reassessed as a Short Cover-centered Bear Market Rally.

The current strategic judgment is 50:50 defense: offense. Although there has been a reason to shift one step more aggressively than yesterday, it is not yet at the stage to declare a full-scale risk-on conversion.