🇰🇷 09/15/2026 Korean Stock Market 4:30 PM Closing Briefing

Key Judgments First: Today's market "saw a decline of -0.85% in the index, but internal supply and demand were weaker than the index" suggests.
The most important combination is Foreign KOSPI Spot -1.70 trillion won + K200 Futures -1.35 trillion won + Futures Price Decline + OI +2,361 Contracts + Basis -2.66p + Continued Non-Arbitrage Program Selling. Therefore, it is evaluated as a day when the proportion of new downside positions or physical hedging increased compared to the simple position liquidation situation seen on September 9th and 10th.

However, OI represents the total outstanding contracts in the market, so it cannot be immediately interpreted as "Foreigners' New Short 1.35 trillion won". Since institutions have +1.53 trillion won futures purchases on the opposite side, there is a possibility that both foreign new shorts/hedges and institutional short covers/new longs were formed simultaneously.

The 9/15 HTS 3:45 PM final screen provided today was used as the top priority data for the day. Since many pre-market and intraday data are still exposed on public websites, we prioritized today's HTS final value in case of conflicts. In particular, since the KOSDAQ value on some public pages differed from the HTS closing value, KOSDAQ is analyzed based on 812.41 of the user's HTS.

① Today's Market at a Glance

Therefore, today's Korean market is more significantly influenced by

Middle East → Oil Prices↑ → Expected Inflation↑ → US Treasury Yields↑ → Dollar↑ → Won↓ → Foreign Selling of Korean Stocks

This Macro transmission is more important than a simple "semiconductor adjustment."

② Market Quant Score

Today's Market Quant Score: 42 / 100 — Defensive / Risk-Off

이 부분은 어제보다 더 나빠졌습니다.

미국 10년물 금리가 5.0266% 부근까지 상승했고 시장에서는 9월 FOMC에서 금리 인상 가능성을 약 90% 수준으로 반영하고 있습니다. 달러도 강해지고 있습니다. Reuters

여기에 사우디 동서 송유관 관련 공급 우려와 중동 긴장으로 WTI $103, Brent $107대가 형성됐습니다. Reuters

현재 가장 큰 위험은 주가 자체가 아니라 Oil → Inflation → UST10Y → USD/KRW 연결고리입니다.

③ 외국인·기관 현물 수급

KOSPI

KOSDAQ

여기서 시장의 구조적 차이가 명확합니다.

KOSPI

외국인 🔴
기관 🔴
개인 🟢

반면

KOSDAQ

외국인 🟢
기관 🟢
개인 🔴

입니다.

즉 오늘 KOSDAQ +0.70%는 단순 개인 투기성 반등이 아니라 외국인+기관이 동시에 매수한 상대강도 개선이라는 점에서 질이 KOSPI보다 좋습니다.

④ KOSPI200 선물·OI·Basis·프로그램

선물 수급

Today's most important data.

Price ↓ + OI ↑

Previous Day OI
129,661

→ Today
132,022

→ +2,361 contracts

At the same time, futures

1,048.40 → 1,039.80

fell.

Typically,

Price↓ + OI↑ = Possibility of increased new Shorts

means this.

However, this is the total market OI.

Therefore, we see it like this today.

Meaning of Institution +1.53 trillion Futures Purchase

A significant portion of this is from Financial Investment.

Financial Investment Futures

+1 trillion 2,518 billion

Therefore, interpreting this as a purely bullish Long position is risky.

Spot·ETF·Derivative hedging / Basis trading / Market making positions are likely mixed in.

Intraday OI Change

User HTS:

131,709 → 132,342 → 132,022

Price:

1,045.70 → 1,034.55 → 1,039.80

In other words, it rebounded by about +5.25p from the low.

However, OI is still +2,361 compared to yesterday.

This is important.

Judgment

If it were a simple Short Cover rebound,

Price↑ + OI↓

would be more natural.

That is not the case today.

Therefore, even with the afternoon rebound, it is judged that short positions have not been sufficiently liquidated.

Basis

-2.66p

Futures 1,039.80
Spot K200 1,042.46

In other words, this is a clear Backwardation.

Short-term risk aversion is more strongly reflected in futures than in spot.

Program

HTS status

Spread: Small net short position

Non-spread: Large net short position

Total: Large net short position

has continued.

Since the exact final amount was not cross-checked with a reliable confirmed value on the public web as of 16:30, it is treated as data unconfirmed.

I will not arbitrarily estimate numbers.

⑤ Options Market

Amount by Investor Type

Foreigners are

Spot selling + Futures selling + Put buying

.

Looking at today alone, it is clearly Defensive.

However, since the option amount itself is much smaller than the spot and futures scale, it is not enough to determine the direction based on one option.

1,050 Strike Price

HTS display:

• C 1050 : 37.45

• P 1050 : 51.50

Since the current K200 is 1,042.46, 1,050 is likely to play the role of a short-term reference point.

The overall OI and accurate trading volume based on major strike prices PCR (Put/Call Ratio) cannot be confirmed as reliable final data was not secured at 16:30, so it is treated as data unconfirmed.

⑥ Semiconductors & Leading Stocks

Today, Samsung Electronics closed at 248,500 won -0.20%, and SK Hynix closed at 1,690,000 won -0.41%. Both stocks rose during the day but gave up all gains in the afternoon. Yonhap News

This is a significant change.

Despite the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunging -5.86% the previous day, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix only fell -0.2% and -0.4%, respectively. New Daily

Therefore, semiconductors themselves are

Never Momentum ↓

But

Relative Strength ↑ compared to US semiconductors

.

In other words, we do not yet consider it a structural collapse signal for Korean semiconductors.

However, if US interest rates remain above 5%, AI and semiconductor valuation compression is unavoidable.

⑦ Quant Score of 12 Sectors

Therefore, the current Sector RS Rotation is

Mega-cap AI/Semiconductor → Secondary Battery·Robot·Some Industrial Materials

moving in this direction.

⑧ Major Stock Signals

Based on user holdings/interest stocks:

⑨ KOSPI / KOSPI200 기술적 구조

KOSPI는 최근

7,051 → 7,034 → 6,910 → 6,684 → 6,627

구조입니다.

명백히 Lower High / Lower Low가 진행되고 있습니다.

따라서 현재 단기 추세는 아직 Down Trend입니다.

K200

오늘:

1,042.46

선물 저점:

1,034.55

즉 현 시점 핵심 방어선은

1,035~1,040

입니다.

⑩ Elliott / Neely + Wyckoff + VP + 현선물 + OI + RS + Regime

Volume Profile

오늘 제공된 HTS 기준:

가장 중요한 POC 성격의 영역은

1,038.85~1,041.18

입니다.

그리고 상단 대형 공급대는

1,048~1,053

입니다.

시나리오 A — 기술적 반등

확률 35%

조건:

1,035~1,040 지지

→ 1,045 돌파

→ 1,050~1,053 회복

→ 외국인 선물매도 감소

→ OI 감소

이 경우 현재 하락을 ABC 조정 / Wyckoff Spring성 반등 시도로 볼 수 있습니다.

무효화

1,034 Exits

Scenario B — Box Office Reaccumulation

Probability 25%

Range:

1,035 ↔ 1,055

KOSPI:

6,550~6,750

If the relative strength of KOSDAQ is maintained, this is the healthiest scenario.

Rotation proceeds from Mega-cap to mid-sized growth stocks, secondary batteries, robots, and shipbuilding.

Scenario C — Resumption of Downtrend

Probability 40% — Currently Highest

Conditions:

1,034 Downward Break

• OI Increase

• Continued Foreigner Futures Selling

• USD/KRW >1,365

• US 10Y >5%

In this case

1,025

→ 1,010

→ 1,000

could open.

We need to be most wary of this scenario if we only look at the derivative market.

⑪ Key Support and Resistance for Next Trading Day

K200 Futures

Most Important Number Tomorrow

1,050

is.

Below 1,050 is still a rebound, and

between 1,050~1,053 with OI decrease, we can discuss the “possibility of downtrend ending”.

⑫ Risks to Be Most Wary Of

1. US 10Y 5%

2. WTI $103 / Brent $107

3. USD/KRW 1,360

4. Foreigner Spot -1.7 trillion won

5. Foreigner Futures -1.35 trillion won

6. OI Increase

7. Backwardation -2.66p

Especially the first three are connected.

According to Reuters, the US 10-year yield exceeded 5.02%, and oil prices are rising again due to concerns about Saudi supply disruptions. Reuters

The combination I am most wary of is:

**WTI > $105

• US10Y > 5.05%

• USD/KRW > 1,365

• Foreigners selling both spot and futures.

• OI increase**

is happening.

If these 5 things happen simultaneously, you should lower the Risk Regime by one step.

⑬ Market Dashboard

⑭ Today's Key Conclusions

What I consider most important today is not the number KOSPI -0.85%.

Here's the key.

Foreigner Spot -1.70 trillion won

+

Foreigner Futures -1.35 trillion won

+

Futures -0.82%

+

OI +2,361

+

Basis -2.66

.

This structure is different from the "large OI reduction due to expiration and rollover" on September 9-10.

We should now consider the possibility that actual risk aversion positions are being rebuilt.

However, there are also significant positive signals on the other side.

Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix have held up very well compared to the US semiconductor plunge, and KOSDAQ is +0.70%, with both foreigners and institutions net buying KOSDAQ. This suggests that the market as a whole is not collapsing but rather that large-cap De-risking + small/mid-cap growth stock Rotation are happening simultaneously. The fact that Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix only fell -0.20% and -0.41%, respectively, supports this judgment. Yonhap News

Therefore, the most important confirmation order for tomorrow is just four things.

① K200 1,034~1,040 defense → ② Decrease in foreigner futures selling → ③ OI decrease conversion → ④ Recovery to 1,050~1,053.

If these four things happen, the probability of a rebound can be increased from 35% to over 55%.

On the other hand, if 1,034 is broken and OI continues to increase while foreigners sell both spot and futures, even if semiconductors hold up, I would prioritize cash preservation over additional purchases.

And currently, the most dangerous variable in Macro is not the Iran news itself, but the Middle East shock that simultaneously drives up oil prices and US long-term interest rates. If the US 10-year yield exceeds 5% and oil prices exceed $100, it will put pressure on both growth stock discount rates and the Korean won. Reuters

Current strategy rating: Defense 60 / Attack 40. It is not yet a new large-scale pursuit buying zone.