The global environment is also very bad. According to Reuters, Brent rose to about $107~108, WTI rose to about $103, and the US 10-year yield approached 5% at about 4.97%. The probability of a rate hike by the Fed this week has also been reflected up to about 86%. Reuters
Downgraded again from the 54 point level on 9/11.
Components | Score | Judgment |
|---|
Price Trend | 31 | KOSPI -3.26% |
KOSDAQ | 44 | Relatively less decline |
Foreigner Spot | 12 | -3.91 trillion |
Institution Spot | 24 | -1.72 trillion |
Foreigner Futures | 25 | -7,831 billion |
Institution Futures | 68 | +6,888 billion |
OI Structure | 27 | Price↓ + OI↑ |
Basis | 27 | -2.43 |
Program | 22 | Overall/Non-Arbitrage Continued Selling |
Option | 48 | Reduction of Foreigner Dual Options |
Market Breadth | 28 | KOSPI Declining Stocks 590 |
Semiconductor RS | 19 | Weakest Group |
VKOSPI | 31 | 46.85 |
Exchange Rate | 35 | Won Weakness |
Macro | 17 | Oil/Yield/AI Risk |
Macro Quant Score: 17 / 100This appears to be the worst level we've seen since September began.
Four unfavorable factors for the Korean stock market are currently occurring simultaneously.
**US 10Y ≈ 5%
In particular, as executives of major AI companies raised the need to slow AI development speed, Asian AI and semiconductor stocks fell broadly. Reuters reported that AI-related stocks, including SK Hynix and Japan's SoftBank, were simultaneously hit hard. Reuters
③ Foreign Investor/Institutional Cash Supply and Demand
Based on final HTS data:
Market | Retail | Foreign Investors | Institutions |
|---|
KOSPI | +4조1,573억 | 🔴 -3조9,121억 | 🔴 -1조7,220억 |
KOSDAQ | +1,503억 | -1,226억 | -351억 |
In public reports, KOSPI foreign investors showed approximately -3.91 trillion won and institutions approximately -1.69 trillion won, which is essentially consistent with user HTS data. Foreign investors had 4 consecutive trading days of net selling, and institutions also showed 5 consecutive trading days of selling, according to reports. Seoul Economic Daily
Important Changes
Previously, there were days when institutions would absorb sales even when foreign investors were selling.
Today:
Foreign investors -3.91T + Institutions -1.72T
it is.
Retail investors bought +4.16 trillion won, but KOSPI fell -3.26%.
This is not favorable supply and demand in that institutional risk absorption is weakening and retail is absorbing selling volumes.
In the latter part of the trading day, HTS supply and demand also showed continued net selling by foreign investors. There were momentary buying reversals like 15:20 -159억 → 15:30 +354억 → 15:40 -18억, but they were not enough to reverse the day's accumulated large-scale selling.
④ ★ KOSPI200 Futures · OI · Basis · Program
This is the key to today's analysis.
K200 December Contract Supply and Demand
Subject | Net Buying Amount |
|---|
Individual | +1,237 billion |
Foreigner | 🔴 -7,831 billion |
Institution | 🟢 +6,888 billion |
Financial Investment | +1 trillion 5,455 billion |
Private Equity Fund | -8,456 billion |
Futures are:
1,098.30 → 1,045.85 → 1,048.40
Ended.
The closing price was only about 2.55p different from the low.
In other words, the rebound during the day almost failed.
OI
Previous day:
128,592
Today:
129,661
Increase:
+1,069 contracts
.
During the day, OI rose to 131,853.
In other words, during the morning decline:
About +3,261 contracts increased in new positions
before some were liquidated in the afternoon, ending with a net increase of +1,069.
Price↓ + OI↑ + Foreigner Futures↓
The important thing here is that OI is the total market OI, so:
OI +1,069 = Foreigner Short +1,069
is not necessarily true.
However, if we estimate the probability based on today's combination:
Position Structure | Probability |
|---|
New Foreigner Short + New Institution/Financial Investment Long | 40% |
Foreigner Spot Risk Hedge Short + Counterparty New Long | 30% |
Existing Long Liquidation + New Short Mix | 15% |
Private Equity Short / Financial Investment Long Basis Trade | 10% |
Simple Position Liquidation | 5% |
In other words, we assess the possibility of a new Short/Hedge Short total as about 70%.
This does not mean that the direction is Bearish 70%, but rather that the proportion of new Shorts and Hedges in Foreigner Futures sales has increased compared to simple Long liquidation.
9/11 → 9/14 Structure Change
9/11
9/14
In short:
Price↓ → OI↑ → Basis deterioration → Continued foreigner selling
This is the case for two consecutive days.
It has become difficult to attribute this simply to maturity effects.
Program Trading
On HTS graph:
Overall: Large-scale net selling
Arbitrage: Net selling
Non-arbitrage: Largest net selling
Cumulative selling continued until the afternoon.
It is.
The overall cumulative amount on the graph appears to be around -2.5 trillion won or more, but since the exact final amount in Korean won has not been confirmed in public data:
Overall: Data unconfirmed
Arbitrage: Data unconfirmed
Non-arbitrage: Data unconfirmed
It will be treated as such.
The important thing is the direction, and the fact that foreigner spot large-scale selling and program non-arbitrage selling are in the same direction.
⑤ Options Market
Based on HTS amount:
Subject | Call | Put |
|---|
Individual | -700 million | +1.6 billion |
Foreigner | -400 million | -1.6 billion |
Institution | +1.1 billion | +200 million |
There is an important point.
Foreigners did not buy Put today, but rather net sold -1.6 billion.
Therefore, looking only at options:
“They strongly bet on further decline”
cannot be said.
Call -4 + Put -16 suggests the possibility of two-way option exposure or reduction in volatility exposure as a priority.
In other words, today's key evidence for weakness is:
Spot + Futures + OI + Basis + Program
It is.
Key 1,090 events
HTS:
Option | Price | Change | Volume | OI |
|---|
Call 1,090 | 28.40 | -41.86% | 85 | 209 |
Put 1,090 | 70.00 | +52.58% | 8 | 93 |
Total Market PCR:
Data Unavailable
OI PCR:
Data Unavailable
Trading volume is small, so market direction should not be judged by a single event.
⑥ Semiconductors and Key Leading Stocks
Today's KOSPI decline was centered on semiconductors·AI.
Public closing data:
Samsung Electronics 249,000 won -4.05%
SK Hynix 169.7 million won -6.35%
Samsung Electro-Mechanics -4.50%
Seoul Economic Daily
The AI fundamentals themselves did not collapse in a single day. Just a few days ago, OpenAI announced that it was expanding its next-generation semiconductor collaboration with Samsung Electronics, and the AI memory supply structure of Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix is also being maintained. Reuters
However, the current market problem is:
Earnings, not Multiple
.
With 10-year yields at 5%, oil prices above $100, and regulatory concerns over the pace of AI investment, there is a situation where both the long-term cash flow discount rate and Capex expectations for AI companies are being lowered simultaneously.
In addition, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix's refusal to agree to a 25 trillion won advance payment proposal from Korea Electric Power Corporation (KEPCO) related to the semiconductor cluster power grid was also reported today. This can be seen as meaning that the long-term funding structure for AI·semiconductor power infrastructure has not yet been settled. Reuters
⑦ 12 Fixed Sector Quant Score
Sector | Score | Features/Supply and Demand | RS | Short-Term Outlook |
|---|
Finance·Securities·Insurance | 76 | Benefit from rising interest rates | ★★★★★ | 🟢 |
Defense·Aerospace | 68 | Geopolitical premium | ★★★★ | 🟢 |
Shipbuilding | 66 | Expected LNG/tanker demand | ★★★★ | 🟡🟢 |
Construction·Nuclear Power·Energy | 59 | Energy security vs. interest rates | ★★★ | 🟡 |
Electrical Equipment | 55 | Long-term demand, discount burden | ★★★ | 🟡 |
Bio·Pharmaceuticals | 51 | Defensive | ★★☆ | 🟡 |
Robots·Machinery | 47 | High Beta pressure | ★★ | 🟠 |
Secondary Batteries | 46 | Avoidance of risky assets | ★★ | 🟠 |
Cosmetics·Beauty | 44 | Supply and demand burden | ★★ | 🟠 |
Automobiles·Parts | 39 | Competition+high prices | ★★ | 🔴 |
Internet·AI·SW | 32 | AI regulation+interest rates | ★ | 🔴 |
Semiconductors·AI | 27 | AI concerns+foreign selling | ★ | 🔴🔴 |
Financial stocks showed exceptional relative strength today. Woori Financial +4.99%, Hana Financial +2.18%, KB Financial +2.08% reflected expectations for improved net interest margins due to high interest rates. Seoul Economic DailyAutomobiles faced additional headwinds besides the market decline. Concerns about intensified competition in the US market for Hyundai and Kia were raised as the US President mentioned the possibility of Chinese automakers producing locally in the US. Seoul Economic Daily
⑧ Major Stock Signals
Item/Group | Signal | Judgment |
|---|
Samsung Electronics | 🔴🔴 | Foreigner Risk-Off + AI Multiple Compression |
SK Hynix | 🔴🔴 | High Beta AI Adjustment Centered |
SK Square | 🔴 | Hynix Beta |
Samsung Electro-Mechanics | 🔴 | Growth Stock Discount Rate Shock |
HD Hyundai Electric | 🟡 | Long-Term Structure Effective |
LS ELECTRIC | 🟡 | Trend Confirmation Required |
Hyosung Heavy Industries | 🟡 | Interest Burden |
KB Financial | 🟢🟢 | High Interest Rate Relative Benefit |
Hana Financial | 🟢🟢 | Financial RS Rise |
Woori Financial | 🟢🟢 | Strong Relative Strength Today |
Hanwha Ocean | 🟡🟢 | Energy·Shipbuilding Structure |
Hanwha Aerospace | 🟢 | Geopolitical RS |
Hyundai Motor | 🔴 | High Oil Prices + China Competition Concerns |
Robot Stocks | 🟠 | High Beta |
Celltrion/Bio | 🟡 | Possible Defensive Play |
⑨ KOSPI / KOSPI200 Technical Structure
KOSPI has now failed to recover the 7,000 line and fallen to around 6,700.
K200 December Futures:
1,098.30 → 1,045.85 → 1,048.40
.
Compared to the closing price of 1,088.30 on 9/11, it has fallen:
-39.9p / approximately -3.7%
.
Technically, it is a clear Lower Low + Lower High structure.
Volume Profile
The most important price range on HTS today is:
Price Range | Trading Volume Proportion |
|---|
1,051.91~1,049.75 | 22.97% |
1,054.08~1,051.92 | 17.17% |
1,049.74~1,047.58 | 13.34% |
1,056.25~1,054.09 | 11.12% |
1,064.93~1,062.77 | 9.25% |
1,060.59~1,058.43 | 8.08% |
A significant portion of the trading was concentrated in:
1,047.5~1,054.1
.
The closing price of 1,048.40 is at the lower end of the Value Area.
Therefore, for the next trading day:
Recovery to 1,050~1,054 = First normalization
Break below 1,047 = Resumption of weakness
Break below 1,045.85 = New low
.
⑩ Elliott/Neely + Wyckoff + VP + Supply & Demand + OI + RS + Regime
🔴 Scenario A — Continuation of Downward Impulse
55% — Base Case
This is the highest probability scenario currently.
Reasons:
Path:
1,048 → 1,045
→ 1,038~1,040
→ 1,025~1,030
.
Invalidation
Recovery above 1,060 + Foreigners net buying futures + Basis improvement + Increasing OI
🟡 Scenario B — Technical Rebound After Selling Climax
30%
Because the price drop and the scale of foreigner spot selling today are very large, there is a considerable possibility of an oversold rebound.
From a Wyckoff perspective, tomorrow could be a candidate for Spring / Selling Climax.
Conditions:
Rebound Target:
1,060 → 1,067 → 1,075
Invalidation
1,040 Breakaway
🟢 Scenario C — Transition to a New Bullish Structure
15%
Still Low.
The necessary condition is not simply an index rebound.
**Price↑ + OI↑**
All of these must occur simultaneously.
Key Price:
1,075~1,080
.
Until then, the rebound is more likely to be seen as a Bear Market Rally / Technical Rebound.
⑫ Next Trading Day Key Support & Resistance
K200 December Futures
Price | Meaning |
|---|
1,075~1,080 | 🔴 Trend Reversal Line |
1,065~1,067 | 🔴 Strong Resistance |
1,058~1,060 | 🔴 1st Rebound Target |
1,052~1,054 | ⭐ POC/Value Recovery |
1,048~1,050 | Current Pivot |
1,045~1,046 | 🔴 Today's Low |
1,038~1,040 | 🟠 1st Decline Target |
1,025~1,030 | 🔴 Major Support |
1,010~1,015 | 🔴 Tail Risk |
KOSPI
6,800~6,850: First Strong Resistance
6,700~6,720: Recovery Needed
6,650~6,680: Current Support Zone
6,550~6,600: Next Major Support
6,450~6,500: Key Defense in Case of Decline Expansion
⑫ Most Important Risks to Watch For
1. US 10-Year Treasury Yield Breaks 5%
Currently, it is right around 4.97%. If it settles above 5%, there could be an additional discount rate shock for growth assets with long durations like AI and semiconductors. Reuters
2. Brent $110 → $120
The problems with the Saudi East-West pipeline and the increasing transportation risks in the Red Sea and Hormuz are simultaneously growing. Reuters reported that shipping costs and supply risk itself are expanding.
Reuters3. Fed September Meeting
The market is almost reflecting a 25bp hike as the base scenario. What's important is not whether there will be a hike, but additional guidance on further hikes. Reuters
4. Continued Foreign Selling of Spot and Futures
This is the most dangerous domestic signal today.
And on the next trading day:
Foreigners Spot -
If this repeats, the strength of confirmation for a downward regime will be quite high.
⑬ Final Market Dashboard
Item | Status |
|---|
Market Quant | 🔴 42/100 |
Macro Quant | 🔴🔴 17/100 |
Regime | Risk-Off / Bearish |
KOSPI | 🔴🔴 |
KOSDAQ | 🔴 |
Foreign Stock | 🔴🔴 |
Institutional Stock | 🔴 |
Foreign Futures | 🔴🔴 |
Institutional Futures | 🟢 |
OI | 🔴 +1,069 |
Price/OI | 🔴 Price↓ + OI↑ |
Basis | 🔴 -2.43 |
Program | 🔴🔴 |
Option | 🟡 |
VKOSPI | 🔴 |
USD/KRW | 🔴 |
WTI/Brent | 🔴🔴 |
US10Y | 🔴🔴 |
Semiconductor·AI | 🔴🔴 |
Finance | 🟢 |
Shipbuilding·Defense | 🟡🟢 |
New Long | ❌ Unconfirmed |
New Short/Hedge | ⚠️ High Possibility |
Chase Buying | 🔴 |
Technical Rebound Possibility | 🟡 |
⑭ Today's Key Conclusions
Today is a day when the important warning stage has been raised by one more step in the September market.
The key figures are:
KOSPI -3.26%
K200 -3.61%
K200 December futures -3.67%
Foreigners' spot -3 trillion 9,121 billion won
Institutions' spot -1 trillion 7,220 billion won
Foreigners' futures -7,831 billion won
Institutions' futures +6,888 billion won
OI +1,069
Basis -2.43
.
Since the OI decreased rapidly before the September expiration, we initially interpreted it as Long liquidation·expiration Deleveraging.
Things are different now.
