The following are the objectives.
1. I only invest in semiconductor leaders. Therefore, I am only analyzing the semiconductor industry.
2. I measure the rationality of the management/cost/process/logistics aspects of semiconductor mega projects.
3. All data has been verified four times. There may be some errors, but they are not expected to affect the results.
4. Stocks have a primary correlation with politics. Therefore, I strongly believe that mega projects are fictitious. For this to succeed, the current president's will must be carried out in the current political situation. The possibility is up to individual speculation.
5. It can be seen that Russia/Ukraine accounts for a significant portion of raw materials for semiconductors. There seems to be an aspect to consider the continuous discount caused by the two wars on the semiconductor sector.
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1HuZuo4L5hDMtymNExQ1aPSpeOkZhlO6T/edit?usp=sharing&ouid=114517361703957635844&rtpof=true&sd=true
**Interest Rates
1. The US media seems to strongly predict "rate hikes" with a ratio of 9:1 or more, citing that the underlying indicators are expected to exceed expectations. However, there is an aspect to consider how to resolve the contradiction between the emphasis on "fundamentals" by the Fed and the strong influence of "oil prices" as an energy factor.
2. The contradiction between fundamentals and the energy aspect, on the other hand, if the independent variable of prolonged war is confirmed, this would also become a fundamental factor. I believe that Trump, Iran, or anyone else who wants to end the war is involved. There is room to consider the possibility that Trump could make a surprise announcement of "false armistice or ceasefire" before the FOMC meeting.
3. It is predicted that the stock market will reflect interest rate hikes only "limitedly" and that the stock market's autumn rally will solidify. This is because the current market interest rate has already risen to a level assuming a rate hike.
4. US semiconductor stocks continued to face downward pressure due to the inertia of the early decline in the stock market, but rebounded slightly in the latter half of the trading session. Semiconductors were watched until dawn, but they only showed a "what will happen" pattern as they fluctuated between 0.5~2.5% based on the benchmark.
5. Whether it is good news or bad news... The judgment is up to the individual. I believe that judging the semiconductor sector by looking at only the Nasdaq yesterday is not enough.
6. Personal opinion: I still expect a higher proportion of "freezing" than the market, although the possibility has decreased. Even if I am wrong, what does it matter now? The market has already reflected up to 5%, and it has come to a slightly sluggish state. It was fortunate that Korea preemptively raised interest rates. There are concerns about an additional rate hike in late December. However, the situation for small and medium-sized enterprises is expected to worsen further.
ft. I only analyze based on "figures" and look at the rationality criteria of the management side. If "politics" intervenes, it can overcome all of this. Mega projects are impossible without strong political intervention. My opinion is strong.
