I value using PBR. When the memory sector maintains an "oversold position," I don't overlook the importance of capex. cxmt's rise was ultimately due to this capex issue, and it will continue in the future. Therefore, while using PBR valuation, I will only observe whether the "multiple" approaches tsmc in the future.
BPS, which is the basis of PBR, used the latest Hana Securities data, and the values are 180,000 for Samsung and 800,000 for Hynix.
Summary
1. Past min/max range estimation: Super cycle standard Samsung 540,000, Hynix 3,270,000 maximum target stock price
2. Statistical estimation: Both Samsung and Hynix are within the trend range and apply shareholder return: 8% - Applying the actual value used by overseas IBs
3. Currently, Samsung and Hynix are slightly undervalued when shareholder return is applied.
4. Refer to the file for the rest.
I judge that PER is inappropriate for the memory sector. I will maintain this until a basis is presented on how to eliminate profit volatility. Considering tsmc's pbr multiple of 5 or more, Hynix is already applying an approximate value. Therefore, utility value cannot be ignored.
Please refer to the Google file.
Today, the producer price index was poor, and the Nasdaq Composite Index fell sharply. However, I believe it will recover. It's a temporary setback, right? The structural discount on interest rates is a global common issue, so it is reported that it can be applied after the actual FOMC announcement. There is also a possibility of a gap decline tomorrow, but expectations are high on how Nasdaq will view the producer price index. I expect cyclical trading.
ft. I currently see the interest rate situation as a power struggle between Wall Street and Trump. Since Wash emphasizes post-verification, I don't think he will make preemptive decisions. However, if there are 7 or more votes for a rate hike, they will raise it. If the votes are tied, it is likely to be frozen.
The producer price index (PPI) at its core seems to have fallen short of expectations. As this is important data for the FOMC, the possibility of freezing or raising interest rates has not changed. Since it's an underlying figure that Cavin Wash always emphasizes, this serves as a basis for my view that if the votes are tied, they will freeze. End.
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1rec5-SbIGlNosXM1jvcJ5rPPXFesdZsg/edit?usp=drive_link&ouid=114517361703957635844&rtpof=true&sd=true
