As of September 4th, further analysis was conducted based on price bands. Assuming last week's normal market and maintaining the assumption of shareholder return premium application. However, since the abolition of defamation is currently delayed, it is not applied as a negative factor.
I no longer apply PER valuation. Wouldn't we be the only ones applying it if conservative Wall Street doesn't recognize it? I think PBR will be appropriate until they recognize it, and even if they do, I have changed my mind that PBR will be appropriate.
However, this is based on the premise that PBR, which has been upgraded, will reflect structural growth, rather than the existing cycling of 1~2.5 times. Cycling will ease but will remain.
Estimating this part is up to the individual. If structural growth is recognized, I see PBR in the range of 3~5 times. The era of P will eventually pass and the era of Q will surely come. Whether it's in 5 years or 10 years.
This analysis suggests that Samsung Electronics has a short-term peak of 300,000 won and is capable of reaching an all-time high if a major positive event occurs.
However, as the visibility of PBR in 2027 becomes clearer towards the end of the year, the possibility of reaching an all-time high is expected to increase.
Summary: File content summary
**Premise:** Apply PBR valuation. Applying PER, which is not used by Wall Street, is the root cause of our bias error. Currently, Samsung Electronics is within the range under the PBR standard, but Hynix is slightly higher.
1. Samsung Electronics is currently at the lower end of the appropriate stock price range trend when shareholder return application is applied.
2. On the other hand, Hynix is in the upper middle range of the appropriate stock price even with shareholder return application applied.
3. Korea and the US have completely opposite interest rate policies but show the same phenomenon.
1) The US administration and chairman are strongly inclined towards interest rate freezes/cuts; I believe FOMC members will vote for a freeze in this case.
2) The Korean administration and Bank of Korea governor are strongly inclined towards interest rate hikes; Shin Hyun-song believes that if the FOMC freezes rates, there will be no further hikes.
3) Both countries have aligned decisions from their administrations and the Fed/Bank of Korea governors.
4) The intentions of both administrations are working.
4. All data has been verified.
5. However, based on the precedent PBR standard, the current stock price is undervalued for Samsung Electronics and fairly valued for Hynix.
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1HpEDxq9RcsDJqNUgKZ0FjBzGW1KKTRag/edit?usp=sharing&ouid=114517361703957635844&rtpof=true&sd=true
Breaking the all-time high is difficult or impossible at this point. Unless there are major positive events such as the end of the war or interest rate cuts, we estimate the possibility of a short-term band.
