Today was a very important day, but it ultimately broke down after forming a triangular convergence and fell below the 20-day line.
Usually, when a low point is raised through a triangular convergence, there's a 70~80% chance of hitting the top.
But there's also a 20% chance that it could go down like this.
After a sharp drop in stock prices, when it appears to be drawing an upward channel like this, but then enters the previous downward channel again, it's called a bear flag. It's usually a pattern that signals a second crash, and it tends to draw well in cases of right shoulders.
Technically speaking, it is indeed a bear flag. However, since the supply and demand changes are due to changes in the market environment, I wonder if it's really accurate to call it a bear flag entirely. With continued self-purchases by the company and as long as oil prices stabilize, there's a possibility that it could rise again into an upward channel, but for now, it seems like a fake bear flag.
Tomorrow, the 6400 support line will be very important. If oil prices stabilize and rise above the 20-day line again, there's hope that we can break through the top of the upward channel. However, Trump's taco isn't listening as well as it used to, and Iran seems to have figured out America's weaknesses and may not be willing to negotiate easily.
Looking at the futures supply and demand situation, foreigners sold throughout the day.
Futures were sold, spot prices were also sold. Although short selling data is not yet available, it is estimated that a lot of short selling was done mainly on Samsung Electronics.
Foreigners bought 500 billion won worth of futures around 3:45 pm and sold 6,000 futures again around 4:08 pm.
This means they are seeing the overall market situation negatively.
Although foreigners don't get it right every time, seeing them buy 10 billion won worth of put options on Monday made me think that they were preparing for a market decline.
As the war issue broke out again and oil prices are rising, bond yields are soaring.
Given how bad the market situation is, there's a high chance of a gap down tomorrow. Although individuals bought more than 2.3 trillion won today, if the market situation remains unfavorable tomorrow, they are likely to sell off.
In the case of institutions, the National Pension Service sold about 1.4 trillion won and the Public Officials Benefit Association sold about 120 billion won. Judging by the large amount of futures they bought, it seems that they intend to pull down stock prices for now. If the war issue continues to cause a decline, they may buy mechanically at a certain level while selling futures.
The current war issue is not a problem with semiconductor fundamentals, nor is it a problem caused by something wrong with the company. There's very little individual investors can do.
There's nothing to do but hold on and hope that things will get better. Thinking back to when the war issue was at its worst at the end of March, it makes me feel a little better knowing that things are a bit better now.
You might think about selling and buying back lower to avoid risk. However, personally, I don't think the profit and loss ratio is coming out well right now.
I hope Trump's taco comes out tonight and that the market situation improves so that everyone's accounts become abundant.
