Currently experiencing a first drop for 3 days, followed by a second drop and consolidation.
The inability to raise the low point and the continuous decline are causing anxiety.
Consolidation time has exceeded 23 hours.
I recently backtested whether recovery occurs after a large drop, based on the daily average fluctuation = 1ATR criterion of 0.5ATR or more.
Data for a large drop followed by short sideways movement.
Low Point After Consolidation Time | Sample | Next 24h Low Point Re-Departure | 38.2% Recovery | First Occurrence |
|---|
6 hours | 117 | 28.2% | 67.5% | Recovery Dominant |
12 hours | 73 | 31.5% | 56.2% | Recovery Dominant |
18 hours | 51 | 37.3% | 43.1% | Almost Balanced |
Data for a large drop followed by long sideways movement.
Crossover Time | Sample | Re-entry of the next 24h low point | Further drop of +0.25 D1 ATR below the low point | 38.2% Recovery | Secondary decline first |
|---|
24 hours | 31 | 54.8% | 48.4% | 29.0% | 51.6% |
30 hours | 20 | 45.0% | 35.0% | 40.0% | 45.0% |
36 hours | 13 | 69.2% | 46.2% | 30.8% | 61.5% |
The probability of hitting an additional downtrend beam increases significantly after 24 hours of pumping.
This is especially true in cases where the low point continues to fall, forming a Lower Low pattern.
It's already been three days of consecutive declines,
and four days of additional decline is really not common.
So today I'm short 😨
