The U.S. Treasury Department has been saying since the end of August that it will start buybacks from September 9th.
Now, the key points to watch are whether the 10-year Treasury bond yield will fall below 4.5% and whether the dollar index will fall below 98.
The reason why the 10-year Treasury bond yield of 4.5 is a key point to watch is that there are many short-entry forces at 4.6% based on the current 10-year yield... If 4.6 falls rapidly, short covering will have to occur, and this is the benchmark for the lower limit to collapse. As the showdown between short sellers begins at 4.6, short covering will quickly push it down to 4.5.
Whether the dollar index falls below 98 is about releasing liquidity and buying Treasury bonds, which will raise the prices of gold & coins. These days, even if it falls below 98.5, the price of coins rises considerably. There is a possibility that gold and coins will flock to them when 98 breaks.
In fact, there is no guarantee that buybacks will be 100% successful in the long term, but they can have a significant impact on the stock market and risky assets in the short term. Short covering may deepen, and the heat for overheated Treasury shorts may subside, returning to the previous state... But with oil prices rising, buybacks can be effective.
Therefore, if the Iran issue is resolved next week through a ceasefire or other agreement, buybacks will have a significant effect and we will be able to see the effects mentioned above.
