Hello?
With the midterm elections approaching, some say that Trump's large-scale attack on Iran means he has given up on the midterm elections.
However, even though Trump is the President of the United States, he cannot ignore the influence of the big hands behind him. Therefore, I thought there must be a reason for the current attack on Iran.
First of all, the United States is facing several economic problems, but if Trump prepares a decisive blow ahead of the November midterm elections, it will be about prices.
Especially among them, oil prices can be mentioned.
Here, oil prices are directly related to the safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran happened to spread mines there a few days ago.
From Trump's point of view, it was a situation where he had to attack, and as a countermeasure, Iran attacked Saudi merchant ships. This was an event that Trump, who needed "guaranteeing the safe passage of Hormuz" as a catchphrase, could not ignore.
At this point, Trump used two cards.
One was to show a gesture of severing cooperation with Iran by persuading Russia at the G20 meeting yesterday and bringing it to the international stage.
The other is a large-scale air raid on Iran. At least until September 20-25.
By the end of September, the United States must somehow gain consensus that the Hormuz passage is safe in order to have room to stabilize prices for a month in October.
However, I don't think an attack that will keep WTI or Brent crude oil above $100 for a long time will be easy.
If this prediction comes true, there is a possibility that the September stock price will fall by 10-15% from now.
However, since Trump has to hold the midterm elections in November, he will somehow create momentum for a rebound by the end of September.
