o September is seasonally the weakest month, but this year, volatility could increase due to a confluence of factors including the Fed's interest rate policy, inflation, employment, and oil prices from the Middle East.
- After summer vacations, investors return and trading normalizes, and portfolio adjustments by institutions are cited as reasons for seasonal weakness.
o Historically, September is the worst month for the US stock market
- S&P 500: Average -1.1% in September, Dow: Average -1.1%, Nasdaq: Average -0.8%
o This year, the Fed is more important than seasonality
- After Warsh's Jackson Hole speech, the probability of a September interest rate hike jumped from about 35% to 57%
o Therefore, employment data released in early September, ISM manufacturing and services, and price data are very important
- The most dangerous situation is when employment is weak but inflation remains high.
Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and others have strong fundamental variables such as AI servers, HBM, DRAM prices, and earnings prospects. Therefore, they won't simply fall just because the US stock market does, right?
Will it fall further...huh?
▶ Source: https://www.barrons.com/articles/september-stock-market-forecast-032f82b8?mod=hp_LEDE_C_1
