This is a report that came out before today's SK Hynix treasury stock cancellation news.
Yeah... the good news hasn't been reflected yet, and for now today's index closed right on the 20-day moving average.
Roughly speaking, the content says that the futures setup is set up purely to screw people over, that a short gamma setup has been arranged to widen the decline and push it down, that spot selling is forcing the index down regardless, and that given the current trend, you shouldn't rush to buy.
Looking at today's futures, foreigners sold futures & spot to drive the decline during the session and forcibly dragged the index down.
They sold 1.5 trillion won worth of futures in a single day, then started buying again about 45 minutes before market close and bought back 1.5 trillion won worth.
In effect, they're betting that it might rise tomorrow. No matter how you look at it, it seems they thought they had pushed it down too much themselves.
This one is a US market report that came out this morning. The US market report's content is a bit different — it's viewing this as a contrarian buying opportunity. It seems they've judged it to be oversold.
I actually think it's oversold too, but
First, Wall Street is starting its vacation this week, and
Trading volume is low
I thought volatility will inevitably increase at some point, and the short-sellers won't miss this opportunity to push it down.
Looking at what's discussed here, the term "shareholder returns" appears. It seems the view is that since the US market has already announced shareholder returns, it will be hard to break the ongoing upward trend.
If that's the case, then since SK Hynix also announced shareholder returns today, there's now a reason for it to rise as well.
Going in circles, it's now about the 10th time it's the US market's turn to carry the ball.
When a spring is pressed down hard, the rebound is big too.
Yesterday's session felt exactly like that. Micron, which had gone up to $1030 on Monday, got pushed down and down until it fell to $930.
It's pressed down to the point where you wonder if it can really be pushed this far...
The reasons it was pushed down are
The 30-year bond yield is at 5.3%
Anthropic's subscription revenue growth curve has bent
.
Regarding number 1, it has started calming down as of today, and number 2 is an issue that will be dispelled once OpenAI's subscription revenue is disclosed.
In conclusion, these are factors that created short-term bad news.
Thinking about what other factors could break the fundamentals for a rise at this point, honestly the only things I can see are the added funding pressure on big tech from an excessive rise in treasury bond yields, and the Iran war.
Since Trump says he wants to hold talks with North Korea, his attention seems likely to drift somewhat away from Iran,
and as for the rise in bond yields, some experts comment that if attractive prices emerge, demand will eventually appear — though if bond vigilantes push back it could kill demand and create unease, but based on the current CPI and employment-related indicators, there's an expectation that bond yields will stabilize. That seems to be roughly the gist of the commentary.
Of course, it's not an easy issue to be optimistic about, since big tech companies keep issuing corporate bonds.
Since SK Hynix laid the groundwork for a rebound today, it's now up to the US market to deliver...
Given the rebound dynamics, in my heart I'd like to predict a 10 to 15 percent rise for Micron.... (because the harder it's pushed down, the bigger the bounce...)
Realistically, I'd guess it closes up 4 to 5 percent, or ends up flat due to being pushed down by rising bond yields before the market open...
Of course, I'm rooting for a 10~15% rise. That's just my wishful thinking..
If the US market rises big as I hope, then tomorrow the Korean market will also see a big rebound, and SK Hynix — which had been failing to keep pace with Samsung Electronics all this time — now has a higher chance of catching up thanks to today's announcement.
I sincerely hope that today our foreign investor friends draw on SK Hynix's energy and carry it forward into a good rally.
