I am a novice with about 15 years of experience.

I invest (not trade) on a few premises.

The market feeds you; you do not eat by your own ability.

Nobody knows when it will rise or fall. So the more you keep calculating when and making 'judgments', and the more often you trade, the faster your assets vanish at the speed of light.

I simply wait for the moment. (Not trading. When I see people who keep buying and selling, analyzing because it fell, analyzing because it rose, analyzing every hour... I think, huh.. I turned 50 million won into 200 million, and in another four years it is becoming a billion; why are they all so busy.. playing with pocket change so often... In a down market, why not at least save up snack money... that snack money is not money to spend right away, so if you leave it season by season (a 4-5 year interval) the snack money becomes the price of a Genesis. That is the perspective of investing, not trading.)

Therefore this game moves when huge capital flows in. Whatever I judge means little. That is, when the tide is going out overall, buying and selling in it just means playing with pocket change until the pocket change disappears.

I go in when everyone has left and disappeared. (For example, this season, when Samsung Electronics was in the high 40,000s and people were saying it was finished > I took profit at 250,000. I entered Bitcoin at 30 million and > took profit at 160 million.)

※ People around me said, does it not sting to have taken profit at 250,000 when Samsung is at 300,000? Those very people are all stuck now. Meanwhile I made nearly five times. When there is more room to fall than room to gain, it is fine to take profit. Earning more than bank interest is enough. Most people will be stuck and shedding tears)

I think analysis is best used for value investing to find stocks that will rise, or for judging the entry point (with assets that keep growing, having made 4-5 times) in order to prepare to some degree for the liquidity macro pattern that comes and goes every 4-5 years.

In a game that has once broken (the big players who already made a lot and left do not come straight back. They too get stuck in the chart whose volatility they created. They come back only when the market is quiet enough to look finished), I wonder what meaning analysis has..

Liquidity (printing cash) keeps being released. All assets trend upward. But the rise happens in the season when scattered liquidity concentrates into stocks or coins, and this money is finite. That is, there is bound to be a limit to how far it can be pushed up. (Example: after hitting a high, it becomes gradually harder to keep pushing the chart up.)

※ We can absolutely never guess when this rises and when it falls. Not 'when'. Rather, once things reach a certain point, whether it is the stock market or Bitcoin, unless it is going bust, I wait like an angler for the 'moment' it goes up.

I do not know when, but when unhappy news is heard in the papers, and then even that news stops coming, and when people say it is finished, I enter bit by bit in stages.

Nobody can guess it, but eventually the swelling liquidity flows back into this market and, at some point, when I had forgotten about it, the principal has become 200-300%.

It keeps rising.. and then, as the inflection point of the rise gradually shows a broad limit where even gathering all the money in the world, no, in the entire universe, cannot push it higher...

trading volume falls. If the size of the rise is not large you have to be careful. At the start of a bull market a rising entry shape is made with small volume (whales entering), and in the latter part volume explodes, but because the money printed across the entire planet is finite... pushing it higher becomes hard, and if the money that would come in afterwards (however much you print, there is a limit per season) is not there and volume drains away,

I quietly cash out, hold cash for 2-3 years, then watch the next rise for about 1.5 years and get 3-5 times again, poof.

It has been a while since I took profit on Samsung and Hynix. It has been about three months since I moved everything to cash.

I plan to leave it for about two years and then make another 3-4 times. (With this I could do it about four more times up to my 60s.. on a 4-5 year cycle. Since each season grows it about 3-5 times)

For those in a hurry, I wonder why there are so many issues today and tomorrow.. ah? Are they full-timers? Are they short-term traders eating a tidy 300~700%. I think about that..

Whether you intend to add to a lump sum 10-20 years later with something like a US market ETF, or to build 100-200 million for your children by paying into blue chips or ETFs for 10-15 years..

alongside such long-term 'investing (not frequent trading)', there are coins and the like that give you 3-5 times per season.

I think it would be good to try investing over the next 10 years, where a few million won of 'money left over' after living expenses becomes hundreds of millions after 10 years.

Today and yesterday too, the situation of diligently entering and cutting losses somewhere at sea without knowing whether it is high tide or low tide.. (Ah! If you are a full-time trader, good luck with the training) seems far from an enjoyable investing life that protects yourself, so I am posting these brief thoughts.

"Stock posts. Investing posts. Stuck posts. Even without the noise, a million won becomes a hundred million. But have you started now? If you just keep watching the waves up and down on two things, one for long-term holding (like the US market) and one for surge patterns, you will gradually see when to enter. Let us enjoy it together for 10 years. Today does not need to be noisy. None of us are experts. There is no need to pretend to know either. Or is it sympathy you need? Then rather than saying what the market will do, it may be better to console each other by saying it is really hard. And experts cannot guess it either. Because of the premises I listed from number 1 above."

"Those who are stuck may grab the back of their necks reading this, but about ten years ago I too remember cutting losses of more than 300 million. (It was most of my assets at the time.) Since then I have been through three seasons, and just as I wrote above, entering while others wept bitterly, it has become a two-digit hundred-million figure."

Since this is just my own rambling post.. I will delete it myself later. Sorry for the repeated content too.