Unlike yesterday, the path into a rising channel has opened.
It is a textbook V-shaped rebound, and starting a technical rebound with a gap up, it broke through 6226, the upper bound of the downtrend line, with a gap up. Because it broke out very strongly, if it now settles above, there is supply overhang in the 6500~7000 range, so a crossroads has opened between staying here and rising on Monday and Tuesday into a big rising channel.
It has to break through 6904, the 20-day line, as strongly as today to move on to the next rising channel.
So, as I mentioned last time, the US market now has to deliver.
Whether it can deliver what it failed to deliver last week... if it cannot, we enter the downtrend channel again.
The conditions the US market has to meet are
Micron settling above the 20-day line at 938.86$
SOX/S&P500 relative strength on the 20-day line (going above 1.667). Calculated on the SOX index, settling at the 12,041 line (a 6.58% rise needed)
If it does this, entry into a definite rising channel becomes possible.
What is at least hopeful is that, with today's weekly close, the weekly candle shape is as follows.
It is a textbook hammer shape... Because it absorbed all the low-priced supply below and came back up, the shape says it draws a line here and goes up. This evening the stock experts will probably marvel at this shape. It came out in a very textbook form.
And today's foreign futures are as follows.
Foreigners sold all day, then after Kioxia's earnings miss came out they sold 500 billion won around 15:45 and bought 500 billion won at 16:10 near the close.
For now I guess that, as yesterday, they had bought so much in the night futures that they only bought 500 billion.
It reads as meaning they are aiming for a gap up on Monday too, and unless there are variables from the option expiry in the US market and nonsense from Trump, the chance of a gap-up start has risen.
And tonight's small watching point in the US market is whether a short squeeze on Michael Burry's short position comes out or not.
For now, yesterday he added to his Micron short at 880$. (He hit Nvidia additionally as well.)
And his previous last short was at 933.86$.
It is slightly a fork in the road right now: the current day-session price is 896$, which is above 880$ and between it and 933.86$.
From here he has to press it hard at the open to at least push it below 880$, and if a strong rise comes taking the baton from the KOSPI, he has to cut his losses through a short squeeze; the problem is that his own short squeeze pours oil on the burning house, which also endangers the short placed at 933.86$. In the end he would have to abandon both positions.
So today's US market will have many interesting watching points.
Even with today's rise, many people will still be in the red.
The market has shown that semiconductors are still solid, so for the time being just watch the market situation and, while resting over the weekend, think leisurely about what position to take and enjoy it.
Have a good weekend, everyone!
