Today's market close was predicted based on data, and the probability of a decline is 75%.
There's only one possible scenario for the remaining 25%.
It's basically like leaving out water and praying.
If Hynix's earnings surprise on Tuesday shows LTA contracts with upfront payments received reliably, and the price is fixed at the top (bonus points if there are announcements about share buybacks or stock repurchases),
Samsung announces similar LTA contracts and share buyback plans on Wednesday.
On Wednesday, MaSo's earnings report ends everyone's anxiety and shows a stable cash flow for CAPEX investment.
Lam Research and Qualcomm's semiconductor earnings surprise with strong results.
Amazon reports a surge in cloud revenue and demonstrates a stable cash flow for CAPEX investments.
(This one is optional... Sorry to Apple shareholders...) Apple experiences an earnings shock due to device price increases and RAM supply issues.
If at least four of these scenarios occur, the market will be moved, trust will be restored, and we'll see a rebound.
Given that this decision seems predetermined,
it appears that Wall Street has found a fatal flaw in the flow of money created through circular investment structures, which we are unaware of. In fact, circular investment structures = Cisco's old nightmare, and Wall Street is sensitive to them.
Cisco actually had similar LTA contracts, but due to consecutive interest rate hikes, cash flow deteriorated, the contracts were terminated, leaving a huge surplus of routers, and the stock price plummeted.
The difference now is that PER seems meaningless. At the time, Cisco was over 100. Nvidia is currently around 30.
If this negative view persists, it could lead to predictions that AGI will not arrive, and even raise suspicions that current data center investments are excessive.
For now, AI has about a year and a half left. If it fails to achieve significant results during this time, the AGI skepticism could lead to a major bubble burst. Whether this recent crash will prove that or if the market will rebound and provide another opportunity remains to be seen.
For now, it seems safest to buy after seeing all the earnings reports and foreign investors' positions. It may be too late to increase cash holdings, and you might need to use a swing trading strategy, such as resetting your stop-loss or riding the wave during a dead cat bounce to minimize losses. However, swing trading is very risky in this volatile market and difficult for individual investors. In the current situation, sticking to your predetermined stop-loss will be beneficial for future investments.
