I was surprised to see a night gift early this morning,
and I think it's holding up better than expected....
Despite the fact that Friday's night line was strong right before Monday, which is a business day, it plummeted.
There weren't any major issues besides Trump's Iran bombing issue, and CPI wasn't looking good either. Was it a defensive stance?
To talk about today's decline, I think we need to start with the situation in the US.
US investment firms and funds are reducing their semiconductor portfolios and moving everything to big tech.
Looking at the recent trends of big techs, they have been rising a lot after a long period of sideways movement.
In fact, software isn't doing well either. Large CAPEX costs will inevitably lead to lower operating profits.
The reason for the move to big tech is probably because they were relatively undervalued compared to semiconductors. (Of course, PBR and PER show that semiconductors are much lower, but semiconductors are still seen as a cyclical industry.)
Ultimately, we need to see the Q2 earnings of big techs, starting with Google's earnings announcement next week.
So is this the end of the season for semiconductors?
Most experts don't think so. Ultimately, the question of whether semiconductors can break away from the perception that they are a cyclical industry starts with how long big tech's CAPEX costs will continue.
I also believe that this is not the end of the season, but rather a resting period until fall.
If so, it seems likely that this sideways movement will continue for a while. Personally,
I saw hope for the market when it rebounded yesterday.
The fact that foreigners can buy more than 2 trillion won when they think it's undervalued to some extent.
Foreigners seem to have a rebalancing issue, and it seems difficult for them to buy when the KOSPI is above 7200.
The recent strength of the won is also due to the fact that foreigners are not selling, and if exports are booming and economic growth rates are rising, there will be downward pressure on the exchange rate. The fact that this downward pressure was greater than the upward pressure from foreign stock sales is evidence.
If the KOSPI stays around 7200, the won is likely to fall for a while.
It's early in the market today, and looking at the kospi100 spread alone, there seems to be some buying.
(Excluding semiconductors) There is a significant cyclical buying going on. Financial stocks are strong, cosmetics are rebounding, and food and living stocks are rising.
It's a very different picture from Monday when it plummeted.
However, the condition for this cyclical buying is that Samsung Electronics and Hanick must maintain their current decline of -7~-10%. If they fall more than -15%, the entire market will be dragged down, and we may not be able to avoid talking about single stock leverage & inverse 2x again. In a normal market, like the US, cyclical buying should take place.
After 40 minutes into the market, here are my thoughts:
Foreigner selling pressure is not as strong as expected
The variable is what institutions throw. If private equity doesn't throw recklessly, it's okay.
Individuals are currently buying stocks in cash. Since individuals have been selling consistently and there is a seedbed, and the market sentiment has shifted, individuals are not actively buying even though they saw the KOSPI bottom a few days ago. (Of course, this is risky thinking. In this market, doing nothing is the best strategy.)
Around the middle of the market, the direction of foreigners will determine everything. Whether it goes up or down depends on what foreigners are thinking.
That's about it.
There is a Korean interest rate announcement today, and most reports say that the interest rate will be raised. There doesn't seem to be a clear reason not to raise it these days. The current government is very lukewarm about real estate policy, and the domestic economy is not doing well, so there is a slight thought that they might freeze it, but the overall trend is upward.
So what will happen to the US market...? Looking at the option expiration, Micron has a lot of 950 dollar put options, so it seems difficult for it to go above 950. This means that it will be difficult for Korean semiconductors to see a clear rise. Whether this is unfortunate or fortunate remains to be seen, but tomorrow's Korean market will be quiet.
Today, Philadelphia Semiconductor is expected to see a clear technical rebound, although the size of the rebound may not be large.
This week's market ended with a decline. Next week, we will move on from this issue and start thinking about what position to take by looking at Google's Q2 earnings announcement.
Everyone may be mentally exhausted, but once again, doing nothing is the best strategy in this market. Stick with it this week and start thinking about your position next week and fight on.
