사실 전 마이크론이 감동을 못줄거라고 생각하고 현금 확보를 많이 했는데요.
발표 수치 자체가 시장참여자들에게 매우 감동적인 발표인것으로 결론이 나왔습니다.
아마도 오늘 삼전 하닉은 고점 탈환에 가까워질 것으로 보이고, 그동안 해외투자사들의 리밸런싱으로 조정이 왔었지만 아주 짧은 단기조정으로 끝나게 될듯 합니다.
하이닉스 ADR 상장소식과 삼성 자사주 매입 ( 회사에서는 아니고 고려중이다 로 나왔으나 7월 7일 실적 발표와 함께 자사주 매입을 고려했던걸로 보입니다 ) 등의 호재가 있고 이제 10을 벌면 8이 남는 수익을 마이크론이 보여줬으니 엄청난 돈들이 밀려올 것으로 보입니다.
이제 주의해야할 점은
엄청난 레버리지와 투자가 이어질 것이고 앞으로 해외투자사들의 리밸런싱으로 인해 이유 없는 하락이 더 자주 발생될 수 있을 것 같습니다.
현금을 어느정도 들고 이격도를 확인해가면서 비중 조절을 하면서 하락을 이겨내고 상승때는 기류를 타고 이걸 반복해야하는데, 이거에 대한 비중을 어떻게 할것인가 예전엔 7투자 3현금이었다면 이젠 5투자 5현금을 해야할 수도 있습니다.
물론 그냥 투자하고 올해 말까지 잊고 지내셔도 수익을 충분할듯합니다.
7월 연기금 55조 매도가 기다리고 있어서 그 부분이 좀 걸리긴하지만 그래도 7월엔 삼전 하이닉스 실적 발표가 있으니 내내 달릴 가능성이 높아졌습니다.
마이크론이 이런 놀라운 실적을 기록한 것은 몇가지 요인이 있겠지만 최근 3개월동안 DRAM가격이 약 25% 상승한게 제대로 반영을 못하고 계산한게 아닌가 추측이 됩니다.
현재도 DRAM가격은 상승중이고 서버에서 사용되는 ECC 고용량 램의 경우 재고도 없는데다가 가격이 미쳐날뛰는 정도입니다.
제 경험상이라 다른 영역에 몸담고 계신분이라면 동의하지 않으실 수도 있는데,
서버를 사면 예전엔 램값의 비중이 많아봐야 15~20% 정도였는데, 구성에 따라 요즘은 램값이 거의 50~70% 정도 차지합니다. 스토리지용은 SSD가격도 비싸니 거의 4.5(램):3.5(스토리지):2(베어본 + 메인보드 + CPU )정도고요.
한주동안 마음 졸이셨던거 이제 놓으시고 반도체쪽에 투자를 하셨다면 마음을 놓으셔도 될 것 같습니다.
반도체가 오르니 주변 섹터들도 오를 거 같습니다만... 당분간은 반도체 세상이라 순환매 훈풍이 불기는 어려워보이고, 요즘 레버리지 때문에 순환매가 안돌고 전부 반도체 레버리지로 가버리니 오히려 시장의 불균형이 더 심해진 상황입니다.
7월 7일 삼전 실적 발표까지 주식 투자하는 분들 모두 랠리를 즐기시고 성투하시길 바랍니다.
Sebenarnya saya sebelumnya berpikir Micron tidak akan memberikan hasil yang mengesankan dan telah mengamankan banyak uang tunai.
Angka-angka dalam pengumuman itu sendiri terbukti menjadi pengumuman yang sangat mengesankan bagi peserta pasar.
Tampaknya Samsung dan Hynix hari ini akan mendekati pemulihan harga tertinggi, dan meskipun penyesuaian terjadi karena rebalancing investor asing sebelumnya, tampaknya akan berakhir dengan penyesuaian jangka pendek yang sangat singkat.
Ada berita baik seperti listing ADR Hynix dan pembelian kembali saham Samsung sendiri (meskipun perusahaan mengatakan sedang mempertimbangkan, tampaknya mereka mempertimbangkan pembelian kembali saham sendiri bersamaan dengan pengumuman hasil pada 7 Juli), dan karena Micron menunjukkan laba di mana jika Anda menghasilkan 10 maka 8 tersisa, tampaknya uang dalam jumlah besar akan mengalir masuk.
Poin-poin yang harus diperhatikan sekarang adalah
Leverage dan investasi yang besar akan terus berlanjut, dan di masa depan, penurunan tanpa alasan dapat terjadi lebih sering karena rebalancing investor asing.
Anda perlu memegang uang tunai dalam jumlah tertentu, memeriksa divergence, menyesuaikan proporsi untuk mengatasi penurunan, dan menunggangi arus saat naik dengan mengulangi ini, tetapi bagaimana sebaiknya Anda mengatur proporsi untuk ini? Jika sebelumnya adalah 70% investasi dan 30% tunai, sekarang mungkin harus menjadi 50% investasi dan 50% tunai.
Tentu saja, bahkan jika Anda hanya berinvestasi dan lupa sampai akhir tahun ini, keuntungannya mungkin akan cukup.
Penjualan dana pensiun 55 triliun rupiah pada bulan Juli menunggu, bagian itu sedikit mengganggu, tetapi karena ada pengumuman hasil Samsung dan Hynix pada bulan Juli, kemungkinan untuk terus berjalan sepanjang bulan meningkat.
Meskipun ada beberapa faktor di balik pencapaian luar biasa Micron ini, saya menduga bahwa kenaikan harga DRAM sekitar 25% selama 3 bulan terakhir tidak tercermin dengan benar dalam perhitungan.
Saat ini harga DRAM masih terus naik, dan untuk RAM kapasitas tinggi ECC yang digunakan di server, tidak hanya kehabisan stok tetapi harganya juga gila-gilaan.
Berdasarkan pengalaman saya, jika Anda bekerja di bidang lain, Anda mungkin tidak setuju, tetapi
Ketika membeli server, sebelumnya proporsi nilai RAM hanya sekitar 15-20%, tetapi tergantung pada konfigurasi, belakangan ini nilai RAM menempati sekitar 50-70%. Untuk penyimpanan, karena harga SSD juga mahal, proporsinya kurang lebih 4,5 (RAM) : 3,5 (penyimpanan) : 2 (barebone + motherboard + CPU).
Lepaskan kekhawatiran yang Anda alami selama seminggu, dan jika Anda berinvestasi di bidang semikonduktor, tampaknya Anda bisa bersantai sekarang.
Sektor-sektor sekitarnya juga tampaknya akan naik karena semikonduktor naik, tetapi untuk sementara ini adalah dunia semikonduktor jadi sulit untuk angin sepoi rotasi berjalan, dan karena leverage baru-baru ini, rotasi tidak berputar dan semuanya pergi ke leverage semikonduktor, yang malah membuat ketidakseimbangan pasar lebih parah.
Saya berharap semua orang yang berinvestasi saham menikmati reli hingga pengumuman hasil Samsung pada 7 Juli dan meraih kesuksesan investasi.
Actually, I thought Micron wouldn't be impressive, so I secured a lot of cash.
The announced figures themselves turned out to be a very impressive announcement for market participants.
It appears Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix may be approaching a recovery to their highs today, and while there had been adjustments due to foreign investors' rebalancing, it seems it will end as a very short-term correction.
There are positive factors such as Hynix's ADR listing news and Samsung's share buyback (though it came out as being under consideration rather than confirmed by the company, it appears they considered share buyback along with their July 7 earnings release), and now that Micron has shown profits where earning 10 leaves 8 in profit, enormous capital appears to be rushing in.
Now, the point to note is
There will be tremendous leverage and investments, and it seems that unjustified declines may occur more frequently due to foreign investors' rebalancing going forward.
You need to hold some cash and adjust your allocation while checking the divergence to overcome declines, and ride the momentum during increases, and repeat this, but the question is what allocation to make for this. If it used to be 70% investment and 30% cash, now it might need to be 50% investment and 50% cash.
Of course, even if you just invest and forget about it until the end of this year, the returns should be sufficient.
July pension fund selling of 55 trillion won is waiting, which is a bit concerning, but still, since Samsung Electronics and Hynix will announce earnings in July, the possibility of them running up throughout the month has increased.
While there are several factors behind Micron's remarkable results, I suspect that the approximately 25% increase in DRAM prices over the past 3 months was not properly reflected in the calculations.
Currently, DRAM prices are still rising, and for high-capacity ECC RAM used in servers, there's no inventory left and prices are skyrocketing.
Based on my experience, people in different fields may not agree, but
When buying a server, RAM costs used to account for at most 15-20% of the price, but depending on the configuration, nowadays RAM accounts for nearly 50-70%. For storage, since SSD prices are also expensive, it's roughly 4.5 (RAM):3.5 (storage):2 (barebone + motherboard + CPU).
If you've been worried for a week, you can now let go of your worries, and if you've invested in semiconductors, it seems you can relax.
While it seems surrounding sectors will also rise as semiconductors go up, for the time being it's a semiconductor era, so rotation trading seems difficult. Lately, due to leverage, rotation isn't happening as all the capital goes to semiconductor leverage, which has actually worsened market imbalances.
Until Samsung Electronics' earnings announcement on July 7, I wish all stock investors enjoy the rally and achieve successful returns.
